Backgrounder: A Look at Ontario’s Economy

Ontario is a leader in economic growth and job creation at a time when the world is facing economic uncertainty. Lower oil prices, a more competitive Canadian dollar and a solid U.S. economy have helped Ontario’s economy grow and create jobs, and these factors should help this growth continue.

While the government recognizes the uncertainty that people in Ontario and Canada are facing, Ontario’s economy is projected to be one of the fastest growing in Canada. The government’s plan is building new partnerships and making strategic investments to continue growing the economy and creating more jobs. More than 600,000 jobs have been created since the recessionary low in June 2009. Ontario is projected to create more than 300,000 jobs by the end of 2019, which would bring the total to more than 900,000 net new jobs over a 10-year period.

Jobs for Today

Ontario’s strong economy is helping create high-quality jobs and has reduced the province’s unemployment rate to below the national average for the first time since 2005.

Ontario’s unemployment rate is below the Canadian average in January 2016

Ontario’s Unemployment Rate	Canada’s Unemployment Rate
6.7%	7.2%

Ontario’s unemployment rate dropped 0.5 percentage points from 2014 to 2015

In 2014 Ontario’s Unemployment Rate	In 2015 Ontario’s Unemployment Rate
7.3%	6.8%

Since the global recession, the majority of the net new jobs in Ontario are full time, in the private sector and in industries that pay above-average wages.

Jobs for Tomorrow

The Province is projected to create more jobs and lower its unemployment rate as Ontario continues to be among the leaders in provincial economic growth.

Ontario’s unemployment rate is projected to fall every year from 2016 to 2019

2016 Unemployment Rate	2017 Unemployment Rate	2018 Unemployment Rate	2019 Unemployment Rate
6.6%	6.4%	6.3%	6.1%

Ontario is projected to create more than 300,000 net new jobs
by the end of 2019

2016 Net New Jobs	2017 Net New Jobs	2018 Net New Jobs	2019 Net New Jobs
78,000	85,000	82,000	79,000

Real GDP Growth for Today

Ontario’s real GDP growth is expected to outpace the national average in 2015

Ontario’s Real GDP Growth	Canada’s Real GDP Growth
2.5%	1.2%

Real GDP Growth for Tomorrow

Ontario’s real GDP is projected to grow on average by 2.2 per cent a year from 2016 to 2019

2016 Real GDP Growth	2017 Real GDP Growth	2018 Real GDP Growth	2019 Real GDP Growth
2.2%	2.4%	2.2%	2.0%

Path to Balance

The government’s plan to eliminate the deficit is working, on target and on schedule. The 2016 Budget advances the plan while continuing to invest in the economy, people and a healthy, clean and prosperous low-carbon future. The government is projecting a deficit of $5.7 billion in 2015–16 and is on track to beat its deficit target for the seventh year in a row. Looking forward, the government is now projecting a deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016–17 and a balanced budget in both 2017–18 and 2018–19.

As an indication of greater sustainability in the Province’s management of its debt, net debt-to-GDP is expected to peak at 39.6 per cent in 2015–16, remain level in 2016–17 and begin to decline in 2017–18.

Two Ways Ontario Is Eliminating the Deficit

1. Transforming Government and Managing Costs

Ontario is managing spending and improving the effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of its services, while continuing to review programs, including public services and internal administration. This approach will help Ontario:

2. Addressing the Underground Economy

Businesses contribute to the underground economy when they fail to report their income for tax purposes or avoid other regulatory obligations. Participating in the underground economy creates an unfair advantage for these businesses and puts the safety of consumers and workers at risk. By combating these actions, Ontario is protecting consumers and workers, making sure that businesses pay their fair share of taxes and helping ensure the sustainability of essential services, such as health care and education.

Chart Descriptions

Ontario’s Plan to Eliminate the Deficit

This bar chart shows projections for Ontario’s fiscal outlook in 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18 and 2018–19. The 2015–16 deficit is projected to be $5.7 billion, a $2.8 billion improvement compared to the $8.5 billion deficit forecasted in the 2015 Budget. In 2016–17, Ontario’s deficit is projected to be $4.3 billion, a $0.5 billion improvement compared to the $4.8 billion deficit forecasted in the 2015 Budget. Ontario is projected to balance its budget in both 2017–18 and 2018–19.

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