Introduction
The Province conducts its borrowing program responsibly, respecting the people and businesses of Ontario by prudently managing interest on debt (IOD) costs. The interim outlook for the Province’s total funding requirement in 2018–19 is $3.5 billion less than anticipated in the 2018 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (2018 Fall Economic Statement or FES), primarily reflecting a $2.8 billion improvement in the projected 2018–19 deficit to $11.7 billion.
The Province completed $39.6 billion in long-term borrowing in 2018–19. That is a larger amount than any of the annual borrowing programs over the medium-term outlook, including in 2019–20 where the borrowing program is forecast to be $3.6 billion lower at $36.0 billion. As the deficit is reduced, a growing portion of borrowing will be used to refinance maturing debt, rather than finance new debt.
Building on the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry’s (Commission) recommendations and taking into account new information, as well as government actions and decisions to date, the government is now projecting declining deficits over the medium-term starting with a $10.3 billion deficit in 2019–20 which is forecast to go down to $5.6 billion by 2021–22. Net debt-to-GDP is forecast to be 40.7 per cent in 2019–20, lower than the Commission’s revised baseline for 2018–19, before decreasing to 40.6 per cent by 2021–22.
Recognizing the need for meaningful action to address the debt problem, the government is moving forward with a debt burden reduction strategy. Balancing the budget and managing the Province’s debt burden are not ends in themselves. They are the only way to ensure Ontario’s hospitals, schools and other key public services have the sustainable funding they need for generations to come. This strategy follows the recommendations of the Commission, as well as the government’s commitment made in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement to address the Province’s debt burden. Through the implementation of the debt burden reduction strategy, the government is clearly setting out its intent to have Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio reach more sustainable levels and be lower than the Commission’s forecast for 2018–19 of 40.8 per cent. See Chapter 1, Section A: Restoring Fiscal Balance in a Responsible and Sustainable Manner, for more details on Ontario’s debt burden reduction strategy.
Long-Term Public Borrowing
The Province continues to conduct its borrowing program responsibly, respecting the people and businesses of Ontario, through prudent management of the cost of borrowing. The interim outlook for the Province’s total funding requirement in 2018–19 is $3.5 billion less than the forecast in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement. The Province’s 2018–19 long-term borrowing program was $39.6 billion.
The projected annual borrowing programs in the medium-term outlook are all lower than the completed 2018–19 borrowing program with forecasts of $36.0 billion in 2019–20, $32.8 billion in 2020–21, and $31.5 billion in 2021–22. Over this period, the Province’s total long-term borrowing will primarily be used to refinance maturing debt. The Province is also modestly increasing short‑term borrowing over the outlook period to keep the proportion of short-term debt to total debt outstanding in the middle of the six to eight per cent range that has been maintained over the last decade.
Item | 2018 FES | In-Year Change | Interim1 2018–19 |
Medium-Term Outlook 2019–20 |
Medium-Term Outlook 2020–21 |
Medium-Term Outlook 2021–22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deficit/(Surplus) | 14.5 | (2.8) | 11.7 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 5.6 |
Investment in Capital Assets | 12.8 | (0.9) | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 10.5 |
Non-Cash Adjustments | (7.4) | 1.1 | (6.3) | (7.7) | (7.7) | (7.7) |
Loans to Infrastructure Ontario | 0.4 | (0.2) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Other Net Loans/Investments | 0.0 | (0.8) | (0.8) | 0.7 | 0.0 | (0.3) |
Debt Maturities/Redemptions | 21.9 | 0.0 | 21.9 | 27.5 | 26.4 | 24.1 |
Total Funding Requirement | 42.1 | (3.5) | 38.6 | 42.5 | 36.8 | 32.5 |
Canadian Pension Plan Borrowing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | – | – |
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing | – | – | – | (1.2) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents | 3.5 | 9.8 | 13.3 | (5.3) | (3.0) | – |
Pre-borrowing in 2017–18 | (12.4) | – | (12.4) | – | – | – |
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing | 33.2 | 6.3 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 32.8 | 31.5 |
Table 4.1 Footnotes:
[1] Interim represents the 2019 Ontario Budget projections for the 2018–19 fiscal year.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
The government will seek approval from the Legislature for borrowing authority to meet the Province’s requirements.
