Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

Introduction

Ontario’s economy has been resilient, but it is also being negatively impacted by U.S. trade policy and accompanying uncertainty. Following a strong start to the year, Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) declined in the second quarter of 2025 alongside the implementation of U.S. tariffs.

Ontario’s real GDP growth is projected to decelerate from 1.4 per cent in 2024 to 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026, in line with the projections at the time of the 2025 Ontario Budget. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in subsequent years with projected increases of 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028. For the purposes of prudent fiscal planning, these projections are set slightly below the average of private‐sector forecasts.

Revisions to the Outlook Since the 2025 Budget

The outlook has been revised compared to the projections in the 2025 Ontario Budget. Key changes since the 2025 Ontario Budget include the following:

• Slightly stronger nominal GDP growth in 2025 due to an upward revision to projections for corporate profits;
• Slightly lower real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027; and
• Weaker housing resale market activity through the projection period.

Recent Economic Performance

Ontario’s real GDP declined by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, following nine consecutive quarters of growth. The second quarter decline was driven by significantly lower exports, while business investment also declined. In contrast, in the first quarter of 2025, real GDP rose 0.6 per cent, which was due, in part, to pull-forward activity ahead of U.S. tariff implementation.

Despite the decline in headline GDP, Ontario’s real final domestic demand was resilient in the second quarter of 2025, rising by 0.5 per cent. Final domestic demand is an indicator of domestic economic activity, representing total final consumption expenditures and investment in fixed capital, while excluding trade. Final domestic demand in the second quarter was supported, in part, by higher household consumption.

Ontario Labour Market

Employment in Ontario grew strongly between 2022 and 2024 and continued to grow into the first quarter of 2025, advancing by nearly 60,000. The employment gain in the first quarter was partially offset by a decline of 38,000 in the second quarter. Industries particularly impacted by the implementation of U.S. tariffs, such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing, contributed to the second quarter employment decline. Overall, employment was essentially unchanged in the third quarter.

Unemployment has continued to rise across Canada in recent months. In Ontario, the unemployment rate averaged 7.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. Youth (aged 15 to 24) have been particularly affected. Since the beginning of 2024, Canada’s youth labour force has increased significantly, especially in Ontario, driven by strong underlying population growth. Between 2024Q1 and 2025Q3, Ontario’s youth employment rose by 3.4 per cent compared to 6.6 per cent labour force growth, while for the rest of Canada, youth employment edged down 0.1 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent labour force growth. The 3.4 per cent growth in youth employment in Ontario since early 2024 was among the strongest rates in any province.

Consumer Price Inflation

Ontario Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 1.7 per cent (year-over-year) in August 2025. Inflation has remained below 2 per cent since April 2025, when the federal consumer carbon tax was removed. Since April, lower energy prices have driven the headline CPI moderation. Inflation for food has outpaced overall CPI inflation in recent months, with food prices rising 3.6 per cent in August compared to a year ago.

Inflation excluding food and energy moderated to 2.2 per cent (year-over-year) in August 2025. Many CPI components have moderated so far this year, including shelter price inflation at 1.7 per cent in August, down from over 4 per cent at the beginning of the year.

Economic Outlook

The Ontario Ministry of Finance regularly consults with private-sector economists while tracking their forecasts to inform the government’s planning assumptions.

Private-sector forecasters, on average, are projecting that Ontario’s real GDP will grow by 0.9 per cent in 2025, 1.0 per cent in 2026, 1.9 per cent in 2027 and 2.0 per cent in 2028.The Ontario Ministry of Finance’s real GDP projections are set slightly below the average of private-sector forecasts in each year for prudent planning purposes.

Private-sector forecasters, on average, are projecting that Ontario’s nominal GDP will grow by 3.3 per cent in 2025, 3.1 per cent in 2026, 4.1 per cent in 2027 and 3.9 per cent in 2028. The Ontario Ministry of Finance’s nominal GDP projections are set slightly below the average of private‑sector forecasts in each year for prudent planning purposes.

