Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook

Introduction

The government remains on track to achieve fiscal balance by 2026–27 while making targeted investments to support families, keep costs down and rebuild the economy. The 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review is projecting a deficit of $6.6 billion in 2024–25. Over the medium term, the government projects a deficit of $1.5 billion in 2025–26 followed by a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27. This is a significant improvement compared to the 2024 Budget and reflects the government’s commitment to balancing the budget, reducing the deficit and putting Ontario’s finances on a sustainable path.

The recently released Public Accounts of Ontario 2023–2024 demonstrates Ontario’s fiscally responsible approach with a recorded deficit of $0.6 billion in 2023–24. This demonstrates that the province’s fiscal approach can keep taxes low, make the necessary investments for a growing population and improve the province’s financial position.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.8 per cent in 2024–25. Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio fell to a 12-year low last year, and Ontario’s plan keeps this ratio below levels seen since 2011–12.

Table 3.1
Fiscal Summary
($ Millions)
  Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Medium-Term Outlook
2025–26
Medium-Term Outlook
2026–27
Revenue 205,936 212,632 220,753 230,730
Expense — Programs 195,207 205,547 206,812 213,328
Expense — Interest on Debt 11,376 12,722 13,973 14,507
Total Expense 206,583 218,269 220,785 227,835
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (647) (5,637) (32) 2,895
Reserve 1,000 1,500 2,000
Surplus/(Deficit) (647) (6,637) (1,532) 895
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 37.3% 37.8% 37.9% 37.5%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 198.1% 201.8% 202.6% 200.2%
Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 5.5% 6.0% 6.3% 6.3%

Table 3.1 footnotes:

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current and medium-term outlook primarily reflect information available as of September 30, 2024.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Key Changes in 2024–25 Since the 2024 Budget

Ontario’s 2024–25 deficit is projected to be $6.6 billion — an improvement of $3.2 billion from the outlook published in the 2024 Budget. This reflects updated economic and revenue information and higher contingencies to mitigate near-term risks.

Revenues in 2024–25 are projected to be $212.6 billion, $6.9 billion higher than forecast in the 2024 Budget. This increase is largely driven by higher-than-expected taxation revenue. This forecast is based on information available as of September 30, 2024.

Program expense in 2024–25 is projected to be $205.5 billion, $5.0 billion higher than the forecast in the 2024 Budget. This is primarily due to a one-time taxpayer rebate to individuals and families, and a top-up of the Contingency Fund to provide flexibility to protect important public services and quickly address unforeseen expense events that could materialize in the second half of the fiscal year.

Ontario is forecast to pay $12.7 billion in interest costs in 2024–25, about $1.2 billion lower than the forecast in the 2024 Budget.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is now projected to be 37.8 per cent in 2024–25, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 39.2 per cent forecast in the 2024 Budget. The net debt-to-GDP ratio decreased mainly due to lower than previously projected deficits.

The 2024–25 outlook also maintains a $1.0 billion reserve, unchanged from the 2024 Budget, to protect the fiscal plan against unforeseen adverse changes in Ontario’s revenue and expense forecasts for the remainder of the fiscal year. This is part of the government’s flexible fiscal plan to respond to uncertainty and risks.

Table 3.2
2024–25 In-Year Fiscal Performance
($ Millions)
  2024 Budget Current Outlook In-Year Change
Revenue 205,690 212,632 6,942
Expense — Programs 200,583 205,547 4,964
Expense — Interest on Debt 13,913 12,722 (1,191)
Total Expense 214,496 218,269 3,773
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (8,806) (5,637) 3,169
Reserve 1,000 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) (9,806) (6,637) 3,169

Table 3.2 footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Revenue Update

The 2024–25 total revenue outlook is $212.6 billion, $6.9 billion higher than projected in the 2024 Budget and the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances. The increase in the revenue forecast since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances is mainly due to a stronger economic outlook in 2024 and higher taxation revenue from the projected impact of the federal government’s Budget 2024 announcement of the proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate.1 Taxation revenue has been partially offset by the proposed six‐month extension of the reduction to the Gasoline Tax by 5.7 cents per litre and Fuel Tax by 5.3 cents per litre.

Table 3.3
Key Changes to 2024–25 Revenue Projections
($ Millions)
  2024–25
2024 Budget Total Revenue 205,690
Revenue Changes in the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Personal Income Tax 2,829
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Corporations Tax 2,963
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Sales Tax 1,130
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Employer Health Tax 314
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Ontario Health Premium 120
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Land Transfer Tax (261)
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Gasoline and Fuel Taxes (309)
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — All Other Taxes 187
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Total Taxation Revenue 6,972
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Government of Canada Transfers 60
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Government Business Enterprises (92)
Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Other Non-Tax Revenue 2
Total Revenue Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances 6,942
Total Revenue Changes Since the 2024 Budget 6,942
2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Revenue Outlook 212,632

Table 3.3 footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Key changes in the revenue outlook compared with the 2024 Budget and 2024–25 First Quarter Finances forecast include:

  • Personal Income Tax revenue projections increased by $2,829 million, mainly due to higher‐than‐expected revenues from the processing of 2023 and prior years’ tax returns and stronger growth in compensation of employees in 2024. Personal Income Tax revenue is also higher due to the impact of the federal government’s proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate.
  • Corporations Tax revenue projections increased by $2,963 million, mainly due to higher-than-expected corporate profitability in the first half of 2024. Corporations Tax revenue is also higher due to the impact of the federal government’s proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate.
  • Sales Tax revenue projections increased by $1,130 million, mainly due to the expectation of higher official federal Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) entitlements for 2023 as indicated by actual Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) collections to date.
  • Employer Health Tax projection increased by $314 million, mainly reflecting stronger growth in compensation of employees in 2024.
  • Ontario Health Premium projection increased by $120 million, mainly due to higher‐than‐expected revenues from the processing of 2023 and prior years’ tax returns and stronger growth in compensation of employees in 2024.
  • Land Transfer Tax revenue projections are lower by $261 million, mainly reflecting slower-than-expected housing market activity in 2024.
  • Gasoline Tax and Fuel Tax projections combined decreased by $309 million, mostly due to the proposed six‐month extension of the reduction to the Gasoline Tax by 5.7 cents per litre and Fuel Tax by 5.3 cents per litre. See the Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives for further information.
  • Projections for All Other Taxes combined increased by $187 million, which is mainly due to the new vaping duty from the Coordinated Vaping Products Taxation Agreement with the federal government and higher Electricity Payments-in-Lieu of Taxes that were partly offset by lower Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes.
  • Government of Canada Transfers projections increased by $60 million, reflecting higher projected federal funding under the Canada Health Transfer and Canada Social Transfer programs due to Ontario’s increasing share of the national population.
  • Net Income from Government Business Enterprises projections decreased by $92 million. This reflects several factors, including net income from the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation, which is projected to be lower, primarily driven by economic impacts on consumer discretionary spending. Additionally, the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) net income is projected to decline due to the impact of the strike in July, lower sales projections due to lower alcohol consumption and the transitory impact of the alcohol marketplace modernization. These declines are partly offset by higher projected net income from Ontario Power Generation, largely due to projected Ontario Nuclear Funds’ realized gains.
  • Other Non‐Tax Revenues projections combined are higher by $2 million, mainly due to higher Power Supply contract recoveries reflecting higher than forecast electricity generation and rates.

Expense Update

Since the release of the 2024 Budget and 2024–25 First Quarter Finances, changes to program expense primarily relate to a one-time taxpayer rebate to individuals and families, additional funding for health services and a top-up to the Contingency Fund. The 2024–25 total expense outlook is projected to be $218.3 billion, $3.8 billion higher than both the 2024 Budget and the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances. This increase is below the $6.9 billion improvement in revenue projections since the 2024 Budget, which reflects the government’s priority to reduce the deficit.

Table 3.4
Key Changes to 2024–25 Total Expense Projections
($ Millions)
  2024–25
2024 Budget Total Expense 214,496
Total Expense Changes in the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Taxpayer Rebate 3,000
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Health Sector Supports 1,000
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Ontario Public Service Compensation Settlement 607
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Implementing Ontario’s Alcohol Marketplace Modernization 87
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Frankfort Family Reena Residence 8
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — All Other Changes 93
Total New Allocated Spending 4,794
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Top-Up of the Contingency Fund 900
Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances — Drawdown of the Contingency Fund (730)
Total Program Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances 4,964
Interest on Debt Change Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances (1,191)
Total Expense Changes Since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances 3,773
Total Expense Changes Since the 2024 Budget 3,773
2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Expense Outlook 218,269

Table 3.4 footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Key investments since the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances include:

  • $3.0 billion for a proposed one-time $200 taxpayer rebate to each eligible adult Ontario tax filer and each eligible child under the age of 18;
  • $1.0 billion to address pressures related to compensation and growing demands in the health sector;
  • $606.8 million for Ontario Public Service compensation costs, including those related to collective agreement outcomes;
  • $86.5 million as part of the audited up to $225 million in payments to The Beer Store for the reimbursement of costs towards supporting a stable transition to a more open and convenient alcohol beverage marketplace;
  • $7.7 million to support the Frankfort Family Reena Residence in constructing new space for employment services, sports programs, meeting rooms and wellness programs, serving people with developmental disabilities and other people in the community; and
  • An increase of $93.4 million, primarily due to industrial supports, infrastructure and other technical changes.

Additionally, the Contingency Fund has been increased by an additional $900 million to support greater flexibility in the fiscal plan to help protect against unforeseen changes and mitigate expense risks.

Interest on Debt expense is projected to be $12.7 billion, about $1.2 billion lower than the forecast in the 2024 Budget and the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances.

Prudence in 2024–25

The Ontario government continues to maintain a responsible and flexible fiscal plan to respond to uncertainty and risks. The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 requires Ontario’s fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the province’s revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontario’s economic performance. As a result of higher-than-anticipated revenue levels, the government has chosen to allocate a portion of revenue to contingencies.

The 2024 Budget included a reserve of $1.0 billion in 2024–25, which has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook. In addition, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks. For 2024–25, after a $0.9 billion top-up in the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the Contingency Fund has a projected balance of $1.7 billion.

Medium-Term Fiscal Plan

The government is projecting deficits of $6.6 billion in 2024–25 and $1.5 billion in 2025–26, followed by a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27. This reflects a significant improvement compared to the 2024 Budget and reflects the government’s commitment to balancing the budget, reducing the deficit and putting Ontario’s finances on a sustainable path.

Chart 3.1: Current Surplus/(Deficit) Outlook Compared to the 2024 Budget
Accessible description of Chart 3.1

Medium-Term Revenue Outlook

Over the medium term, revenue is forecast to increase from $212.6 billion in 2024–25 to $230.7 billion in 2026–27.

Table 3.5
Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
($ Billions)
  Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Medium-Term Outlook
2025–26
Medium-Term Outlook
2026–27
Revenue — Personal Income Tax 50.8 54.8 57.2 60.9
Revenue — Sales Tax 39.9 40.0 41.0 43.4
Revenue — Corporations Tax 23.1 27.9 27.6 28.8
Revenue — Ontario Health Premium 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.6
Revenue — Education Property Tax 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9
Revenue — All Other Taxes 17.3 18.1 20.2 21.2
Total Taxation Revenue 141.9 151.7 157.2 165.6
Government of Canada 34.3 36.3 37.6 38.7
Income from Government Business Enterprises 7.4 6.7 7.5 7.5
Other Non-Tax Revenue 22.3 18.0 18.5 18.9
Total Revenue 205.9 212.6 220.8 230.7

Table 3.5 footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

The taxation revenue outlook reflects the impact of finalized 2023–24 results and updated economic growth outlook since the 2024 Budget. See Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook for more details.