Approximately 77 per cent of 2018–19’s borrowing was completed in Canadian dollars, largely through syndicated issues, but also floating rate notes and a new Green Bond issue. This percentage is well above the Province’s target for Canadian dollar borrowing to be approximately 70 per cent of total borrowing for the fiscal year, but in line with the 78 per cent of borrowing in Canadian dollars completed at the time of the 2018 Fall Economic Statement.
The government continues to search for efficiencies in the borrowing program. Therefore, the Province has discontinued sales of Ontario Savings Bonds due to low sales and high administrative costs. Despite the discontinuation of future sales, all outstanding bonds continue to be safe and guaranteed, and the Province will honour these bonds until the time of redemption or maturity. Winding down the Ontario Savings Bonds program is one way the government is rethinking its programs to deliver value for money and protect the services that matter most to the people of Ontario.
The Province will continue to regularly borrow in currencies other than the Canadian dollar to diversify its investor base. This helps reduce Ontario’s overall borrowing costs and ensures the Province will continue to have access to capital if domestic market conditions become more challenging. The Province will be revising its target for Canadian dollar borrowing to be a range, rather than a fixed point, to recognize that market conditions change rapidly and the Province needs to continue to be flexible in its approach to borrowing to minimize interest on debt costs. For 2019–20, that range will be set at 70 to 80 per cent of total borrowing.
As committed to in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement, the Province has updated the Green Bond program to support the government’s approach to addressing environmental challenges. Green Bonds are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather resistant infrastructure and energy efficiency and conservation projects.
On January 31, 2019, the Province issued its fifth Green Bond for $950 million. Ontario is currently the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, with five issues totalling $4.0 billion issued and $3.5 billion currently outstanding. The Province plans to issue its next Green Bond in 2019–20.
Net Debt
In 2018–19, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 40.2 per cent, or 0.3 percentage points lower than the 40.5 per cent forecast in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement and 0.6 percentage points lower than the Commission’s forecast.1 However, it is 2.6 percentage points higher than was forecast in the 2018 Ontario Budget primarily due to an increase in the deficit resulting from the Commission’s findings on revising the previous government’s accounting treatment of global adjustment refinancing and jointly sponsored pension plans (JSPPs). The revised accounting treatment for JSPPs includes the impact of adopting the accounting treatment on a retroactive basis from 2001–02 onward, which added a cumulative $14.6 billion to net debt. There is no impact on the Province’s borrowing requirements, either going forward or looking back to 2001–02, from this accounting change.
Building on the Commission’s recommendations and taking into account new information, as well as government actions and decisions to date, the government is projecting declining deficits over the medium-term of $10.3 billion in 2019–20, $6.8 billion in 2020–21, and $5.6 billion in 2021–22. Net debt-to-GDP is forecast at 40.7 per cent in 2019–20, lower than the Commission’s revised baseline for 2018–19, before decreasing over the medium-term outlook.
A key feature of the new proposed Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 (FSTAA) is strengthening government requirements related to setting out goals and plans for reducing the Province’s debt burden. It would require the government to report annually in the Budget on the progress made in relation to the debt burden reduction strategy. The government is already meeting these requirements, even before the legislation is enacted, by clearly setting out its intent to have Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio reach more sustainable levels and be lower than the Commission’s forecast for 2018–19 of 40.8 per cent. The government is actively pursuing a debt burden reduction approach to public finance to improve the fiscal position of the Province and lower the debt burden. See Chapter 1, Section A: Restoring Fiscal Balance in a Responsible and Sustainable Manner for more details on Ontario’s debt burden reduction strategy.