The Ontario Ministry of Finance is projecting that Ontario nominal GDP will rise by 3.2 per cent in 2025 as real GDP growth slows and GDP inflation moderates from recent highs. Nominal GDP growth is projected to slow further to 3.0 per cent in 2026 as GDP inflation returns to its long-run rate of close to 2 per cent. Nominal GDP growth is expected to strengthen to 4.0 per cent in 2027 and 3.8 per cent in 2028, reflecting stronger real GDP growth.

Global Economic Environment

On April 2, 2025, the U.S. administration announced “reciprocal” tariffs on a large set of countries. Subsequently, on April 9, 2025, the administration announced that it was pausing these tariffs for 90 days on most affected countries. Over the following months, some jurisdictions such as the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom negotiated trade deals with the United States while China and Mexico received a reprieve from higher tariffs. The United States increased tariffs on some of its imports from Canada, India and Brazil.

Increased trade tensions and tariffs in 2025 have led to much greater economic uncertainty and contributed to a weaker global economic outlook. While trade tensions and global measures of economic policy uncertainty have declined since April 2025, both remain elevated.

In its July World Economic Outlook Update, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to decelerate due to the impact of trade-related distortions. The IMF projects global real GDP growth to decline from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. According to Blue Chip Economic Indicators released in September 2025, U.S. real GDP growth is projected to slow significantly from 2.8 per cent in 2024 to 1.7 per cent in 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2026. Compared to projections at the time of the 2025 Ontario Budget, U.S. real GDP growth is now projected to be higher by 0.3 percentage points in 2025 and 0.1 percentage points in 2026. The upward revision in 2025 mainly reflects stronger personal consumption expenditures and investment. The IMF projects that Euro area real GDP growth will increase slightly from 0.9 per cent in 2024 to 1.0 per cent in 2025 and 1.2 per cent in 2026. China’s real GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.0 per cent in 2024 to 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.

Most major central banks have been easing their monetary policy as price inflation has been on a moderating trend. However, these banks continue to face a difficult decision moving forward between lowering their policy interest rates to stimulate economic growth or undertake restrictive monetary policy in case inflationary pressures mount, resulting from retaliatory tariffs.

Financial Markets and Other External Factors

Following aggressive monetary tightening from 2022 to mid-2023, the Bank of Canada began policy easing in June 2024 that was supported by a gradual moderation in wage pressures and a slowing in underlying inflation. The Bank lowered its key policy interest rate between June 2024 and March 2025, bringing its policy rate from a peak of 5.00 per cent to 2.75 per cent. After leaving the policy rate unchanged in the following three announcements, the Bank lowered its rate by a quarter point to 2.50 per cent in September 2025. In its September announcement, the Bank noted the adverse effects of heightened trade uncertainty and U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy, as well as moderating inflation risk.

The Government of Canada three-month treasury bill rate was 4.3 per cent in 2024 and is projected to decline to 2.6 per cent in 2025 and to 2.2 per cent in 2026, before averaging 2.5 per cent in 2027 and 2028. The Government of Canada 10-year bond rate was 3.4 per cent in 2024 and is expected to decline to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and then increase modestly to 3.3 per cent in 2026, before rising slightly to 3.4 per cent in both 2027 and 2028.

Energy prices are expected to decline over the projection horizon. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price is projected to decline from US$77 per barrel in 2024 to US$66 per barrel in 2025 and US$63 per barrel in 2026 before increasing gradually to US$66 and US$69 per barrel in 2027 and 2028, respectively. The Canadian dollar is projected to modestly decline from 73.0 cents US in 2024 to 72.0 cents US in 2025, before appreciating gradually over the projection period to 76.2 cents US in 2028.

Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook

The Ontario Ministry of Finance projects real GDP to rise by 0.8 per cent in 2025, 0.9 per cent in 2026, 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028. Nominal GDP is projected to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2025, 3.0 per cent in 2026, 4.0 per cent in 2027 and 3.8 per cent in 2028.

Employment

Slowing economic activity and lower population growth due to changes in federal immigration policy are projected to contribute to a softening in Ontario labour market activity and easing employment growth.

Ontario employment increased by 140,000 or 1.7 per cent in 2024. Employment continued rising in the first quarter of 2025, increasing 0.7 per cent, but then declined by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter. Annual employment gains for 2025 are projected to be 70,000, or 0.9 per cent. Slow economic activity, as well as faster population growth relative to employment growth, is projected to contribute to a rise in the average unemployment rate in 2025 to 7.8 per cent, from 7.0 per cent in 2024.

Employment growth is projected to ease further in 2026 to 0.4 per cent as economic growth continues to be impacted by ongoing trade conflicts and the effect of the associated uncertainty on investment and hiring. Employment growth is projected to outpace population growth and rise to 0.8 per cent in 2027 and 1.0 per cent in 2028. Slowing population growth and rising economic growth is projected to result in a decrease in the unemployment rate to 7.6 per cent in 2026, 7.0 per cent in 2027 and 6.5 per cent in 2028.

Consumer Price Index

Ontario’s inflationary pressures have broadly receded in recent months with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation below the Bank of Canada’s 2.0 per cent target. The elimination of the federal carbon tax in April 2025 has continued to exert downward pressure on the annual inflation rate.

For planning purposes, the Ontario Ministry of Finance is projecting Ontario CPI inflation to ease from 2.4 per cent in 2024 to 1.9 per cent in 2025 and return to the Bank’s 2.0 per cent inflation rate target over the medium-term projection horizon. The inflation outlook remains uncertain. Tariff‑related cost pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions could impact inflation, particularly if higher costs are passed through to consumer prices. 

Housing Market

Ontario’s housing market activity has remained slow so far in 2025. Economic uncertainty related to the disruption of Canada–U.S. trade relations has continued to weigh on market sentiment. Home resales have increased since April but remain below historical levels. Despite upward momentum in recent months, the average home resale price remains significantly below its 2022 peak.

Ontario home resales are projected to decline 8.0 per cent in 2025 before rebounding by 10.2 per cent in 2026, followed by increases of 4.5 per cent in 2027 and 1.5 per cent in 2028. The average home resale price is projected to decline 3.3 per cent in 2025 before rebounding by 2.8 per cent in 2026, followed by increases of 2.8 per cent in 2027 and 4.0 per cent in 2028.

Construction activity, particularly in condominiums, has slowed from the recent peak in 2023. This was partially offset by a pickup in the construction of purpose-built rental units responding to policy incentives. Private-sector forecasters continue to highlight the negative effects of tariff-related uncertainty and material cost increases on homebuilding. Accordingly, Ontario housing starts are projected to slow from 74,600 units in 2024 to 64,300 units in 2025 before reaching 70,200 units in 2026, 79,600 in 2027 and 83,700 in 2028. 

Risks to the Outlook

Globally, increased trade uncertainty and rising tariffs are likely to dampen global output via renewed disruptions to international supply chains. This could contribute to a pickup in inflation, which, in turn, could lead to higher policy interest rates. Tighter global financial conditions could result in higher borrowing costs and weaken domestic demand.

U.S. trade policy represents the most significant risk to Ontario’s economic outlook. Ontario’s significant trading relationships with the United States — the destination for over 77 per cent of Ontario’s merchandise exports — expose the economy to shifts in U.S. trade policy and related uncertainty. In addition to the potential immediate and direct impact on trade flows caused by shifts in U.S. trade policy, elevated business uncertainty and the risk of further tariffs could dampen business investment. This could lead to reduced construction and weaker investment in productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment.

