Ontario’s Action Plan: Responding to COVID‑19, March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Update

Contents

Preface

Foreword

• Introduction
• Economic and Fiscal Update

Chapter 1: Economic Update

• Introduction
• Recent Economic Performance
  • Global Economic Developments
• Economic Planning Assumptions
• Risks
• Summary of Key Economic Indicators
• Regular Reporting on the Economy

Chapter 2: Fiscal Update

• Introduction
• Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
• Details of Revenue
  • 2019–20 Revenue Performance
  • 2020–21 Revenue Outlook
  • Changes since the 2019 Budget
  • Risks to the Revenue Outlook
• Details of Expense
  • Expense Outlook
  • Contingent Liabilities
  • Ensuring Fiscal Prudence
• Improved Transparency in Financial Reporting
• Details on Ontario’s Finances

Chapter 3: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Introduction
• Long-Term Public Borrowing
  • Green Bond Program
• Cost of Debt
• Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
• Consolidated Financial Tables

Annex: Details of Tax Measures

• Overview
• Temporary Doubling of the Employer Health Tax Exemption
• Providing Interest and Penalty Relief for Ontario Businesses when They Need It Most
• Introducing the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
• Postponing Planned Property Tax Reassessment
• Summary of Measures

List of Tables

Foreword

• Ontario’s Fiscal Plan — Details

Chapter 1: Economic Update

• Table 1.1: Announced or Implemented Stimulus Measures
• Table 1.2: The Ontario Economy, 2018 to 2021
• Table 1.3: Ontario Economic Accounts Release Dates

Chapter 2: Fiscal Update

• Table 2.1: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
• Table 2.2: Summary of 2019–20 Revenue Changes since the 2019 Budget
• Table 2.3: Summary of the Revenue Outlook
• Table 2.4: Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
• Table 2.5: Summary of Changes to the Expense Outlook since the 2019 Budget
• Table 2.6: Impact of Changes in Provincial Reporting
• Table 2.7: Revenue
• Table 2.8: Total Expense
• Table 2.9: Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 2.10: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Chapter 3: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 3.1: Borrowing Program
• Table 3.2: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit

Annex: Details of Tax Measures

• Table A.1: Summary of Measures

List of Charts

Chapter 1: Economic Update

• Chart 1.1: Ontario’s Employment Growth
• Chart 1.2: Global Growth Slowed Broadly in 2019
• Chart 1.3: Slowing Manufacturing Activity
• Chart 1.4: Oil Prices Decline
• Chart 1.5: Stock Market Declines
• Chart 1.6: Government Bond Rates Lower
• Chart 1.7: Canadian Dollar Declines

Chapter 2: Fiscal Update

• Chart 2.1: Estimated Revenue Impact of the COVID‑19 Outbreak

Chapter 3: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 3.1: 2019–20 Borrowing
• Chart 3.2: Domestic and International Borrowing
• Chart 3.3: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
• Chart 3.4: Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
• Chart 3.5: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
• Chart 3.6: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels

Annex: Details of Tax Measures

• Chart A.1: Illustrative Examples of Tax Relief Provided by an Increase to the Employer Health Tax Exemption
• Chart A.2: Northern Ontario: Regions Eligible for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
• Chart A.3: Southern Ontario: Regions Eligible for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit