The Honourable Victor Fedeli, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
Promises Made, Promises Kept
- A Government That Will Be Accountable
- A Government That Trusts Taxpayers
- A Government That Will Respect You
- A Government That Will Create and Protect Jobs
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Plan to Balance the Budget: Ontario’s Recovery Plan
- Ontario’s Debt Challenge
- Ontario’s Capital Plan Outlook
Chapter 1: A Plan for the People
Section A: Restoring Fiscal Balance in a Responsible and Sustainable Manner
- Introduction
- Balancing the Budget in a Responsible Manner
- Tackling the Debt Burden
- New Legislation to Strengthen Fiscal Accountability and Reporting
- Putting Sustainability at the Centre of Ontario’s Fiscal Policy
- Enhancing Transparency and Public Reporting
- Strengthening Accountability through Compliance
- Strengthening Legislation, Eliminating Loopholes and Ensuring Compliance with the Law
- Actively Pursuing a Debt Reduction Approach to Public Finance
- Enhancing Public Reporting on Debt Sustainability and Affordability
- Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
- A Plan to Improve Outcomes and Manage Government Spending Responsibly
- Driving Public Sector Leadership Performance
- Progress on the Line-by-Line Review
- A Balanced, Sustainable and Reasonable Approach to Managing Compensation
- Additional Review and Accountability of Government Spending
- Calling for a Review of Federal Transfers
Section B: Putting People First
- Introduction
- The Ontario Government — Working For You
- Transit and Transportation
- Putting Drivers First: A Blueprint for Ontario’s Auto Insurance System
- Expanding Choice and Respecting Consumers
- Strengthening Consumer Protection
- Respecting Ontario Property Taxpayers
- Lowering the Cost of Energy
- Simpler, Better, Faster Government Services
- World-Class Infrastructure
Section C: Protecting What Matters Most
- Introduction
- Respecting and Supporting Families
- Protecting Health Care for the People
- Ending Hallway Health Care
- Building and Renewing Ontario Hospitals
- Modernizing Ontario’s Public Health Units
- Building a Partnership with Ontario’s Doctors
- Reviewing Ontario’s Publicly Funded Drug Benefit Program
- Expanding the Scope of Practice for Health Professions for Faster, More Patient-Centred Care
- Improving Treatment for Mental Health and Addictions
- Protecting OHIP against Misuse
- Enhancing the Quality and Efficiency of Ontario’s Public Health Care System
- Doing What Is Right for Ontario’s Aging Population
- Building an Education System For Success
- Improving Safety and Security In Communities
- Increasing the Housing Supply in Ontario
- Renewing the Partnership with Municipalities
- Protecting the Environment and the Economy
Section D: Open for Business, Open for Jobs
- Introduction
- Open for Business, Open for Jobs
- Driving Prosperity: The Future of Ontario’s Automotive Sector
- Supporting Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
- Building an Innovative and Sustainable Postsecondary Sector
- Building a Skilled Workforce
- Reducing Trade Barriers and Protecting Jobs
- Addressing the Impacts of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement
- Opposing Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
- Standing Up against “Buy America” Policies
- Supporting Ontario’s Softwood Lumber Producers
- Breaking Down Interprovincial Trade Barriers
- Fighting the Federal Government’s Carbon Tax
- Supporting Pipeline Construction
- Lowering Electricity Bills for Businesses
- Supporting Northern and Rural Communities
- Reviewing the Far North Act, 2010
- Developing the Ring of Fire
- Creating a Mining Working Group
- Reviewing the Forestry Sector
- Sharing Resource Revenues
- Expanding the Northern Ontario Internship Program
- Reviewing the Environmental Assessment Act
- Connecting Northern Remote Communities to the Transmission Grid
- Expanding Access to Natural Gas
- Improving Northern Transportation
- Improving Broadband Service to Underserved Areas
- Hunting and Monitoring Cormorants
- Big Game Management Advisory Committee
- Partnering With Farmers and Agricultural Communities
- Strengthening Ontario Tourism, Culture and Sport
- Creating Confidence in Capital Markets and Financial Services
- Reducing Red Tape in the Pension Sector
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Underperforming Economy Since 2003
- Growing the Economy
- Weighing the Upside and Downside Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Delivering Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Improving Ontario’s 2018–19 Interim Fiscal Performance
- Key Changes Since the 2018 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Ensuring Fiscal Prudence
- Details on Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Long-Term Public Borrowing
- Net Debt
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Consolidated Financial Tables
Annex: Details of Tax Measures
- Overview
- Ontario Childcare Access and Relief from Expenses (CARE) Tax Credit
- Providing Tax Relief for Families When They Need it the Most
- Review of Cultural Media Tax Credit Certification
- Cutting Red Tape for Video Game Developers
- Encouraging Consolidation in the Electricity Sector
- The Low-income Individuals and Families Tax (LIFT) Credit
- Ontario Job Creation Investment Incentive
- Tax Evasion and Avoidance
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
- Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Recovery Plan — Details