When compared with the other Provinces, Ontario had the second highest net debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada in 2018–19.
Net debt per capita has increased from $13,162 per person or $52,648 per family of four, at the beginning of the 2008–09 global economic downturn to a projected $23,979 per person, or $95,912 per family of four in 2018–19. This rate of increase per person was 4.4 per cent per year greater than Ontario’s inflation rate over the same period. The population in the core working ages of 25 to 64 years makes up the majority of taxpayers in Ontario. At $44,246 per person, the debt burden per person for these Ontarians is even greater.
Compared with the other provinces, Ontario had the second highest net debt per capita in Canada, after Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario continues to have the highest subnational debt of any jurisdiction in the world.
Cost of Debt
The global decline in interest rates over the last 25 years showed signs of reversing last year. This 25 year decline has meant that interest on debt has not risen as quickly as the Province’s debt, especially over the last 10 years, in spite of the Province’s debt load more than doubling over that period. However, with interest rates now potentially rising, the Province faces higher interest on debt (IOD) costs going forward. Chart 4.7 shows the effective interest rate that the Province is paying on its total debt portfolio of over one-third of a trillion dollars; after declining for a quarter century, these rates are forecast to rise.
The interest rates that the Province must pay on new or refinanced debt issued every year have been rising for the past two years. As shown in Chart 4.8, which shows historical borrowing rates and the forecast used to estimate future IOD, the average interest cost for 2018–19 has increased by about three-quarters of a percentage point since the low point in 2016–17, reinforcing the need for the debt burden reduction strategy.
An additional one percentage point increase in interest rates above forecast would add an additional $350 million in interest costs in the first full year. To protect the Province from this increase in interest rates, the government has extended the term of its debt to lower the amount that must be refinanced every year. Going back to the beginning of 2010–11, to lock in low rates, Ontario has issued $80.1 billion of bonds longer than 30 years, or approximately one-quarter of total debt, including $9.6 billion in 2018–19.
As a result, the average term of Ontario’s debt portfolio has been extended, from 9.7 years in 2009–10 to 10.6 years in 2018–19. The Province monitors interest rates daily. It continually assesses and determines, based on demand for its debt and how high interest rates rise across the yield curve, whether it remains cost-effective to continue to extend the term of its debt. The Province currently plans to continue to keep the average term of its debt in the same extended range that it has been over the past five years.
A high level of debt crowds out other government priorities and is unfair to future generations. It also limits the Province’s flexibility in responding to economic downturns. This is why the government is taking action to manage Ontario’s debt load. Since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement, the government has reduced the projected deficit for 2018–19 by $2.8 billion to $11.7 billion. This is a $3.3 billion improvement from the inherited $15.0 billion baseline deficit forecast identified by the Commission.
The government remains committed to reducing the Province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable level by implementing the new debt burden reduction strategy. The government is clearly setting out its intent to have Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio reach more sustainable levels and be lower than the Commission’s forecast for 2018–19 of 40.8 per cent. See Chapter 1, Section A: Restoring Fiscal Balance in a Responsible and Sustainable Manner for more details on Ontario’s debt burden reduction strategy.
While net debt-to-GDP is the primary measure of sustainability of the debt burden the Province faces, another ratio that measures the affordability of debt is the IOD-to-revenue ratio. It represents how much the Province needs to spend on interest for every revenue dollar received. The current forecast is 8.6 cents of interest cost for every dollar of revenue in 2019–20. This means that the Province is spending 8.6 cents of every dollar it receives to pay interest, instead of using this revenue to provide essential services to the people of Ontario, or to lower taxes.
The government is committed to transparency with respect to reporting on measures of debt affordability. This includes updating the public on the amount of every dollar the government receives that goes towards interest to service the Province’s debt load, or the IOD-to-revenue ratio.
Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
Coming out of the financial crisis, the Province created large, liquid 10- and 30-year benchmark domestic bond issues in 2009–10 in response to investor demand. This lowered Ontario’s borrowing costs while enhancing the Province’s access to capital. However, as a result of these large bond issues, the Province will have large cash outflows on single days commencing in 2019–20, rather than having maturities spread more evenly throughout the year. In anticipation of the need for cash reserves to meet these requirements for large outflows on a single day, the Province has built larger cash reserves, as noted in Chart 4.11.
The Province’s short-term borrowing program in the Canadian and U.S. dollar money markets is relatively small, accounting for only six per cent of Ontario’s debt. This is at the lower end of the six to eight per cent range it has been at over the last 10 years. The unused short-term borrowing capacity that this provides, combined with high levels of unrestricted liquid reserves, ensures the Province will always have adequate liquidity to meet its financial obligations.
Consolidated Financial Tables
Debt1 | 2014–15 | 2015–16 | 2016–17 | Actual 2017–18 |
Interim2 2018–19 |
Plan 2019–20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Publicly Held Debt — Bonds3 | 280,442 | 293,935 | 299,356 | 315,247 | 334,946 | 344,471 |
Publicly Held Debt — Treasury Bills | 14,631 | 13,921 | 16,120 | 17,528 | 18,132 | 20,132 |
Publicly Held Debt — U.S. Commercial Paper4 | 6,304 | 6,987 | 5,369 | 3,865 | 3,260 | 3,260 |
Publicly Held Debt — Infrastructure Ontario (IO)5 | 950 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
Publicly Held Debt — Other | 317 | 301 | 296 | 287 | 268 | 256 |
Total Publicly Held Debt | 302,644 | 315,444 | 321,441 | 337,227 | 356,906 | 368,419 |
Non-Public Debt | 12,316 | 11,969 | 11,661 | 11,433 | 11,030 | 10,000 |
Total Debt | 314,960 | 327,413 | 333,102 | 348,660 | 367,936 | 378,419 |
Less: Holdings of own Ontario bonds and treasury bills | (3,913) | (7,663) | (8,832) | (11,775) | (12,930) | (100) |
Revised Total Debt6 | 311,047 | 319,750 | 324,270 | 336,885 | 355,006 | 378,319 |
Cash and Temporary Investments Excluding Broader Public Sector (BPS) | (21,033) | (18,102) | (14,590) | (19,571) | (19,380) | (26,910) |
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments |
290,014 | 301,648 | 309,680 | 317,314 | 335,626 | 351,409 |
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities7 | (10,353) | (10,415) | (9,615) | (6,772) | (5,114) | (4,085) |
BPS Net Debt | 14,896 | 15,124 | 14,012 | 13,292 | 12,929 | 12,619 |
Net Debt | 294,557 | 306,357 | 314,077 | 323,834 | 343,441 | 359,943 |
Non-Financial Assets8 | (97,892) | (103,343) | (108,138) | (114,811) | (122,682) | (129,905) |
Accumulated Deficit | 196,665 | 203,014 | 205,939 | 209,023 | 220,759 | 230,038 |
Table 4.2 Footnotes:
[1] Includes debt issued by the Province and Government Organizations, including the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC).
[2] Interim represents the 2019 Ontario Budget projections for the 2018–19 fiscal year.
[3], [4] All balances are expressed in Canadian dollars. The balances above reflect the effect of related derivative contracts.
[5] Infrastructure Ontario’s (IO) interim 2018–19 debt is composed of Infrastructure Renewal Bonds ($300 million). IO's debt is not guaranteed by the Province.
[6] In compliance with draft Public Sector Accounting Board standards, Ontario will begin to present public debt less of any investments in the Province's own bonds and treasury bills beginning in 2018–19.
[7] Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities include accounts receivable, loans receivable, advances and investments in Government Business Enterprises (GBE’s) offset by accounts payable, accrued liabilities, deferred revenue and capital contributions, pensions and other employee future benefits, and other liabilities.