The primary driver of the forecast for Personal Income Tax revenue is the outlook for growth in the compensation of employees. Personal Income Tax includes an estimated $0.9 billion over the 2024–25 to 2026–27 period from the potential impact of the federal government’s proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate. Personal Income Tax revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.2 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

The Sales Tax revenue projection is based primarily on the outlook for household consumption spending. Sales Tax revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

The forecast for Corporations Tax revenue is mainly driven by the outlook for growth in the net operating surplus of corporations. Corporations Tax revenue includes an estimated $2.4 billion over the 2024–25 to 2026–27 period from the potential impact of the federal government’s proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate. Corporations Tax revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

The Ontario Health Premium revenue forecast is based primarily on the outlook for growth in the compensation of employees. Ontario Health Premium revenue is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

Education Property Tax revenue is based primarily on the outlook for growth in the property assessment base resulting from new construction activities. Revenues are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.4 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

Revenues from All Other Taxes are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 7.0 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27. This includes revenues from the Employer Health Tax; Land Transfer Tax; Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes; and volume-based taxes such as the Gasoline Tax, Fuel Tax and Tobacco Tax.

The forecast for Government of Canada Transfers is based on existing federal–provincial funding agreements and formulas. Federal transfers are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.1 per cent from 2023–24 to 2026–27.

The outlook for Income from Government Business Enterprises (GBEs) is based on Ontario Ministry of Finance estimates for Hydro One Ltd. (Hydro One) and projections provided by Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the Ontario Cannabis Store (OCS), the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO), the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG) and iGaming Ontario (iGO). Net incomes of GBEs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 per cent from 2023–24 to 2026–27.  

The forecast for Other Non-Tax Revenue is based on projections provided by government ministries and provincial agencies. The outlook for Other Non-Tax Revenue is projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 5.4 per cent from 2023–24 to 2026–27.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook Scenarios

To illustrate the potential impacts of elevated economic uncertainty, the Ontario Ministry of Finance has developed two plausible alternative scenarios that the economy could take over the next several years. See Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook for more details.

Based on the two alternative nominal GDP economic scenarios, two taxation revenue scenarios were developed. The Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios each represent a potential path intended to illustrate a broader range of possible outcomes but should not be considered as the best case or the worst case.

In the Faster Growth scenario, total taxation revenue is $9.9 billion higher in 2026–27 than the Planning Projection, while in the Slower Growth scenario, total taxation revenue is $8.6 billion lower.

Table 3.6
Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
($ Billions)
  2024–25p 2025–26p 2026–27p
Faster Growth Scenario 154.1 164.6 175.6
Planning Projection 151.7 157.2 165.6
Slower Growth Scenario 149.5 150.5 157.0

Table 3.6 footnotes:

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources and alternative scenarios.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

In the event that the alternative economic scenarios materialize, as opposed to the Planning Projection, Ontario’s fiscal plan would also change as a result.

Under the Faster Growth scenario, the fiscal outlook may improve to a deficit of $4.2 billion in 2024–25 and reach surpluses of $6.2 billion in 2025–26 and $11.4 billion in 2026–27. However, if the Slower Growth scenario takes place instead, the fiscal outlook may deteriorate to deficits of $8.8 billion in 2024–25, $8.4 billion in 2025–26 and $8.3 billion in 2026–27.

Chart 3.2: Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
Accessible description of Chart 3.2

In these alternative outlook scenarios, program expenses are assumed to be unchanged compared to the medium‐term expense outlook, and only revenue and interest on debt are adjusted.

Medium-Term Expense Outlook

The total expense outlook is projected to grow from $218.3 billion in 2024–25 to $227.8 billion in 2026–27 as the government is continuing to make key investments in health care, education, infrastructure and economic development as part of its plan to build a stronger Ontario and respond to an increased demand on services and infrastructure due to a growing population.

Program expense is projected to increase every year, growing at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent between 2023–24 and 2026–27.

Table 3.7
Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
($ Billions)
  Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Medium-Term Outlook
2025–26
Medium-Term Outlook
2026–27
Programs — Health Sector 85.5 86.0 88.1 90.0
Programs — Education Sector1 37.2 37.6 38.8 39.5
Programs — Postsecondary Education Sector 13.2 12.2 12.5 13.1
Programs — Children, Community and Social Services Sector 19.4 20.0 20.1 20.1
Programs — Justice Sector 6.0 6.2 5.7 5.7
Programs — Other Programs 33.9 43.6 41.6 45.0
Total Programs 195.2 205.5 206.8 213.3
Interest on Debt 11.4 12.7 14.0 14.5
Total Expense 206.6 218.3 220.8 227.8

Table 3.7 footnotes:

[1] Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Highlights of changes to the program expense outlook over the medium term include the following:

  • Health Sector expense is projected to increase from $86.0 billion in 2024–25 to $90.0 billion in 2026–27. The growth is primarily due to investments in:
    • Addressing the increasing demand for health services, including funding for hospitals and cancer treatment services to respond to Ontario’s growing and aging population;
    • Enhancing mental health and addictions services through the Roadmap to Wellness: A Plan to Build Ontario’s Mental Health and Addictions System;
    • Improving and transforming the home and community care sector to allow more people to stay at home longer;
    • Supporting health human resources initiatives to optimize the existing workforce and recruit and retain health care providers;
    • Improving quality of care in the long-term care sector; and
    • Supporting commitments consistent with arbitration awards and labour agreements.
  • Education Sector expense is projected to increase from $37.6 billion in 2024–25 to $39.5 billion in 2026–27. Key investments include:
    • The continued implementation of the Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreement, which reduces average out-of-pocket child care fees for parents across the province;
    • Investments to prepare students for the jobs of tomorrow, including through the back-to-basics learning strategy, which emphasizes reading, writing and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education, as well as launching career coaching for students in Grades 9 and 10; and
    • Funding to address growing enrolment across the province and commitments consistent with labour agreements reached.
  • Postsecondary Education Sector expense is projected to increase from $12.2 billion in 2024–25 to $13.1 billion in 2026–27. This is mainly due to:
    • Increased supports to institutions to strengthen postsecondary education in Ontario by implementing a Postsecondary Education Sustainability Fund to help address immediate financial sustainability challenges; and
    • Investments in Health Human Resources initiatives, including the expansion of nursing and medical school seats and the Ontario Learn and Stay Grant, to train and retain more health care workers.
  • Children, Community and Social Services Sector expense is projected to increase from $20.0 billion in 2024–25 to $20.1 billion in 2026–27. This growth is primarily due to investments that:
    • Address increasing operational costs for community organizations that support vulnerable populations, including children in care and those with special needs, people with developmental disabilities, and people who have experienced gender‐based violence and human trafficking; and
    • Increase the monthly core allowances for the Ontario Disability Support Program and the maximum monthly amount for the Assistance for Children with Severe Disabilities program.
  • Justice Sector expense is projected to decrease from $6.2 billion in 2024–25 to $5.7 billion in 2026–27. Investments in the sector include: 
    • Time-limited funding for modernization initiatives, including the Public Safety Radio Network and the Next Generation 9-1-1 system;
    • Funding to repair, renovate or replace policing facilities in First Nation and Inuit communities through the First Nations and Inuit Policing Facilities Program;
    • Continuing investments in the Justice sector to protect public safety, such as the Guns, Gangs and Violence Reduction Strategy, air support equipment, initiatives to fight auto theft, and the expansion of the Basic Constable Training Program, including the elimination of its tuition fees; and
    • Compensation costs in 2024–25, including costs resulting from collective agreement outcomes.
  • Other Programs expense is projected to increase from $43.6 billion in 2024–25 to $45.0 billion in 2026–27. Examples of changes over this period include:
    • Funding to support the government’s multi-year commitment to provide access to high-speed internet for every community across Ontario by the end of 2025;  
    • A proposed one-time taxpayer rebate to each eligible adult Ontario tax filer and each eligible child under the age of 18; and
    • Investments to support housing-enabling infrastructure through the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund and Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program. This funding complements investments under the Building Faster Fund.

The total expense outlook includes Interest on Debt expense, which is projected to be $12.7 billion in 2024–25, $14.0 billion in 2025–26 and $14.5 billion in 2026–27.

Prudence Built Into the Medium-Term Outlook

In keeping with sound fiscal practices and the government’s commitment to balancing the budget, Ontario’s revenue outlook is based on prudent economic planning projections, as discussed in Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook.

The government maintains a responsible and flexible fiscal plan to respond to uncertainty and risks. Ontario incorporates prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the province’s revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontario’s economic performance.

The reserve has been set at $1.0 billion in 2024–25, $1.5 billion in 2025–26 and $2.0 billion 2026–27, unchanged from the levels in the 2024 Budget. In addition, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks — for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised, and which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance.

The government will work to preserve the fiscal flexibility necessary to respond to unforeseen events and support a long-term plan that will enhance transparency and accountability, invest in the future of Ontario, and help protect the province against potential economic challenges.

Leadership in the Federation and Standing Up for the People of Ontario

The federation works best when all orders of government work together. Ontario calls on the federal government to eliminate the federal carbon tax, which has increased inflation and made life less affordable for the people of Ontario. With Premier Ford as Chair of the Council of the Federation, the Ontario government continues to work closely with the federal government and other provinces and territories to promote economic growth and prosperity across the federation. Provinces and territories are facing pressures on services and infrastructure due to record population growth and immigration levels. In addition, geopolitical and global economic uncertainty require increased collaboration to protect Canada’s national economic and security interests. Ontario has an opportunity to drive the agenda and ensure that the province’s priorities are reflected.

Effective federal–provincial transfers are key to ensuring sustainable public services. Further collaboration with the federal government is needed to support critical infrastructure. With the end of the first Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program more than 18 months ago, Ontario joins all provinces and territories to continue to call for a new, long-term, predictable infrastructure program with sufficient funds to support the unique needs of each jurisdiction, without complex and onerous conditions. In addition, the provincial government calls on the federal government to accelerate funding commitments for them, including the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, to allow investments in shared infrastructure priorities that are driven by historic population growth.

These pressures on infrastructure apply equally to other provincial programs and services. Addressing recent reductions in labour market funding through the Labour Market Transfer Agreements, ensuring long-term funding levels to support Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreements, and adequate support for asylum seekers are areas where the federal government can take immediate action. The long‐term pressures facing health systems continue to be a significant challenge for all provinces and territories. Ontario looks forward to upcoming health agreement reviews to ensure sustainable federal support for health care in the years to come.

The government is working to create a stronger economy by driving economic growth, boosting productivity and making Ontario a prime destination for businesses to invest and grow. Working with the federal government, the provincial government secured major investments across Ontario’s electric vehicle (EV) supply chain and is helping to encourage the construction of new purpose‐built rental housing in Ontario by removing the HST on qualifying projects. Ontario requests that the federal government continue to work with the province to ensure an attractive investment climate. This includes developing Ontario’s energy and electrification infrastructure for domestic consumption and for export.

As Ontario continues to secure its position as a global leader of responsibly sourced critical minerals, it is important that the federal government match Ontario’s funding commitments and collaborate on regulatory efficiencies that would enable the development of the Ring of Fire and generate considerable economic benefit to Indigenous and Northern communities.

Canada shares a unique economic relationship with the United States, as its closest trading partner and the largest economy in the world. The prosperity and security of Canadians and Americans are integrated and mutually beneficial. There is no partner better positioned than Ontario to support their friends and allies south of the border. With its abundant supply of critical minerals and as a global leader in the future of nuclear energy, Ontario is uniquely positioned to support the United States’ economic growth and its national security objectives. This is why Ontario continues to call on the federal government to pause the implementation of the Digital Services Tax. Unilaterally implementing this tax is expected to have a negative impact on a mutually beneficial trading relationship. These are risks that Ontario families, businesses and workers cannot afford.