- Ontario’s Borrowing Program
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: A Plan for the People
- Table 1.1 Commission Recommendations and Implementation Status
- Table 1.2 Hydro One Executive Total Direct Compensation Comparison
- Table 1.3 Summary of Additional Long-Term Care Beds Projects
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.3 Outlook for External Factors
- Table 2.4 Private-Sector Forecasts Project Slower Growth
- Table 2.5 Impacts of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.6 The Ontario Economy, 2017 to 2024
- Table 2.7 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2018 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Compared with 2019 Budget
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Table 3.2 Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry’s Adjustments to the 2018 Budget Surplus/(Deficit) Projection for 2018–19
- Table 3.3 2018–19 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.4 Summary of Revenue Changes since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
- Table 3.5 Summary of Expense Changes since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
- Table 3.6 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.7 Summary of Medium-Term Cannabis-Related Revenue
- Table 3.8 Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
- Table 3.9 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.10 Selected Expense Sensitivities
- Table 3.11 Revenue
- Table 3.12 Ministries’ Vision Statements and Expense
- Table 3.13 Total Expense
- Table 3.14 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.15 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 2018–19 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- Table 4.3 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Annex: Details of Tax Measures
- Table A.1 Ontario CARE Tax Credit Rate Calculation and Examples
- Table A.2 Examples of Average Ontario and Federal Personal Income Tax Relief from the Child Care Expense Deduction
- Table A.3 Examples of Filling the Gap in Child Care Support
- Table A.4 Summary of Measures
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
Chapter 1: A Plan for the People
- Chart 1.1 Ontario’s Path to Balance the Budget
- Chart 1.2 Net Debt Growth
- Chart 1.3 Ontario and Quebec Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 1.4 Net Debt Per Capita
- Chart 1.5 Actions to Reduce the Debt Burden
- Chart 1.6 Strengthening Fiscal Accountability and Reporting
- Chart 1.7 Progress on the Line-by-Line Review
- Chart 1.8 The New “Ontario Line”
- Chart 1.9 Ontario’s New Subway Transit Plan for the GTHA
- Chart 1.10 Ontario Has the Fewest Alcohol Retail Outlets per Capita in Canada
- Chart 1.11 Additional Support for Families
- Chart 1.12 Filling the Gap in Child Care Support
- Chart 1.13 Jenny and George
- Chart 1.14 Alice, Raymond, Avery and Jack
- Chart 1.15 Reducing the Estate Administration Tax Burden
- Chart 1.16 Examples of Hospital Projects in Planning
- Chart 1.17 Examples of Recently Approved School Projects
- Chart 1.18 RBC Housing Affordability Measures — Toronto Area
- Chart 1.19 Ontario Average Rent Growth Has Accelerated in Recent Years
- Chart 1.20 Ontario and the Rest of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2005 to 2016
- Chart 1.21 Open for Business, Open for Jobs Strategy
- Chart 1.22 Providing Savings for Ontario Businesses
- Chart 1.23 Boosting Ontario’s Attractiveness for Business Investment
- Chart 1.24 First Year Business Tax Savings on a $1 Million Investment
- Chart 1.25 Providing Savings for Ontario Manufacturers
- Chart 1.26 Modernizing Business Support Programs
- Chart 1.27 Driving Prosperity’s Three Strategic Pillars
- Chart 1.28 Raj the Restaurant Owner
- Chart 1.29 Prosperity Auto Parts Manufacturing
- Chart 1.30 Estimated Average Tuition Savings for Select Programs in 2019–20
- Chart 1.31 Ontario Steel Trade with the United States
- Chart 1.32 Ontario’s Interprovincial Trade of Goods and Services
- Chart 1.33 Ontario and the Rest of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2005 to 2016
- Chart 1.34 Capital Markets Plan
- Chart 1.35 Title Protection for Financial Planners Financial Advisors
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Ontario Growth Lagged Canada in 12 of the Past 16 Years
- Chart 2.2 Strengthening Labour Market
- Chart 2.3 Signs of Positive Growth
- Chart 2.4 Global GDP Growth in 2018
- Chart 2.5 Slowing Economic Growth
- Chart 2.6 Solid Business Investment Growth Projected
- Chart 2.7 Housing Market
- Chart 2.8 Employment Gains Expected to Continue
- Chart 2.9 Household Spending Growth to Moderate
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 2018–19 Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.4 Provincial Net Debt-to-GDP in 2018–19
- Chart 4.5 Net Debt Per Capita
- Chart 4.6 Provincial Net Debt Per Capita in 2018–19
- Chart 4.7 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.8 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue Ratio
- Chart 4.11 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
Annex: Details of Tax Measures
- Chart A.1 CARE Tax Credit Calculation: A Family with One Child (Age 2)
- Chart A.2 Reducing and Simplifying Estate Administration Tax
- Chart A.3 Comparison of Charges for an Estate Valued at $50,000
- Chart A.4 Income Tax Deduction Before and After the Immediate Writeoff Measure
- Chart A.5 Income Tax Deduction Before and After the Accelerated Investment Incentive