Contents
Foreword
Ontario’s Plan for Economic Growth and Job Creation
Engaging Ontarians
Chapter 1: Building Prosperity and Creating Jobs
Section A: Fostering a More Innovative and Dynamic Business Environment
- Introduction
- Business Growth Initiative
- Investing in a Low-Carbon Economy
- Strategic Partnerships
- Lowering Business Costs
- Beverage Alcohol
- Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation Modernization
- Supporting the Sharing Economy
- Promoting Social Enterprises
- Strengthening the Financial Services Sector
- Toronto as a Global Financial Hub
Section B: Building Tomorrow’s Infrastructure Now
- Introduction
- Updates on Infrastructure Development
- Ongoing Investments in Transportation
- Child Care and Education Infrastructure
- Postsecondary Education Infrastructure
- Health and Community Infrastructure
- Energy Infrastructure
- Asset Optimization
- Alternative Financing and Procurement
Section C: Investing in People’s Talents and Skills
- Introduction
- Transforming Child Care and Early Learning
- Supporting Every Child, Reaching Every Student
- Investing in Tomorrow’s Workforce
Section D: Transforming Health Care
- Focusing Health Care on the Patient — Meeting Current and Emerging Challenges
- Faster Access to Health Care
- Connecting Services and Providing More Coordinated Care in the Community
- Long-Term Care
- Keeping Ontarians Healthy
- Protecting Ontario’s Health Care System
Section E: Towards a Fair Society
- Long-Term Affordable Housing Strategy
- Supporting Vulnerable Populations
- Supporting Workers and Families in a Changing Labour Market
- Economic Empowerment
- Building Inclusive Communities
- Supporting Opportunities for Indigenous Peoples
Section F: Strengthening Retirement Security
- Progress on the Ontario Retirement Pension Plan
- Collaboration on a National Pension Solution
- Strengthening and Modernizing Workplace Pension Plans
- Additional Legislative Measures
Section G: Making Everyday Life Easier
- Reducing the Cost of Living
- Protecting Consumers
- Increasing Convenience and Choice
- Easy-to-Use Public Services Online
Chapter 2: A Balanced Path to a Balanced Budget
Section A: Ontario’s Path to Balance
Section B: Transforming Government and Managing Costs
- Program Review, Renewal and Transformation
- Strategic Plan for Public Service Renewal
- Managing Compensation
- Government Transparency, Financial Management and Fiscal Accountability
Section C: Addressing the Underground Economy and Maintaining Tax Fairness
Chapter 3: Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Section A: Economic Outlook
- Shifting Global Economic Environment
- Ontario’s Recent Economic Performance
- Ontario’s Economy Outpacing Canada
- Ontario Creating High-Quality Jobs
- Ontario Exports Up Strongly
- External Economic Environment
- Oil Prices
- Financial Markets
- U.S. Economy
- Key Forecast Assumptions
- Outlook for Ontario’s Economic Growth
- Risks to Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
Section B: Fiscal Outlook
Section C: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Long-Term Public Borrowing
- Ensuring Preferred Market Access
- Green Bond Update
- Term of Borrowing
- Interest on Debt Savings and Affordability
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Net Debt-to-GDP
- Total Debt Composition
- Cost of Debt
- Limiting Risk Exposure
- The Province’s Use of Derivatives
- Reducing Ontario’s Electricity Sector Stranded Debt
- Consolidated Financial Tables
Chapter 4: Together Towards a Stronger Ontario and a Stronger Canada
- Collaborative Action to Face Shared Challenges
- Recent Progress on Shared Priorities
- Getting It Right: Principles to Guide the Next Phase of Federal–Provincial Collaboration
- Continued Collaboration with Ontario’s Partners
Chapter 5: A Fair and Sustainable Tax System
Section A: Tax Measures
- Personal Income Tax Credits
- Paralleling Federal Personal Income Tax Measures
- A Simpler Personal Income Tax
- Business Tax Credits
- Other Measures
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
Section B: Strengthening Ontario’s Property Tax and Assessment System
- Business Property Tax Capping Program
- Vacant Unit Rebate and Vacant/Excess Land Subclasses
- Property Tax Rate Calculation Adjustment
- Provincial Land Tax
- Strengthening Ontario’s Assessment System
- Governance of MPAC
- Power Dam Special Payment Program
- Value-Added Farm Activities
List of Tables
Chapter 1: Building Prosperity and Creating Jobs
- Table 1.1 Dispelling Myths about Cap and Trade
- Table 1.2 Cap and Trade — Cost to Energy Consumers
- Table 1.3 Detailed Breakdown of Supports through Green Investment Fund
- Table 1.4 Recent Strategic Investments through the Jobs and Prosperity Fund
- Table 1.5 Recent Regional Development Investments
- Table 1.6 Opportunity for WSIB Rate Reductions
- Table 1.7 Recent Social Enterprise Support through the Social Enterprise Demonstration Fund
- Table 1.8 ORPP Phase-In and Contribution Schedule
Chapter 2: A Balanced Path to a Balanced Budget
Chapter 3: Economic and Fiscal Outlook
- Table 3.1 Ontario Economic Outlook
- Table 3.2 Outlook for External Factors
- Table 3.3 Impacts of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- Table 3.4 The Ontario Economy, 2014 to 2019
- Table 3.5 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 3.6 Changes in Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2015 Budget Compared with 2016 Budget
- Table 3.7 Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.8 2015–16 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.9 Summary of Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget
- Table 3.10 Summary of Expense Changes since the 2015 Budget
- Table 3.11 Change in Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook since the 2015 Budget
- Table 3.12 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.13 Personal Income Tax Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.14 Sales Tax Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.15 Corporations Tax Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.16 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget
- Table 3.17 Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
- Table 3.18 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.19 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Changes since the 2015 Budget
- Table 3.20 Selected Expense Sensitivities
- Table 3.21 Revenue
- Table 3.22 Total Expense
- Table 3.23 Details of Other Expense
- Table 3.24 2016–17 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.25 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
- Table 3.26 Support for Health Care, Charities, Problem Gambling and Related Programs, Municipalities and Ontario First Nations
- Table 3.27 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation
- Table 3.28 Consolidated Derivative Portfolio Notional Value
- Table 3.29 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- Table 3.30 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Chapter 5: A Fair and Sustainable Tax System
List of Charts
Chapter 1: Building Prosperity and Creating Jobs
- Chart 1.1 Ontario Accounted for Almost Half of Venture Capital Investment in Canada in 2015
- Chart 1.2 Changing Composition of International Exports
- Chart 1.3 Ontario’s Cap-and-Trade Program
- Chart 1.4 Corporate Income Tax Rates in Canada
- Chart 1.5 Ontario’s Internationally Competitive Corporate Income Tax Rate
- Chart 1.6 Ontario’s Marginal Effective Tax Rate on New Business Investment Has Been Cut in Half
- Chart 1.7 Development of an Integrated Strategy to Support the Sharing Economy
- Chart 1.8 Significant Infrastructure Investments
- Chart 1.9 Moving Ontario Forward — Outside the GTHA
- Chart 1.10 Updates on Regional Express Rail
- Chart 1.11 Moving Ontario Forward — GTHA
- Chart 1.12 Moving Ontario Forward
- Chart 1.13 Highest Level of Education Achieved by Age — Ontario, 2015
- Chart 1.14 Shared Goals for a Stronger Workforce
- Chart 1.15 Postsecondary Participation Rates of 18- to 21-Year-Olds Living at Home, by Parental Income, 2013
- Chart 1.16 Illustrative Scenario: OSAP Grants for Dependent College Students Living Away from Home
- Chart 1.17 Illustrative Scenario: OSAP Grants for Dependent Arts and Science University Students Living Away from Home
- Chart 1.18 Illustrative Scenario: Lower Expected Parental Contributions
- Chart 1.19 Supporting Working Families
Chapter 2: A Balanced Path to a Balanced Budget
- Chart 2.1 Ontario’s Record against Deficit Targets
- Chart 2.2 Ontario’s Plan to Eliminate the Deficit
- Chart 2.3 Net Debt-to-GDP, 1990–91 to 2018–19
- Chart 2.4 Ratio of Program Expense to GDP, 2009–10 to 2018–19
- Chart 2.5 Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue, 1990–91 to 2018–19
- Chart 2.6 Sources of Provincial Revenue, 2014–15
- Chart 2.7 Ontario Public/Private Wage Settlement Trends
Chapter 3: Economic and Fiscal Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Shifting Global Economic Environment
- Chart 3.2 Ontario Real GDP Growth Outpacing Canada
- Chart 3.3 Ontario’s Strong Recovery from the Recession
- Chart 3.4 Ontario Government’s Net Fiscal Contribution
- Chart 3.5 Key Ontario Economic Indicators Outpacing Canada in 2015
- Chart 3.6 Unemployment Rate Declining in Ontario
- Chart 3.7 Employment Gains Concentrated in Full-Time, Private-Sector, Above-Average Wage Industries
- Chart 3.8 Unemployment Rates Down in All Ontario Regions
- Chart 3.9 Ontario Exports Up Strongly
- Chart 3.10 Emerging Markets Weighing on Global Growth
- Chart 3.11 Volatility in Commodity and Financial Markets
- Chart 3.12 Lower Oil Prices Providing Savings in Ontario
- Chart 3.13 Lower Canadian Dollar Having an Impact
- Chart 3.14 Solid U.S. GDP Growth to Continue
- Chart 3.15 Ontario Economic Growth Expected to Broaden
- Chart 3.16 Ontario’s Labour Market Expected to Improve
- Chart 3.17 Exchange-Rate-Sensitive Exports Already Benefiting from Lower Canadian Dollar
- Chart 3.18 Industry Operating Close to Full Capacity, Expected to Trigger Increased Investment Activity
- Chart 3.19 Consumer Spending Expected to Be Supported by Gains in Employment and Wages
- Chart 3.20 Demographic Fundamentals to Support Housing Starts over the Medium Term
- Chart 3.21 Increasing Competition May Limit Growth Prospects
- Chart 3.22 Mortgage Carrying Costs Modestly Elevated Relative to Long-Term Trends
- Chart 3.23 Composition of Revenue, 2016–17
- Chart 3.24 Composition of Total Expense, 2016–17
- Chart 3.25 2015–16 Borrowing
- Chart 3.26 Canadian Dollar and Foreign Currency Borrowing
- Chart 3.27 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowing in Years
- Chart 3.28 Interest on Debt: Budget Forecast versus Actual
- Chart 3.29 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue Ratio
- Chart 3.30 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 3.31 Net Debt-to-GDP and Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP
- Chart 3.32 Total Debt Composition as of March 31, 2016
- Chart 3.33 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 3.34 Net Interest Rate Resetting and Foreign Exchange Exposure
Chapter 4: Together Towards a Stronger Ontario and a Stronger Canada
Updated: February 25, 2016
Published: February 25, 2016