On the upside, rising demand for new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, could support renewed business expansion and contribute to increasing productivity growth. As well, efforts to reduce and eliminate interprovincial trade barriers, coupled with federal plans to expedite development in key infrastructure projects, could help boost economic growth over the medium term.

An escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Europe, could introduce new negative shocks to the global economy.

Alternative Economic Scenarios

Due to heightened uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, the Ministry of Finance has developed scenarios to assess the potential impact from tariffs on Ontario’s economy over the projection period. As significant risks remain regarding the outcome of U.S. trade policies, these alternative scenarios should not be considered the best case or the worst case. Rather, they illustrate a broader range of possible alternative outcomes.

The Faster Growth Scenario assumes that most tariffs and countermeasures imposed by the United States on Canada are removed. Uncertainty surrounding Canada–U.S. trade relations is alleviated, supporting renewed business investment and consumer spending. The Slower Growth Scenario assumes 25 per cent U.S. tariffs on all Canadian goods throughout the projection period, including on sectors that are currently Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)-exempt. These tariffs are not applied on top of tariffs in sectors already tariffed, such as steel, aluminum, and motor vehicles and parts sectors.

There is significant uncertainty around these scenarios. So far in 2025, Ontario’s exporters have shown resilience in the face of U.S. trade policy. This greater-than-expected resiliency may continue, mitigating some of the downside impact of U.S. trade policy. On the other hand, the global trade environment may worsen, and competitive challenges could intensify more than anticipated, adding to the headwinds already impacting Ontario’s economy.

Beyond the impact of U.S. trade policy, a range of other factors could support faster or slower economic growth. Stronger-than-expected population growth, alongside elevated household savings, could boost personal spending. Additionally, a more resilient U.S. economy coupled with a mutually favourable trade outcome between Canada and the United States could support stronger‑than-expected demand for Ontario goods and services. On the downside, inflation may remain elevated and lead to higher-than-expected interest rates, which could restrain spending and investment. As well, the greater degree of economic uncertainty could lead to more risk aversion on the part of households and businesses and restrain economic activity.

By 2028, the level of real GDP in the Faster Growth scenario is 2.2 per cent higher than in the Planning Projection, while in the Slower Growth scenario, the level of real GDP is 1.6 per cent lower. The nominal GDP scenarios show a wider range of outcomes over the next several years compared to the real GDP scenarios, due largely to near‐term uncertainty around GDP inflation. By 2028, the level of nominal GDP in the Faster Growth scenario is 3.7 per cent higher than in the Planning Projection, while in the Slower Growth scenario, the level of nominal GDP is 3.0 per cent lower.

Chart Descriptions

Chart 2.1: Lower Exports Contribute to Ontario Real GDP Decline in Q2

This bar chart illustrates the quarterly growth rate for Ontario real final domestic demand and real gross domestic product between the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025. Real final domestic demand growth is as follows: 0.9 per cent in 2024Q1; 0.5 per cent in 2024Q2; 0.5 per cent in 2024Q3; 1.5 per cent in 2024Q4; −0.1 per cent in 2025Q1 and 0.5 per cent in 2025Q2. Real gross domestic product growth is as follows: 0.3 per cent in 2024Q1; 0.4 per cent in 2024Q2; 0.4 per cent in 2024Q3; 0.6 per cent in 2024Q4; 0.6 per cent in 2025Q1 and −0.6 per cent in 2025Q2.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 2.2: Ontario Consumer Price Inflation Moderates

This line chart shows Ontario Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in year-over-year per cent for all items (shown as a solid blue line) and all items excluding food and energy (shown as a solid gray line) from January 2019 to August 2025.

In August 2025, Ontario CPI inflation for all items was 1.7 per cent year-over-year, while CPI inflation for all items excluding food and energy was 2.2 per cent, year-over-year.

Note: Latest data point is August 2025.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Chart 2.3: Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Projected to Moderate

The bar chart shows Ontario real and nominal GDP growth rates from 2024 to 2028. The difference between the nominal growth rate and real growth rate is the GDP inflation for each year.

Ontario nominal GDP growth was 5.3 per cent in 2024 and is projected to be 3.2 per cent in 2025, 3.0 per cent in 2026, 4.0 per cent in 2027 and 3.8 per cent in 2028.

Ontario real  GDP growth was 1.4 per cent in 2024 and is projected to be 0.8 per cent in 2025, 0.9 per cent in 2026, 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028.

Ontario GDP inflation was 3.9 per cent in 2024 and is projected to be 2.4 per cent in 2025, 2.1 per cent in 2026, 2.2 per cent in 2027 and 1.9 per cent in 2028.

Note: Projections for 2025 to 2028 are the Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of September 12, 2025.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 2.4: Global Real GDP Growth Projections

This bar chart shows actual and forecast real GDP growth in per cent for 2024, 2025 and 2026 for the world economy, the United States, the Euro area and China. Real GDP growth in 2024, 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 3.3 per cent, 3.0 per cent and 3.1 per cent for the world economy; 2.8 per cent, 1.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the United States; 0.9 per cent, 1.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent in the Euro area; and 5.0 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent in China.

Sources: International Monetary Fund (July 2025) and Blue Chip Economic Indicators (September 2025).

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Chart 2.5: Bank of Canada Key Policy Interest Rate and Ontario Inflation

This line chart shows the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate in per cent from January 2018 to September 2025 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation (Year-Over-Year) from January 2018 to August 2025. The overnight rate was raised from 1.25 per cent in January 2018 to 1.50 per cent in July 2018. Another increase occurred from 1.50 per cent to 1.75 per cent in October 2018. The rate remained stable until March 2020, when it was sharply reduced from 1.75 per cent to 0.25 per cent in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. After a prolonged period of stability at 0.25 per cent, the Bank implemented a rate hike in March 2022 to 0.50 per cent, then to 1.00 per cent in April 2022, 1.50 per cent in June 2022, and to 2.50 per cent in July 2022. The overnight rate continued to be revised upward to 3.25 per cent in September 2022, 3.75 per cent in October 2022, and 4.25 per cent in December 2022. The rate was increased to 4.50 per cent in January 2023, and then to 4.75 per cent in June 2023. The policy interest rate was raised to 5.0 per cent in July 2023 and held steady until May 2024. Subsequently, the Bank began easing monetary policy in June 2024. From June 2024 to March 2025, the Bank had reduced its key policy rate by a total of 225 basis points to 2.75 per cent. The overnight rate was held steady for three consecutive announcements from April 2025 to July 2025. The Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points in September 2025.

CPI inflation decreased significantly to 0.7 per cent in March 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation continued to decline, reaching its lowest level throughout the period of −0.4 per cent in May 2020. Following this trough, inflation reversed course and increased steadily, peaking at 7.9 per cent in June 2022. Since then, inflation has been on a downward trend, with inflation recorded at 1.7 per cent in August 2025. 

Sources: Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada.

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Chart 2.6: Unemployment Rate Projected to Decline

This chart shows Ontario’s annual employment gains and unemployment rate from 2019 to 2024 and projections for 2025 to 2028.

The bars show the annual change in Ontario’s employment. There was an increase in employment of 173,000 in 2019 and then a decline of 370,000 in 2020. Employment grew by around 360,000 in both 2021 and 2022 and then slowed to 242,000 in 2023 and 140,000 in 2024. Employment gains are forecast to be 70,000 in 2025, 35,000 in 2026, 66,000 in 2027 and 83,000 in 2028.

The line shows Ontario’s unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased from 5.5 per cent in 2019 to 9.8 per cent in 2020 and 8.1 per cent in 2021. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.6 per cent in 2022 and remained at 5.6 per cent in 2023, before rising to 7.0 per cent in 2024. The unemployment rate is forecast to be 7.8 per cent in 2025, 7.6 per cent in 2026, 7.0 per cent in 2027 and 6.5 per cent in 2028.