[8] Non-financial assets include the tangible capital assets of the Province and broader public sector.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Item | 2020–21 | 2021–22 |
---|---|---|
Total Debt | 385.7 | 394.0 |
Cash and Temporary Investments | (24.0) | (25.6) |
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments | 361.7 | 368.4 |
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities | (1.1) | 2.7 |
Broader Public Sector Net Debt | 11.7 | 11.3 |
Net Debt | 372.3 | 382.4 |
Non-Financial Assets | (136.4) | (142.0) |
Accumulated Deficit | 235.8 | 240.4 |
Table 4.3 Footnotes:
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Chart Descriptions
Chart 4.1: 2018–19 Borrowing
This year’s long-term public borrowing of $39.6 billion has been completed. This consisted of $26.0 billion (66 per cent) of Canadian dollar syndicated bonds, $2.7 billion (7 per cent) of Canadian dollar Floating Rate Notes, $0.95 billion of Green Bonds (2 per cent), $0.3 billion (<1 per cent) of Ontario Savings Bonds, $6.6 billion (17 per cent) of U.S. dollar bonds, $2.3 billion (6 per cent) of Euro bonds, $0.1 billion (<1 per cent) of Australian-dollar bonds.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.2: Domestic and International Borrowing
The Province’s total long-term borrowing in 2018–19 was $39.6 billion: $30.6 billion was borrowed in the Canadian dollar market and $9.0 billion was borrowed in foreign currencies.
Year | Canadian Dollar ($ Billions) | Foreign Currencies ($ Billions) | Total ($ Billions) |
---|---|---|---|
2008–09 | 19.0 | 9.7 | 28.7 |
2009–10 | 21.4 | 22.4 | 43.8 |
2010–11 | 23.5 | 16.4 | 39.9 |
2011–12 | 28.4 | 6.5 | 34.9 |
2012–13 | 26.4 | 10.2 | 36.6 |
2013–14 | 29.4 | 6.6 | 36.0 |
2014–15 | 31.4 | 8.4 | 39.8 |
2015–16 | 25.8 | 6.2 | 32.1 |
2016–17 | 19.9 | 7.1 | 27.0 |
2017–18 | 21.1 | 12.8 | 33.9 |
2018–19 | 30.6 | 9.0 | 39.6 |
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.3: Net Debt-to-GDP
Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 40.2 per cent in 2018–19.
Year | Net Debt-to-GDP (%) |
---|---|
1990–91 | 13.4 |
1991–92 | 17.1 |
1992–93 | 21.1 |
1993–94 | 26.7 |
1994–95 | 28.4 |
1995–96 | 30.2 |
1996–97 | 31.3 |
1997–98 | 30.6 |
1998–99 | 29.5 |
1999–00 | 32.1 |
2000–01 | 29.3 |
2001–02 | 28.3 |
2002–03 | 26.8 |
2003–04 | 27.5 |
2004–05 | 26.8 |
2005–06 | 27.9 |
2006–07 | 27.1 |
2007–08 | 26.6 |
2008–09 | 27.9 |
2009–10 | 32.4 |
2010–11 | 34.5 |
2011–12 | 36.7 |
2012–13 | 38.2 |
2013–14 | 39.7 |
2014–15 | 40.6 |
2015–16 | 40.3 |
2016–17 | 39.6 |
2017–18 | 39.2 |
2018–19 | 40.2 |
2019–20 | 40.7 |
2020–21 | 40.7 |
2021–22 | 40.6 |
Notes: Net debt has been restated to include broader public-sector net debt, starting in 2005–06. Net debt has been restated from 2001–02 onward for the adjustments resulting from the revised accounting treatment of jointly sponsored pension plans.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 4.4: Provincial Net Debt-to-GDP in 2018–19
Ontario has the second highest net debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada at 40.2 per cent
Province | Net Debt-to-GDP (Per Cent) |
---|---|
Newfoundland and Labrador | 45.2 |
Ontario | 40.2 |
Quebec | 40.0 |
New Brunswick | 38.5 |
Nova Scotia | 34.6 |
Manitoba | 34.2 |
Prince Edward Island | 32.6 |
Saskatchewan | 14.8 |
British Columbia | 14.6 |
Alberta | 8.2 |
Sources: Provincial Budgets and Updates as of March 22, 2019; The Conference Board of Canada (February 2019); and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 4.5: Net Debt Per Capita
Ontario’s net debt per capita was $24.0 thousand per person and $44.2 thousand per person in the core working ages of 25 to 64 in 2018–19.
Year | Net Debt Per Capita ($ Thousands) | Net Debt Per Capita Core Working Ages (25-64) ($ Thousands) |
---|---|---|
1990–91 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
1991–92 | 4.7 | 8.8 |
1992–93 | 5.8 | 10.9 |
1993–94 | 7.5 | 14.0 |
1994–95 | 8.4 | 15.5 |
1995–96 | 9.3 | 17.2 |
1996–97 | 9.8 | 18.1 |
1997–98 | 10.0 | 18.5 |
1998–99 | 10.1 | 18.6 |
1999–00 | 11.7 | 21.4 |
2000–01 | 11.3 | 20.8 |
2001–02 | 11.2 | 20.4 |
2002–03 | 11.0 | 20.0 |
2003–04 | 11.5 | 20.8 |
2004–05 | 11.5 | 20.9 |
2005–06 | 12.4 | 22.4 |
2006–07 | 12.4 | 22.3 |
2007–08 | 12.5 | 22.6 |
2008–09 | 13.2 | 23.7 |
2009–10 | 14.9 | 26.8 |
2010–11 | 16.6 | 29.9 |
2011–12 | 18.2 | 32.9 |
2012–13 | 19.4 | 35.1 |
2013–14 | 20.4 | 37.1 |
2014–15 | 21.6 | 39.4 |
2015–16 | 22.4 | 40.8 |
2016–17 | 22.6 | 41.4 |
2017–18 | 23.0 | 42.3 |
2018–19 | 24.0 | 44.2 |
2019–20 | 24.6 | 45.1 |
2020–21 | 25.0 | 46.2 |
2021–22 | 25.4 | 47.0 |
Notes: Net debt has been restated to include broader public-sector net debt, starting in 2005–06. Net debt has been restated from 2001–02 onward for the adjustments resulting from the revised accounting treatment of jointly sponsored pension plans.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 4.6: Provincial Net Debt Per Capita in 2018–19
Ontario had the second highest debt load per person in Canada, after Newfoundland and Labrador.
Province | Net Debt Per Capita ($ thousands) |
---|---|
Newfoundland and Labrador | 29.3 |
Ontario | 24.0 |
Quebec | 20.7 |
Manitoba | 18.6 |
New Brunswick | 18.3 |
Nova Scotia | 15.8 |
Prince Edward Island | 14.8 |
Saskatchewan | 10.4 |
British Columbia | 8.7 |
Alberta | 6.5 |
Sources: Provincial Budgets and Updates as of March 22, 2019; Statistics Canada (October and November 2018); and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Chart 4.7: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
The effective interest rate (calculated as a weighted average) is forecast to be 3.6 per cent on the Province’s total debt, unchanged from 2017–18.