Transparency and Risks

The government is committed to being open and transparent about the state of Ontario’s finances. This principle is reflected in the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019, which stipulates that Ontario’s fiscal policy should be clearly articulated and information about it should be readily available to the public without charge.

While mid-year updates to the government’s finances are informed by the latest information available, key information still to be received over the remainder of the fiscal year may present further upside and downside risks, which could materially affect the fiscal outlook. Revenue could be affected by new information from the Canada Revenue Agency on tax return processing for previous taxation years, changes in the economic outlook and the evolution of private-sector economic forecasts, which the province uses to develop its own revenue projections. Expenses could be impacted by changes in utilization of large demand-driven programs.

To ensure a reasonable and prudent economic forecast, the government’s key economic planning projections are set below the average of private‐sector forecasts in each year. For 2024 onwards, the planning assumptions are set 0.1 percentage points below the private‐sector average to reflect the elevated degree of uncertainty over the outlook.

While the planning assumptions for economic growth are reasonable and prudent, the Ontario Ministry of Finance has also developed Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios to provide greater transparency around Ontario’s economic and fiscal outlook amid heightened economic uncertainty.

The current taxation revenue outlook includes the projected impact of the federal Budget 2024 announcement to increase the inclusion rate on capital gains realized annually above $250,000 by individuals and on all capital gains realized by corporations and trusts from one-half to two-thirds, effective June 25, 2024.

As a matter of transparent fiscal management, financial pressures are monitored throughout the fiscal year by the Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat, with the goal of ensuring that robust and prudent methodologies are used to develop forecasts. Other important risk management tools include closely tracking the pace of implementation of initiatives and proactively identifying emerging program and policy risks. Comprehensive analysis of known pressures informs the fiscal planning processes, including the development of plans to mitigate and manage fiscal pressures, as well as maintaining adequate contingencies as part of the medium-term fiscal projections in respect of the government’s flexible fiscal plan to respond to uncertainty and risks.

In addition to the key demand sensitivities and economic risks to the fiscal plan, there are risks stemming from the government’s contingent liabilities. Whether future events will result in actual liabilities for the province is beyond the direct control of the government. For example, losses could result from legal settlements or a call on loan or funding guarantees. While a Contingency Fund is included in the fiscal plan to help mitigate the expense risks, until there exists certainty around the likelihood and costs of these future events, these risks are not included in the province’s fiscal plan. Provisions for losses that are likely to occur and can be reasonably estimated are expensed and reported as liabilities in Ontario’s financial statements. Any significant contingent liabilities related to the 2023–24 fiscal year have been disclosed as part of the Public Accounts of Ontario 2023–2024, released in September.

Agency Oversight

Provincial agencies play a crucial role in delivering essential public services to individuals, families and businesses throughout Ontario. In the 2024 Budget, the government committed to implementing new measures and reporting requirements to enhance agency oversight. For instance, this fall, the government mandated agencies to report on human resource data and align their business plans with government priorities. These changes will ensure that provincial agencies continue to serve the best interests of the people of Ontario while providing value for taxpayers’ money.

Summary of Significant Accounting Policies

To fully comply with Public Sector Accounting Standards, interest and investment income will no longer be subtracted from interest on debt and will be reported separately as a revenue by the 2025 Budget. The impact of this change is fiscally and economically neutral and represents an accounting reporting and presentation change.

Details of Ontario’s Finances

Table 3.8
Total Revenue
($ Millions)
  Actual
2021–22
Actual
2022–23
Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Taxation Revenue — Personal Income Tax 46,750 44,209 50,773 54,765
Taxation Revenue — Sales Taxes 30,357 36,092 39,864 39,963
Taxation Revenue — Corporations Tax 25,227 27,791 23,140 27,878
Taxation Revenue — Education Property Tax 5,713 5,991 5,810 5,796
Taxation Revenue — Employer Health Tax 7,223 7,797 8,581 9,033
Taxation Revenue — Ontario Health Premium 4,414 4,445 5,008 5,135
Taxation Revenue — Gasoline Tax 2,202 2,103 1,620 1,695
Taxation Revenue — Land Transfer Tax 5,827 4,443 3,538 3,620
Taxation Revenue — Tobacco Tax 927 864 813 758
Taxation Revenue — Fuel Tax 771 571 517 571
Taxation Revenue — Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes 624 600 593 571
Taxation Revenue — Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes 666 674 529 594
Taxation Revenue — Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty 215 310 346 366
Taxation Revenue — Other Taxes 759 627 728 916
Taxation Revenue — Total 131,675 136,518 141,860 151,659
Government of Canada — Canada Health Transfer 16,731 17,525 19,286 20,301
Government of Canada — Canada Social Transfer 6,003 6,178 6,407 6,591
Government of Canada — Equalization 421 576
Government of Canada — Infrastructure Programs 562 769 609 1,185
Government of Canada — Labour Market Programs 1,476 1,181 1,149 904
Government of Canada — Social Housing Agreement 305 263 218 174
Government of Canada — Other Federal Payments 5,091 4,817 5,621 6,098
Government of Canada — Direct Transfers to Broader Public Sector Organizations 439 531 625 482
Government of Canada — Total 30,607 31,264 34,336 36,311
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Liquor Control Board of Ontario 2,543 2,457 2,574 2,165
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd. 2,151 850 2,065 1,670
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,561 2,505 2,368 2,437
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Cannabis Store 186 234 244 225
Income from Government Business Enterprises — iGaming Ontario 87 176 197
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Total 6,441 6,133 7,427 6,694
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Broader Public Sector Organizations 9,688 11,495 13,071 10,239
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees1 33 1,240 1,222 1,181
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue 2,628 2,146 3,344 2,000
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Other Fees and Licences 1,237 1,446 1,618 1,657
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Sales and Rentals 1,046 1,231 1,566 1,546
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Reimbursements 1,233 1,031 1,131 1,002
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Royalties 468 335 320 295
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Power Supply Contract Recoveries 67 48 41 46
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contracts 5
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Total 16,405 18,972 22,313 17,968
Total Revenue 185,128 192,887 205,936 212,632

Table 3.8 footnotes:

[1] Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees in 2021–22 reflect the elimination and rebate of eligible licence plate renewal fees paid since March 1, 2020.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Table 3.9
Total Expense1,2
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense Actual
2021–22
Actual
2022–23
Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Base) 284 302 337 398.9
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs — Demand-Driven Risk Management and Time-Limited Programs 358 502 601 477.5
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding3 32 30
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Total) 674 834 938 876.4
Attorney General (Base)4 1,615 1,806 2,084 2,043.9
Attorney General — Statutory Appropriations — Crown Liability and Proceedings Act, 2019 49 79 27
Attorney General — Bad Debt Expense 7 30 22 5.3
Attorney General — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding5 145 31
Attorney General (Total) 1,816 1,946 2,132 2,049.2
Board of Internal Economy (Base) 283 392 299 320.4
Board of Internal Economy — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding6 2 0
Board of Internal Economy (Total) 284 392 299 320.4
Children, Community and Social Services (Base) 16,717 18,003 19,412 19,976.3
Children, Community and Social Services — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding7 293 48
Children, Community and Social Services (Total) 17,010 18,051 19,412 19,976.3
Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Base) 33 54 68 72.6
Citizenship and Multiculturalism — Time-Limited Investments 14
Citizenship and Multiculturalism — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding8 3 2
Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Total) 36 56 82 72.6
Colleges and Universities (Base) 9,542 10,716 11,918 10,822.9
Colleges and Universities — Student Financial Assistance 954 1,019 1,316 1,370.3
Colleges and Universities — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding9 117 32
Colleges and Universities (Total) 10,614 11,766 13,235 12,193.1
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Base) 164 168 208 197.7
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — Tax Credits for Business Investment and Research and Development10 258 299 537 550.9
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — Tax Credits for Business Investment and Research and Development — Amounts Related to Prior Years 46 22 18
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — Time-Limited Investments 157 540 513 1,938.6
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding11 360 46
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total) 985 1,075 1,276 2,687.2
Education (Base)12 28,893 33,627 37,158 37,621.3
Education — Teachers’ Pension Plan 1,610 1,661 1,652 1,700.0
Education — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding13 1,060 918
Education (Total) 31,563 36,206 38,811 39,321.3
Energy (Base) 240 255 318 318.7
Energy — Electricity Cost-Relief Programs 6,313 5,844 5,996 7,336.1
Energy — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding14 274 2
Energy (Total) 6,827 6,101 6,315 7,654.8
Environment, Conservation and Parks (Base) 687 732 815 891.2
Environment, Conservation and Parks — One-Time Accounting Adjustment for Contaminated Sites 84
Environment, Conservation and Parks — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding15 16 17
Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total) 703 749 899 891.2
Executive Offices (Base) 49 56 66 70.9
Executive Offices — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding16 2 0
Executive Offices (Total) 51 56 66 70.9
Finance (Base) 759 802 904 1,128.7
Finance — Investment Management Corporation of Ontario17 210 245 300 312.7
Finance — Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 502 501 501 513.9
Finance — Temporary and Other Local Assistance 21 21 68 29.0
Finance — Power Supply Contract Costs 67 48 41 46.2
Finance — Time-Limited Investments 174 89 3,000.0
Finance — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding18 231 0
Finance (Total) 1,789 1,791 1,904 5,030.4
Francophone Affairs (Base) 7 7 8 8.7
Francophone Affairs — Time-Limited Investments 4.7
Francophone Affairs — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding19 2 1
Francophone Affairs (Total) 9 8 8 13.4
Health (Base) 20, 21 64,285 67,524 76,369 76,644.4
Health — Adjustment for Extraordinary Costs22 1,324 1,241
Health (Total) 64,285 68,848 77,610 76,644.4
COVID-19 Health Response23 6,167 3,331
Indigenous Affairs (Base) 85 111 128 138.5
Indigenous Affairs — One-Time Investments Including Settlements 152 6,273 17
Indigenous Affairs — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding24 4 1
Indigenous Affairs (Total) 241 6,384 145 138.5
Infrastructure (Base) 192 171 440 861.7
Infrastructure — Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 267 303 401 414.5
Infrastructure — High-Speed Internet 75 328 119 1,376.9
Infrastructure — Waterfront Toronto Revitalization (Port Lands Flood Protection) 156 25 25 30.2
Infrastructure — Municipal Infrastructure Program Investments 399 396 389 752.1
Infrastructure — Realty 1,174 1,195 1,298 1,340.8
Infrastructure — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding25 10
Infrastructure (Total) 2,272 2,418 2,672 4,776.3
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Base) 102 207 253 274.5
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — Training Tax Credits (Co-operative Education and Apprenticeship Training)26 105 86 116 113.9
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — Demand-Driven Employment and Training Programs 1,016 1,269 1,281 1,268.3
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — Time-Limited Investments 13
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding27 794 310
Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Total) 2,017 1,872 1,663 1,656.7
Long-Term Care (Total)28 5,301 6,306 7,848 9,333.3
Mines (Base) 135 147 180 211.6
Mines — One-Time Accounting Adjustment for Contaminated Sites 183 86 369
Mines (Total) 318 233 549 211.6
Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base) 486 565 786 789.2
Municipal Affairs and Housing — Time-Limited Investments 351 404 789 1,019.4
Municipal Affairs and Housing — Social Housing Agreement — Payments to Service Managers29 281 206 194 168.8
Municipal Affairs and Housing — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding30 330 390
Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total) 1,447 1,564 1,770 1,977.4
Natural Resources and Forestry (Base)31 605 620 701 716.3
Natural Resources and Forestry — Emergency Forest Firefighting 237 95 203 135.0
Natural Resources and Forestry — One-Time Accounting Adjustment for Contaminated Sites 210
Natural Resources and Forestry — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding32 12 2
Natural Resources and Forestry (Total) 855 717 1,114 851.2
Northern Development (Base) 605 661 705 763.6
Northern Development — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding33 41
Northern Development (Total) 646 661 705 763.6
Public and Business Service Delivery (Base) 613 973 860 774.7
Public and Business Service Delivery — Adjustment for Extraordinary Costs34 150 176
Public and Business Service Delivery — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding35 141 52
Public and Business Service Delivery (Total) 754 1,174 1,035 774.7
Seniors and Accessibility (Base) 53 63 63 69.0
Seniors and Accessibility — Seniors Tax Credits (Home Safety and Care at Home) 30 164 108 119.4
Seniors and Accessibility — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding36 43 11
Seniors and Accessibility (Total) 127 238 171 188.3
Solicitor General (Base)37 2,981 3,399 3,905 4,136.3
Solicitor General — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding38 150 96
Solicitor General (Total) 3,131 3,496 3,905 4,136.3
Tourism, Culture and Sport (Base) 833 830 867 875.3
Tourism, Culture and Sport — Time-Limited Investments 50.0
Tourism, Culture and Sport — Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits 693 833 841 1,034.4
Tourism, Culture and Sport — Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits — Amounts Related to Prior Years 84 51 89
Tourism, Culture and Sport — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding39 257 200
Tourism, Culture and Sport (Total) 1,868 1,914 1,797 1,959.7
Transportation (Base)40 4,854 5,553 6,339 6,408.7
Transportation — Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 557 477 418 708.4
Transportation — Time-Limited Investments 675
Transportation — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding41 369 609
Transportation (Total) 5,780 6,639 7,432 7,117.0
Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) 315 360 432 961.9
Treasury Board Secretariat — Employee and Pensioner Benefits 2,633 1,178 985 1,223.5
Treasury Board Secretariat — Operating Contingency Fund 1,575.3
Treasury Board Secretariat — Capital Contingency Fund 100.0
Treasury Board Secretariat — COVID-19 Time-Limited Funding42 2 0
Treasury Board Secretariat (Total) 2,950 1,538 1,417 3,860.7
Interest on Debt43 12,583 12,391 11,376 12,722.0
Total Expense 183,103 198,755 206,583 218,269.1

Table 3.9 footnotes:

[1] The ministry structures have been retained from the 2024 Budget. The new government structure, reflecting the announcement of the Executive Council on June 11, 2024, will be reflected in the 2025 Budget.

[2] Ministry expenses have been restated for reclassification and program transfer changes. These changes are fiscally neutral. The actual results are presented on a similar basis for consistency.

[3], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [11], [13], [14], [15], [16], [18], [19], [24], [25], [27], [30], [32], [33], [35], [36], [38], [39], [41], [42] COVID‐19 Time‐Limited Funding is no longer being reported separately, starting in 2023–24.

[4], [12], [20], [31], [37], [40] Compensation settlements reported in the 2024 Budget are now included in base spending.

[10] Includes the estimated cost of tax credit claims for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit, the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC), the Ontario Innovation Tax Credit and the Ontario Business-Research Institute Tax Credit. The OMMITC was introduced in the 2023 Budget with costs commencing in 2023–24. 

[17] Based on the requirements of Public Sector Accounting Standards, the province consolidates the financial results of the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario. 

[21] Includes accounting adjustments tied primarily to grants provided for infrastructure projects and other related investments.

[22], [34] Includes extraordinary costs related to personal protective equipment in 2022–23 and 2023–24.

[23] For presentation purposes in the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, Time-Limited COVID-19-related health response spending has been included separately for 2021–22 to 2022–23, instead of within the Ontario Ministry of Health and Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care.

[26] The Co-operative Education Tax Credit remains in effect. The Apprenticeship Training Tax Credit is eliminated for eligible apprenticeship programs that commenced on or after November 15, 2017. Amounts from 2021–22 to 2023–24 include tax credit amounts related to prior years; however, a decrease in costs of $18 million for the Apprenticeship Training Tax Credit in 2022–23 was reported separately as revenue. 

[28] The Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care total includes expenses incurred by Ontario Health for funding for long-term care. These amounts will be consolidated in the total expense of the Ontario Ministry of Health, including $5.3 billion for 2023–24 actuals and $5.2 billion in 2024–25.

[29] The annual decline is mainly due to declining federal obligations, such as maturing mortgages, under the Social Housing Agreement.

[43] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $321 million in 2021–22, $694 million in 2022–23, $573 million in 2023–24, and $865 million in 2024–25.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Chart 3.3: Composition of Revenue, 2024-25
Accessible description of Chart 3.3
Chart 3.4: Composition of Expense, 2024-25
Accessible description of Chart 3.4
Table 3.10
Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
Sector Total
Infrastructure Expenditures
2023–24 Actual1
2024–25 Current Outlook
Investment
in Capital Assets2,3
2024–25 Current Outlook
Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures4
2024–25 Current Outlook
Total
Infrastructure Expenditures
Transportation — Transit 8,184 9,535 1,160 10,695
Transportation — Provincial Highways 3,026 3,656 222 3,879
Transportation — Other Transportation, Property and Planning 300 137 81 219
Health — Hospitals 3,522 3,545 37 3,582
Health — Other Health 583 47 255 303
Education 3,288 3,127 223 3,350
Postsecondary Education — Colleges and Other 892 792 87 879
Postsecondary Education — Universities 155 130 130
Social 447 26 877 903
Justice 409 860 48 908
Other Sectors5 2,788 1,089 3,299 4,388
Total Infrastructure Expenditures 23,594 22,815 6,420 29,235
Less: Other Partner Funding6 3,299 2,972 2,972
Total7 20,295 19,844 6,420 26,264

Table 3.10 footnotes:

[1] Includes adjustments for the net book value of assets disposed during the year, as well as changes in valuation.

[2] Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $17.7 billion.

[3] Includes $865 million in interest capitalized during construction. 

[4] Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

[5] Includes high-speed internet infrastructure, government administration, natural resources, and the culture and tourism industries.

[6] Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.

[7] Includes federal–municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.

Table 3.11
10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1
($ Millions)
  2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 Actual
2023–24
Current Outlook
2024–25
Revenue 136,148 140,734 150,696 153,804 156,167 164,970 185,128 192,887 205,936 212,632
Expense — Programs 129,905 131,442 142,464 148,747 152,265 168,964 170,520 186,364 195,207 205,547
Expense — Interest on Debt2 11,589 11,727 11,912 12,385 12,497 12,296 12,583 12,391 11,376 12,722
Total Expense 141,494 143,169 154,375 161,132 164,762 181,260 183,103 198,755 206,583 218,269
Reserve 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) (5,346) (2,435) (3,679) (7,328) (8,595) (16,290) 2,025 (5,868) (647) (6,637)
Net Debt 306,357 314,077 323,068 337,623 352,382 372,501 382,842 399,806 407,969 429,012
Accumulated Deficit 203,014 205,939 208,257 215,770 224,814 238,231 238,160 246,007 244,309 250,946
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 760,435 790,749 824,979 860,103 893,224 874,354 960,226 1,048,258 1,093,466 1,135,017
Primary Household Income 512,570 520,486 541,501 567,484 593,065 592,514 642,859 695,228 741,401 786,745
Population (000s) — July3 13,709 13,877 14,078 14,327 14,574 14,762 14,842 15,141 15,623 16,124
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 22,347 22,634 22,948 23,566 24,180 25,234 25,794 26,405 26,113 26,607
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 37,389 37,508 38,463 39,610 40,695 40,138 43,312 45,916 47,455 48,793
Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 225.0% 223.2% 214.4% 219.5% 225.6% 225.8% 206.8% 207.3% 198.1% 201.8%
Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 8.5% 8.3% 7.9% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.4% 5.5% 6.0%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 40.3% 39.7% 39.2% 39.3% 39.5% 42.6% 39.9% 38.1% 37.3% 37.8%
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 26.7% 26.0% 25.2% 25.1% 25.2% 27.2% 24.8% 23.5% 22.3% 22.1%

Table 3.11 footnotes:

[1] Amounts reflect a change in pension expense that was calculated based on recommendations of the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry, as described in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in Public Accounts of Ontario 2017–2018. Amounts for net debt and accumulated deficit also reflect this change.

[2] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $321 million in 2021–22, $694 million in 2022–23, $573 million in 2023–24, and $865 million in 2024–25.

[3] Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2024–25, the population on July 1, 2024, is shown).

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Statistics Canada; Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat; and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

 

Chart Descriptions

Chart 3.1: Current Surplus/(Deficit) Outlook Compared to the 2024 Budget

The bar chart illustrates the surplus/deficit outlook presented in the 2024 Budget compared to the current outlook in the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. The 2024 Budget projected deficits of $9.8 billion in 2024–25 and $4.6 billion in 2025–26, before projecting a surplus of $0.5 billion in 2026–27. With the release of the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the surplus/deficit projections have been revised to deficits of $6.6 billion in 2024–25 and $1.5 billion in 2025–26, and a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 3.1

Chart 3.2: Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios

The bar chart illustrates the range of Ontario fiscal outlooks based on the two alternative economic scenarios presented in Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook. The 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review fiscal outlook estimates deficits of $6.6 billion in 2024–25 and $1.5 billion in 2025–26, before reaching a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27. Under the Faster Growth scenario, the deficit is estimated to be $4.2 billion in 2024–25, followed by surpluses of $6.2 billion in 2025–26 and $11.4 billion in 2026–27. Under the Slower Growth scenario, the deficits are estimated to be $8.8 billion in 2024–25, $8.4 billion in 2025–26 and $8.3 billion in 2026–27.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 3.2

Chart 3.3: Composition of Revenue, 2024–25

The pie chart shows the composition of Ontario’s revenue in 2024–25, which is projected to be $212.6 billion. The largest taxation revenue source is Personal Income Tax revenue at $54.8 billion, accounting for 25.8 per cent of total revenue. This is followed by Sales Tax at $40.0 billion, or 18.8 per cent of total revenue; and Corporations Tax at $27.9 billion, or 13.1 per cent of total revenue. Other components of taxation revenue include Education Property Tax at $5.8 billion, or 2.7 per cent of total revenue; Employer Health Tax at $9.0 billion, or 4.2 per cent; Gasoline Tax and Fuel Tax at $2.3 billion, or 1.1 per cent; the Ontario Health Premium at $5.1 billion, or 2.4 per cent; and Other Taxes at $6.8 billion, or 3.2 per cent of total revenue.

Total taxation revenue accounts for $151.7 billion, or 71.3 per cent of total revenue.

The other major non-taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers at $36.3 billion, or
17.1 per cent of total revenue; Income from Government Business Enterprises at $6.7 billion, or
3.1 per cent of total revenue; and various Other Non-Tax Revenue at $18.0 billion, or 8.5 per cent of total revenue.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 3.3

Chart 3.4: Composition of Expense, 2024–25

The pie chart shows the share of Ontario’s total expense and dollar amounts by sector in 2024–25.

Total expense in 2024–25 is projected to be $218.3 billion.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $86.0 billion, accounting for 39.4 per cent of total expense.

The remaining sectors of total expense include the Education Sector1 at $37.6 billion or 17.2 per cent; the Postsecondary Education Sector at $12.2 billion or 5.6 per cent; the Children, Community and Social Services Sector at $20.0 billion or 9.2 per cent; the Justice Sector at $6.2 billion or 2.8 per cent; and Other Programs at $43.6 billion or 20.0 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of total expense, is $12.7 billion or 5.8 per cent.

1 Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 3.4

Footnotes

[1] The current taxation revenue outlook includes the impact of the federal Budget 2024 announcement to increase the inclusion rate on capital gains realized annually above $250,000 by individuals and on all capital gains realized by corporations and trusts from one-half to two-thirds, effective June 25, 2024. The projected impacts of federal changes to the inclusion rate are expected to total $3.3 billion over the 2024–25 to 2026–27 period.

Updated: October 30, 2024
Published: October 30, 2024