Note: Projections for 2025 to 2028 are the Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of September 12, 2025.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 2.7: Ontario Inflation Rate Settling Into Target Range

This line chart shows annual Ontario Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation from 2019 to 2024, as well as projected Ontario CPI inflation for 2025 through 2028. The Ontario Ministry of Finance’s planning projection is based on external sources as of September 12, 2025.

Ontario CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent in 2019, 0.7 per cent in 2020, 3.5 per cent in 2021, 6.8 per cent in 2022, 3.8 per cent in 2023 and 2.4 per cent in 2024.

Ontario CPI inflation is projected to be 1.9 per cent in 2025, rising slightly to 2.0 per cent in 2026 and is forecast to hold at that rate through 2028.

The shaded area on the chart shows the range of private-sector forecasts for Ontario CPI inflation for 2025 through 2028. Private-sector forecasts range from 1.8 per cent to 2.1 per cent in 2025. The range is 1.7 per cent to 2.2 per cent in 2026. The range narrows slightly in 2027 from 1.8 per cent to 2.1 per cent and from 1.8 per cent to 2.0 per cent in 2028.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Ontario Ministry of Finance Survey of Forecasters.

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Chart 2.8: Housing Market Projected to Rebound

The left bar chart shows Ontario’s annual home resale growth rates from 2019 to 2024 and projections for 2025 to 2028. Ontario home resales increased 9.3 per cent in 2019, 9.3 per cent in 2020 and 18.0 per cent in 2021, decreased 32.6 per cent in 2022 and 12.0 per cent in 2023 and increased 4.7 per cent in 2024. Ontario home resales are projected to decline by 8.0 per cent in 2025, before increasing 10.2 per cent in 2026, 4.5 per cent in 2027 and 1.5 per cent in 2028.

The right bar chart shows Ontario’s annual average home resale price growth rates from 2019 to 2024 and projections for 2025 to 2028. Ontario average home resale price increased 6.3 per cent in 2019, 16.2 per cent in 2020, 23.7 per cent in 2021 and 6.8 per cent in 2022 and decreased 6.4 per cent in 2023 and 0.9 per cent in 2024. The average home resale price is projected to decline by 3.3 per cent in 2025, before increasing 2.8 per cent in 2026, 2.8 per cent in 2027 and 4.0 per cent in 2028.

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Chart 2.9: Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts

The line chart on the left shows Ontario real GDP in 2024 and the Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection for real GDP from 2025 to 2028, in billions of 2017 dollars. Separate lines show the levels of real GDP in the Faster Growth and the Slower Growth scenarios for 2025 to 2028. Ontario real GDP was $946 billion in 2024. In the Planning Projection, Ontario real GDP is projected to rise from $954 billion in 2025 to $998 billion in 2028. In the Faster Growth scenario, Ontario real GDP is projected to rise from $959 billion in 2025 to $1,020 billion in 2028. In the Slower Growth scenario, Ontario real GDP is projected to be $951 billion in 2025 and $948 billion in 2026, before rising to $981 billion in 2028.

The line chart on the right shows Ontario nominal GDP in 2024 and the Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection for nominal GDP for 2025 to 2028, in billions of dollars. Separate lines show the levels of nominal GDP in the Faster Growth and the Slower Growth scenarios for 2025 to 2028. Ontario nominal GDP was $1,178 billion in 2024. In the Planning Projection, Ontario nominal GDP is projected to rise from $1,217 billion in 2025 to $1,351 billion in 2028. In the Faster Growth scenario, Ontario nominal GDP is projected to rise from $1,227 billion in 2025 to $1,402 billion in 2028. In the Slower Growth scenario, Ontario nominal GDP is projected to rise from $1,209 billion in 2025 to $1,311 billion in 2028.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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