Year | Effective Interest Rate (%) |
---|---|
1990–91 | 10.9 |
1991–92 | 10.7 |
1992–93 | 10.1 |
1993–94 | 9.5 |
1994–95 | 9.8 |
1995–96 | 9.4 |
1996–97 | 9.0 |
1997–98 | 9.0 |
1998–99 | 8.6 |
1999–00 | 8.4 |
2000–01 | 8.2 |
2001–02 | 7.6 |
2002–03 | 7.2 |
2003–04 | 6.7 |
2004–05 | 6.4 |
2005–06 | 6.1 |
2006–07 | 6.0 |
2007–08 | 5.8 |
2008–09 | 5.2 |
2009–10 | 4.6 |
2010–11 | 4.5 |
2011–12 | 4.4 |
2012–13 | 4.1 |
2013–14 | 3.9 |
2014–15 | 3.7 |
2015–16 | 3.6 |
2016–17 | 3.5 |
2017–18 | 3.6 |
2018–19 | 3.6 |
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2017–2018) and Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.8: Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
Average annual Ontario borrowing rates have begun to rise, with the forecast for 2018–19 having increased by about one percentage point since the low point in 2016–17.
Year | Average Ontario Borrowing Rates (%) |
---|---|
2008–09 | 3.38 |
2009–10 | 3.27 |
2010–11 | 3.42 |
2011–12 | 3.07 |
2012–13 | 2.50 |
2013–14 | 3.19 |
2014–15 | 2.67 |
2015–16 | 2.25 |
2016–17 | 2.09 |
2017–18 | 2.31 |
2018–19 | 2.87 |
2019–20 | 3.44 |
2020–21 | 3.73 |
2021–22 | 4.40 |
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2017–2018) and Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.9: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
The average term of Ontario’s debt portfolio has been extended from 9.7 years in 2009–10 to 10.6 years. The weighted-average borrowing term for 2018–19 was 12.9 years.
Year | 2009–10 | 2010–11 | 2011–12 | 2012–13 | 2013–14 | 2014–15 | 2015–16 | 2016–17 | 2017–18 | 2018–19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weighted-Average Borrowing Term (Years) | 8.1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 12.9 |
Debt Portfolio Average Term (Years) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.6 |
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.10: Interest on Debt-to-Revenue Ratio
Ontario’s Interest on Debt-to-Revenue Ratio is forecast to be 8.3 per cent in 2018–19.
Year | IOD-to-Revenue (%) |
---|---|
1990–91 | 7.7 |
1991–92 | 8.8 |
1992–93 | 10.8 |
1993–94 | 13.9 |
1994–95 | 14.5 |
1995–96 | 14.6 |
1996–97 | 14.8 |
1997–98 | 14.2 |
1998–99 | 14.3 |
1999–00 | 15.5 |
2000–01 | 15.0 |
2001–02 | 14.2 |
2002–03 | 12.9 |
2003–04 | 12.9 |
2004–05 | 11.1 |
2005–06 | 9.7 |
2006–07 | 8.9 |
2007–08 | 8.4 |
2008–09 | 8.7 |
2009–10 | 8.9 |
2010–11 | 8.8 |
2011–12 | 9.1 |
2012–13 | 9.0 |
2013–14 | 9.1 |
2014–15 | 8.9 |
2015–16 | 8.5 |
2016–17 | 8.3 |
2017–18 | 7.9 |
2018–19 | 8.3 |
2019–20 | 8.6 |
2020–21 | 8.6 |
2021–22 | 8.8 |
Note: The years from 2005–06 to 2019–20 have been restated for broader public sector line-by-line presentation.
Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2017–2018), and Ontario Financing Authority.
Chart 4.11: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
The forecasted average unrestricted liquid reserve for 2018–19 was $32.6 billion.
Year | 2009–10 | 2010–11 | 2011–12 | 2012–13 | 2013–14 | 2014–15 | 2015–16 | 2016–17 | 2017–18 | 2018–19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ Billions | 14.4 | 19.4 | 20.2 | 23.3 | 24.9 | 23.6 | 21.7 | 21.1 | 30.1 | 32.6 |
Source: Ontario Financing Authority.
Footnotes
- [1] To ensure consistency and comparability of numbers between the current outlook, the Commission’s baseline forecast and prior year results, the Commission’s Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP estimate was revised from 40.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement.