Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook

Introduction

The 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review is reporting progress on the Province’s fiscal plan, with fiscal improvements in all years compared to the plan set out in the 2019 Budget. The government has been responsive by making changes since the 2019 Budget in a way that is prudent and ensures critical public services are supported on an ongoing basis, while maintaining its commitment to balance the budget by 2023–24.

The government is projecting a $1.3 billion improvement to the 2019–20 deficit, to $9.0 billion from $10.3 billion. Over the medium term, the government continues to project steadily declining deficits of $6.7 billion in 2020–21 and $5.4 billion in 2021–22.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 40.0 per cent in 2019–20, 0.7 percentage points lower than the 40.7 per cent forecast in the 2019 Budget. The government is projecting lower net debt-to-GDP ratios over the medium-term outlook relative to the 2019 Budget projections.

Table 3.1
Fiscal Summary
($ Billions)
  Actual
2018–19
Current Outlook
2019–20
Medium-Term Outlook
2020–21
Medium-Term Outlook
2021–22
Revenue 153.7 155.8 161.5 165.4
Expense — Programs 148.8 150.9 154.0 155.9
Expense — Interest on Debt 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.9
Total Expense 161.1 163.8 167.2 169.8
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (7.4) (8.0) (5.7) (4.4)
Reserve 1.0 1.0 1.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (7.4) (9.0) (6.7) (5.4)
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 39.6 40.0 40.1 39.8
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 25.3 25.4 25.2 24.9

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The following sections detail the actions taken by the government since the release of the 2019 Budget to deliver its fiscal plan.

Key 2019–20 Changes since the 2019 Budget

The government is projecting a $1.3 billion improvement to the 2019–20 deficit, to $9.0 billion from $10.3 billion.

The improvement includes an increase of $1.6 billion in revenue, which is primarily due to higher personal and corporate income tax revenue. At the same time, the government has continued to make life better for the people of Ontario by allocating an additional $1.3 billion to key priorities in 2019–20, which are partially offset by contingency fund draws for a net increase in program spending of $0.8 billion. Interest on debt expense is projected to decrease by $0.4 billion as a result of lower 2018–19 and 2019–20 deficits and lower-than-forecast interest rates. The reserve has been maintained at $1.0 billion.

Table 3.2
2019–20 In-Year Fiscal Performance
($ Billions)
  2019
Budget
Current
Outlook
In-Year
Change
Revenue 154.2 155.8 1.6
Expense — Programs 150.1 150.9 0.8
Expense — Interest on Debt 13.3 12.9 (0.4)
Total Expense 163.4 163.8 0.3
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (9.3) (8.0) 1.3
Reserve 1.0 1.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (10.3) (9.0) 1.3

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Revenue

The 2019–20 total revenue outlook is $155.8 billion, $1,596 million higher than the 2019 Budget forecast.

Table 3.3
2019–20 Revenue Changes
($ Millions)
  2019–20
2019 Budget Total Revenue 154,165
In-Year Revenue Changes — Corporations Tax 936
In-Year Revenue Changes — Personal Income Tax 525
In-Year Revenue Changes — Land Transfer Tax 90
In-Year Revenue Changes — All Other Taxes 54
Total Taxation Revenue 1,606
Other Non-Tax Revenue (9)
Total In-Year Revenue Changes 1,596
2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Revenue 155,761

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of 2019–20 Revenue Changes

Highlights of changes to the 2019–20 revenue forecast since the 2019 Budget are as follows:

  • Corporations Tax revenue is $936 million higher mainly due to increased revenues indicated by the processing of 2018 tax returns.
  • Personal Income Tax revenue is $525 million higher due to increased revenues indicated by processing 2018 and prior-year tax returns.
  • Land Transfer Tax revenue is $90 million higher, reflecting a strengthening in provincial housing resales.
  • All Other Taxes combined increased by $54 million based largely on higher than anticipated revenue collections since the 2019 Budget.
  • Other Non-Tax Revenues are $9 million lower, mainly reflecting relief from previously scheduled fee increases including: freezing key driver, vehicle and commercial fees until July 1, 2020; the impact of an extension of the fee waiver for a change-of-sex designation on birth registrations; and the elimination of the Driver’s Licence Check service fee for a single driver’s licence check order.

Expense

The 2019–20 total expense outlook is $163.8 billion, $341 million higher than the 2019 Budget forecast and includes $1.3 billion in new allocated spending towards health care, education, child care, and social services for the province’s most vulnerable people. These investments are being partially funded by drawing on already budgeted contingency funds, resulting in a $0.8 billion net increase in program expense.

Table 3.4                       
2019–20 Expense Changes
($ Millions)
  2019–20
2019 Budget Total Expense 163,444
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Health Sector1 404
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Education Sector 186
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Postsecondary Education and Training Sector2 0
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Children’s and Social Services Sector 637
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Justice Sector
Changes since the 2019 Budget — Other Programs Excluding Contingency Funds3 94
Total New Allocated Spending 1,322
Contingency Funds (551)
Net Program Expense Changes since the 2019 Budget 771
Interest on Debt Change (430)
Total Expense Changes since the 2019 Budget 341
2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Expense 163,785

Table 3.4 footnotes:

[1], [2], [3] Sectors are reported based on the 2019 Budget ministry structure. Impacts on sectors resulting from changes to ministry structures made since the 2019 Budget will be reflected in future updates.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Sector changes shown in the table exclude fiscally neutral accounting presentation adjustments.

Details of 2019–20 Expense Changes

The following key program expense changes have occurred since the 2019 Budget:

Health Sector expense has increased by $404 million in 2019–20 mainly due to:

  • Additional funding of $227 million for items such as increased utilization of physician and other services under the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) and providing relief to long-term care residents by removing the prescription co-payment requirement completely;
  • Additional funding of $68 million for hospitals to help end hallway health care by addressing capacity issues, wait times and access to life saving programs. The investment will also reduce the need for patients to travel across the province, the country and south of the border to receive care;
  • An investment of $41 million to support Public Health Units as the ministry considers options to modernize public health, completes engagement with stakeholders and finalizes implementation approaches; and
  • Additional funding of $26 million to support municipal land ambulance operations.

Education Sector expense has increased by $186 million in 2019–20 mainly due to:

  • An increase of $122 million to help municipal partners provide child care programs; and
  • An increase of $64 million to support elementary and secondary education programs.

Children’s and Social Services Sector expense has increased by $637 million in 2019–20 mainly due to:

  • An investment in social services of $310 million to support social assistance, developmental services, child welfare and other programs to help vulnerable populations while transformation is underway. This includes continuing to deliver the Transition Child Benefit and not proceeding with planned changes to Ontario Works and Ontario Disability Support Program earnings exemptions;
  • An additional investment of $279 million in the Province’s autism program to continue to support children and youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including issuing childhood budgets, and bringing children off the waitlist while working towards implementing a needs-based and sustainable autism program, and providing continuity of service to families with existing behaviour plans;
  • An investment of $43 million in youth justice services while the government continues to work on modernization approaches; and
  • An investment of $6 million to support the language training program for newcomers to help them gain the language skills they need to successfully work and live in Ontario.

Other Programs Sector expense excluding contingency funds has increased by $94 million in 2019–20 mainly due to:

  • Funding of $60 million to fight forest fires across the province keeping people and property safe while protecting the province’s forests;
  • Additional funding of $14 million for maintenance work to keep Ontario’s highways safe and reliable;
  • Funding of $12 million for the Ontario Wine Fund, the Small Cidery and Small Distillery Support Program and the Vineyard Improvement Program to support Ontario grape growers, wineries, small distilleries and craft cideries; and
  • Funding of $8 million to create the Audit and Accountability Fund to allow municipal and school board partners to conduct reviews of programs and services with a goal of finding efficiencies.

Contingency Funds decreased by $551 million to offset select program expense changes that have occurred since the 2019 Budget.

Interest on Debt expense is $430 million lower than projected in the 2019 Budget, primarily as a result of lower 2018–19 and 2019–20 deficits and lower-than-forecast interest rates.

Prudence

The 2019 Budget included a reserve of $1.0 billion in 2019–20 to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes to revenue and expense. The reserve remains unchanged at $1.0 billion to ensure a prudent risk management approach given uncertainties remaining in the fiscal outlook for 2019–20.

Contingency funds are also maintained to help mitigate expense risks that may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. The current contingency fund level is $0.5 billion in 2019–20.

Key Changes to the Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook since the 2019 Budget

The government continues to project steadily declining deficits over the medium term, with fiscal improvements of $0.1 billion in both 2020–21 and 2021–22, since the 2019 Budget. The government is now projecting deficits of $6.7 billion in 2020–21 and $5.4 billion in 2021–22.

Over the medium term, projected revenue has increased by $1.7 billion in 2020–21 and 2021–22, relative to the 2019 Budget. Over the same period, total expense is projected to increase by $1.5 billion in 2020–21, and $1.6 billion in 2021–22.

Table 3.5
Summary of Changes to the Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
($ Billions)
  Current Outlook
2019–20
Medium-Term Outlook
2020–21
Medium-Term
Outlook
2021–22
Surplus/(Deficit) from the 2019 Budget (10.3) (6.8) (5.6)
Revenue Changes (see Table 3.6) 1.6 1.7 1.7
Expense Changes — Total Program Expense Changes (see Table 3.8) 0.8 2.0 2.1
Expense Changes — Interest on Debt Changes (0.4) (0.5) (0.5)
Total Expense Changes 0.3 1.5 1.6
Change in Reserve
Fiscal Improvement/(Deterioration) 1.3 0.1 0.1
2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Surplus/(Deficit) (9.0) (6.7) (5.4)

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Revenue

Ontario’s economy continues to generate higher revenues than expected at the time of the 2019 Budget.

Table 3.6
Summary of Changes to the Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
($ Billions)
  Current Outlook
2019–20
Medium-Term
Outlook
2020–21
Medium-Term
Outlook
2021–22
2019 Budget Total Revenue 154.2 159.8 163.7
Revenue Changes — Personal Income Tax 0.5 0.4 0.5
Revenue Changes — Corporations Tax 0.9 1.0 1.0
Revenue Changes — Other Taxes Combined 0.1 0.2 0.2
Revenue Changes — Cannabis Revenue 0.1 0.1
Total Revenue Changes since 2019 Budget 1.6 1.7 1.7
2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Revenue 155.8 161.5 165.4

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of Revenue Changes

  • Processing of 2018 tax returns boosted the base upon which Personal Income Tax (PIT) and Corporations Tax (CT) growth is applied, increasing the level of revenues in each forecasted year from 2019–20 and onwards. The taxation revenue forecast includes the net impact of tax reductions announced in this document. See Annex: Details of Tax Measures for more information;
  • Higher amounts from all Other Taxes Combined recorded to date have increased the forecast for 2019–20 onwards;
  • Projected revenues related to Cannabis—including the Ontario portion of the federal cannabis excise duty and the Ontario Cannabis Store (OCS) net income/(loss) — have increased by approximately $0.1 billion in the medium-term outlook due to an increase in the number of private cannabis retail stores from 25 stores to 75 stores and the introduction of new cannabis product classes.  For more information, refer to the following Cannabis-Related Revenue section; and
  • Net changes to all other revenue sources combined remains close to the 2019 Budget outlook. This includes relief from previously scheduled fee increases including: freezing key driver, vehicle and commercial fees until July 1, 2020; the impact of an extension of the fee waiver for a
    change-of-sex designation on birth registrations; and the elimination of the Driver’s Licence Check service fee for a single driver’s licence check order.

Cannabis-Related Revenue

Estimates of cannabis-related revenue include Ontario’s portion of the federal cannabis excise duty and the net income of the OCS. Ontario’s outlook for cannabis-related revenue reflects the Province’s temporary measure of permitting up to 75 private cannabis retail stores and the introduction of new cannabis product classes. The cannabis‐related revenue outlook will change as further retail store authorizations are issued, including the up to 18 additional stores on First Nation reserves that were recently announced.

Table 3.7
Summary of Medium-Term Cannabis-Related Revenue
($ Millions)
Revenue Current Outlook
2019–20
Medium-Term
Outlook
2020–21
Medium-Term
Outlook
2021–22
Ontario Portion of Federal Cannabis Excise Duty 70 140 150
Ontario Cannabis Store Net Income/(Loss) 10 75 80

Expense

The government continues to support the people of Ontario as part of a balanced plan to invest in critical services. The government is investing an additional $4.9 billion, over three years, in programs such as health care, education, child care, and social services for the province’s most vulnerable people, relative to the 2019 Budget.

Table 3.8
Multi-Year Expense Changes Since the 2019 Budget
($ Billions)
  Current Outlook
2019–20
Medium-Term
Outlook
2020–21
Medium-Term
Outlook
2021–22
2019 Budget Total Expense 163.4 165.6 168.2
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Health Sector1 0.4 0.5 0.5
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Education Sector 0.2 0.2 0.2
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Postsecondary Education and Training Sector2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Children’s and Social Services Sector 0.6 0.8 0.7
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Justice Sector 0.1 0.1
Program Expense Changes since 2019 Budget — Other Programs3 (0.5) 0.3 0.5
Total Program Expense Changes 0.8 2.0 2.1
Change in Interest on Debt (0.4) (0.5) (0.5)
Total Expense Changes since 2019 Budget 0.3 1.5 1.6
2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Expense 163.8 167.2 169.8

Table 3.8 footnotes:

[1], [2], [3] Sectors are reported based on the 2019 Budget ministry structure. Impacts on sectors resulting from changes to ministry structures made since the 2019 Budget will be reflected in future updates.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Sector changes shown in the table exclude fiscally neutral accounting presentation adjustments.

Details of Expense Changes

The expense outlook over the medium term is higher, mainly because:

  • Health Sector expense is projected to increase by $0.4 billion in 2019–20 and $0.5 billion in both 2020–21 and 2021–22, primarily due to utilization changes for physician and other services under OHIP and community-based health care services;
  • Education Sector expense is projected to increase by $0.2 billion in each year, primarily due to investments in child care programs;
  • Postsecondary Education and Training Sector expense has been maintained since the 2019 Budget. Key initiatives in this sector include restoring financial sustainability to the Ontario Student Assistance Plan (OSAP) and making sustained investments in Ontario’s universities, colleges and employment and training programs;
  • Children’s and Social Services Sector expense is projected to increase by $0.6 billion in 2019–20, $0.8 billion in 2020–21 and $0.7 billion in 2021–22, compared to the 2019 Budget, primarily due to increasing investments in the Ontario Autism Program and deferring changes in social assistance while transformation is underway;
  • Justice Sector expense is projected to increase by $0.1 billion in each of 2020–21 and 2021–22, primarily due to compensation investments for the Ontario Provincial Police, correctional services workers, provincial lawyers and judicial officers; and 
  • Other Programs Sector expense is projected to decrease by $0.5 billion in 2019–20, and increase by $0.3 billion in 2020–21 and $0.5 billion in 2021–22, to help mitigate expense risks as part of the government’s prudent planning approach.

Interest on Debt expense is projected to be lower over the medium term, relative to the 2019 Budget forecast, due to lower 2018–19 and 2019–20 deficits and lower-than-forecast interest rates.

Prudence

The 2019 Budget included a reserve of $1.0 billion in 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22 to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes to revenue and expense. The reserve remains unchanged at $1.0 billion in each year over the medium-term outlook, reflecting prudent fiscal management. Contingency funds are also maintained over the medium term to help mitigate expense risks.

Transparency and Risks

The government is committed to being open and transparent about the state of Ontario’s finances. This principle is reflected in the new Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 (FSTAA) which stipulates that Ontario’s fiscal policy should be based on cautious assumptions. FSTAA also requires that a mid-year review of Ontario’s finances be released on or before November 15th of each year. In compliance with the legislated framework this document is being released in advance of that deadline.

While mid-year updates to the government’s finances are informed by the latest information available, key information still to be received over the remainder of the fiscal year have further upside and downside risks which could materially affect the fiscal outlook. Revenue could be affected by changes in the economy, such as global events, and taxes collected, while expenses could be impacted by changes in utilization of large demand driven programs. For example,

  • For every percentage point change in forecasted nominal GDP growth, taxation revenues are expected to change by $705 million.
  • A one per cent increase in the number of Ontario Disability Support Program recipients costs the province an additional $56 million.

As a matter of transparent fiscal risk management practices, risks are monitored throughout the fiscal year by Treasury Board, with the goal of ensuring that robust and prudent methodologies are used to develop forecasts. Other important risk management tools include closely tracking the pace of implementation of initiatives and proactively identifying emerging program and policy risks. Comprehensive analysis of known risks informs the fiscal planning processes, including the development of plans to mitigate and manage fiscal risks, as well as integrating risks into medium-term fiscal projections when appropriate.

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019, requires Ontario’s fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontario’s economic performance. Additionally, contingency funds are maintained to help mitigate expense risks — for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised and which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. In keeping with sound fiscal practices, the Province’s revenue outlook is based on prudent economic assumptions, as discussed in Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.

Details of Ontario’s Finances

Table 3.9
Revenue
($ Millions)
  Actual
2016–17
Actual
2017–18
Actual
2018–19
Current Outlook
2019–20
Taxation Revenue — Personal Income Tax 30,671 32,900 35,381 37,125
Taxation Revenue — Sales Tax 24,750 25,923 27,804 28,067
Taxation Revenue — Corporations Tax 14,872 15,612 16,606 16,107
Taxation Revenue — Education Property Tax 5,868 5,883 6,171 6,197
Taxation Revenue — Employer Health Tax 5,908 6,205 6,544 6,791
Taxation Revenue — Ontario Health Premium 3,575 3,672 3,819 4,035
Taxation Revenue — Gasoline Tax 2,626 2,701 2,709 2,741
Taxation Revenue — Land Transfer Tax 2,728 3,174 2,761 2,967
Taxation Revenue — Tobacco Tax 1,230 1,244 1,241 1,205
Taxation Revenue — Fuel Tax 742 760 774 789
Taxation Revenue — Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes 589 603 607 603
Taxation Revenue — Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty 19 70
Taxation Revenue — Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes 334 494 435 488
Taxation Revenue — Other Taxes 453 552 653 558
Taxation Revenue — Total 94,346 99,723 105,524 107,744
Government of Canada — Canada Health Transfer 13,910 14,359 14,852 15,646
Government of Canada — Canada Social Transfer 5,146 5,314 5,451 5,653
Government of Canada — Equalization 2,304 1,424 963
Government of Canada — Infrastructure Programs 732 1,065 605 1,043
Government of Canada — Labour Market Programs 965 969 1,015 1,036
Government of Canada — Social Housing Agreement 441 419 394 359
Government of Canada — Other Federal Payments 761 996 1,420 1,386
Government of Canada — Direct Transfers to Broader Public-Sector Organizations 285 314 390 330
Government of Canada — Total 24,544 24,860 25,090 25,453
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 2,358 2,487 2,464 2,414
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Liquor Control Board of Ontario 2,349 2,207 2,276 2,339
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Cannabis Store –  (6) (42) 10
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd.1 860 1,464 772 1,058
Income from Government Business Enterprises — Total 5,567 6,152 5,470 5,821
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Reimbursements 988 1,000 998 981
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,727 1,912 1,991 2,055
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Electricity Debt Retirement Charge2 621 593 15
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Power Supply Contract Recoveries 838 185 173 125
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Sales and Rentals3 1,999 2,450 1,477 1,592
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Carbon Allowance Proceeds4 –  2,401 472
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Other Fees and Licences 974 1,029 1,088 1,080
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contracts 129 74 41 30
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Royalties 272 290 251 287
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges 7,957 8,309 9,237 9,364
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue 772 1,616 1,873 1,230
Other Non-Tax Revenue — Total 16,277 19,859 17,616 16,744
Total Revenue 140,734 150,594 153,700 155,761

Table 3.9 footnotes:

[1] Includes income from Brampton Distribution Holdco Inc. for 2016–17 only from its interest in Hydro One Brampton Networks Inc. On February 28, 2017, the Province sold its entire interest in Hydro One Brampton Networks Inc. and it is no longer included as a Government Business Enterprise.

[2] The Debt Retirement Charge cost was removed from residential electricity users’ electricity bills as of January 1, 2016 and for all other consumers as of April 1, 2018. Residual revenues recorded afterwards due to higher than expected amounts received following the 2017–18 year-end, compared to the estimated accrual amounts in 2017–18.

[3] Higher Sales and Rentals revenues in 2016–17 and 2017–18 compared to 2018–19 and 2019–20 are mainly due to significant, non-recurring asset sale initiatives such as the sale of Hydro One shares.

[4] Declining Carbon Allowance Proceeds reflects the passing of the Cap and Trade Cancellation Act, 2018 on October 31, 2018.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Table 3.10
Total Expense1, 2
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense Actual 2016–17 Actual     2017–18 Actual
2018–19
Current Outlook
2019–20
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Base) 1,020 892 970 841.2
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs — Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 102 96 38.5
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Total) 1,020 994 1,066 879.8
Attorney General (Total) 1,651 1,688 1,714 1,603.7
Board of Internal Economy (Total) 218 296 371 287.5
Children, Community and Social Services (Total) 15,679 16,315 16,862 17,223.1
Colleges and Universities3 (Base) 8,997 9,369 9,822 9,996.9
Colleges and Universities — Student Financial Assistance 1,048 1,663 2,043 1,372.2
Colleges and Universities — Time-Limited Infrastructure Funding under the Strategic Investment Fund 200 209 119
Colleges and Universities4 (Total) 10,245 11,241 11,984 11,369.1
Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total) 1,016 987 922 773.3
Education (Base) 26,551 27,260 28,747 29,969.5
Education — Teachers’ Pension Plan5 987 1,659 1,678 1,732.0
Education (Total) 27,538 28,919 30,425 31,701.5
Energy, Northern Development and Mines (Base) 1,291 1,407 1,479 1,165.8
Energy, Northern Development and Mines — Electricity Cost Relief Programs 426 2,834 4,242 4,012.7
Energy, Northern Development and Mines (Total) 1,717 4,242 5,721 5,178.5
Environment, Conservation and Parks (Base) 620 699 459 606.2
Environment, Conservation and Parks — Time-Limited Investments 145 223
Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total) 620 844 682 606.2
Executive Offices (Total) 37 41 38 37.5
Finance (Base) 829 844 954 819.5
Finance — Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 505 506 510 505.0
Finance — Power Supply Contract Costs 838 191 173 125.1
Finance (Total) 2,172 1,541 1,637 1,449.6
Francophone Affairs (Total) 5 6 6 5.8
Government and Consumer Services (Total) 1,669 1,771 1,757 1,687.2
Health and Long-Term Care6 (Total) 56,211 59,138 61,904 63,830.8
Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries7 (Base) 1,463 1,589 1,562 1,511.5
Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries — Time-Limited Funding: Ontario 150 and Pan/Parapan American Games 96 6
Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries8 (Total) 1,559 1,595 1,562 1,511.5
Indigenous Affairs (Base) 85 86 75 72.2
Indigenous Affairs — One-Time Investments including Settlements9 40 1,122 215
Indigenous Affairs (Total) 125 1,208 290 72.2
Infrastructure (Base) 165 228 162 415.8
Infrastructure — Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 8 248 352 133.7
Infrastructure (Total) 172 476 513 549.5
Labour, Training, and Skills Development10 (Total) 292 302 307 292.9
Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base) 974 1,034 843 840.5
Municipal Affairs and Housing — Time-Limited Investments 565 334 636 270.9
Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total) 1,539 1,368 1,479 1,111.5
Natural Resources and Forestry (Base) 535 606 508 568.8
Natural Resources and Forestry — Emergency Forest Firefighting 107 117 208 129.8
Natural Resources and Forestry (Total) 642 723 716 698.6
Seniors and Accessibility (Total) 37 48 52 50.8
Solicitor General (Total) 2,448 2,549 2,681 2,644.7
Transportation (Base) 3,592 4,054 4,420 4,487.5
Transportation — Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 404 297 638.5
Transportation (Total) 3,592 4,458 4,718 5,126.0
Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) 172 172 182 287.5
Treasury Board Secretariat — Employee and Pensioner Benefits11 1,082 1,442 1,165 1,352.0
Treasury Board Secretariat — Operating Contingency Fund 224.1
Treasury Board Secretariat — Capital Contingency Fund 325.0
Treasury Board Secretariat (Total) 1,254 1,614 1,346 2,188.6
Interest on Debt12 11,709 11,903 12,384 12,905.0
Year-End Savings
Total Expense 143,169 154,266 161,135 163,784.8

Table 3.10 footnotes:

[1], [3], [4], [7], [8], [10] On October 21, 2019 the government announced that the Ministry of Labour would become the Ministry of Labour, Training and Skills Development; the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities would become the Ministry of Colleges and Universities; and the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport would become the Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries. Changes to names of these ministries are reflected in the 2019 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; any resulting changes to ministry expense will be reflected in future updates.

[2] Ministry expenses have been reclassified to aggregate all expenses incurred related to the Government Real Estate Portfolio (GREP) under the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services and projects supported through Infrastructure Ontario under the Ministry of Infrastructure, which hold responsibility for the activities of these two government entities. The actual results are presented on similar basis for consistency.

[5], [11] Numbers reflect the pension expense that was calculated based on recommendations of the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry, as described in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements in Public Accounts of Ontario 2017–2018.

[6] On June 20, 2019 the government announced that the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care would become the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Future updates will report the two ministries separately.

[9] Numbers reflect the payment or liability related to one-time investments for land claim settlements and other items. The amounts fluctuate based on the land claims negotiated in each year.

[12] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $159 million in 2016–17, $157 million in 2017–18, $175 million in 2018–19 and $475 million in 2019–20.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Chart 3.1: Composition of Revenue, 2019–20
Accessible description of Chart 3.1
Chart 3.2: Composition of Total Expense, 2019–20
Accessible description of Chart 3.2
Table 3.11
Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
Sector Total
Infrastructure
Expenditures
2018–19 Actual1
2019–20
Current Outlook
Investment
in
Capital Assets2
2019–20
Current Outlook
Transfers and
Other Infrastructure
Expenditures3
2019–20
Current Outlook
Total
Infrastructure
Expenditures
Transportation — Transit 4,706 4,294 1,234 5,527
Transportation — Provincial Highways 2,320 2,577 160 2,737
Transportation — Other Transportation, Property and Planning 254 189 96 284
Health — Hospitals 2,782 2,354 3 2,357
Health — Other Health 200 78 158 237
Education 2,509 2,416 10 2,426
Postsecondary — Colleges and Other 800 297 2 299
Postsecondary — Universities 242 52 52
Social 429 25 272 297
Justice 259 487 130 617
Other Sectors4 1,368 850 939 1789
Total Infrastructure Expenditures 15,870 13,566 3,056 16,623
Less: Other Partner Funding5 2,499 1,891 1,891
Total6 13,371 11,675 3,056 14,732

Table 3.11 footnotes:

[1] Includes Provincial investment in capital assets of $13 billion.

[2] Includes $475 million in interest capitalized during construction.

[3] Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

[4] Includes government administration, natural resources, and the culture and tourism industries.

[5] Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.

[6] Includes Federal/Municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Table 3.12
Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1, 2
($ Millions)
  2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 Actual
2018–19
Current
Outlook
2019–20
Revenue 113,594 116,401 120,319 122,955 126,152 136,148 140,734 150,594 153,700 155,761
Expense — Programs 120,843 121,222 120,103 123,330 126,199 129,905 131,460 142,363 148,751   150,880
Expense — Interest on Debt3 10,005 10,587 10,878 11,155 11,221 11,589 11,709 11,903 12,384 12,905
Total Expense 130,848 131,809 130,981 134,485 137,420 141,494 143,169 154,266 161,135 163,785
Reserve 1,000  
Surplus/(Deficit) (17,254) (15,408) (10,662) (11,530) (11,268) (5,346) (2,435) (3,672) (7,435) (9,024)
Net Debt 217,754 241,912 259,947 276,169 294,557 306,357 314,077 323,834 338,496 353,743
Accumulated Deficit 147,816 164,092 174,256 184,835 196,665 203,014 205,939 209,023 216,642 224,666
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 630,983 659,740 680,086 695,352 726,053 759,440 792,932 825,805 854,742 883,663
Primary Household Income 424,251 444,076 459,111 472,921 489,436 511,577 519,413 544,062 570,072 592,882
Population — July (000s)4 13,136 13,261 13,391 13,511 13,618 13,707 13,875 14,073 14,319 14,567
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 16,577 18,242 19,413 20,441 21,631 22,350 22,636 23,012 23,640 24,285
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 32,297 33,486 34,286 35,003 35,942 37,322 37,434 38,661 39,814 40,702
Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 8.8% 9.1% 9.0% 9.1% 8.9% 8.5% 8.3% 7.9% 8.1% 8.3%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 34.5% 36.7% 38.2% 39.7% 40.6% 40.3% 39.6% 39.2% 39.6% 40.0%
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 23.4% 24.9% 25.6% 26.6% 27.1% 26.7% 26.0% 25.3% 25.3% 25.4%

Table 3.12 footnotes:

[1] Amounts reflect a change in pension expense that was calculated based on recommendations of the Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry, as described in Note 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in Public Accounts of Ontario 2017–2018. Amounts for net debt and accumulated deficit also reflect this change.

[2] Revenues and expenses have been restated to reflect the following fiscally neutral changes: i) revised presentation of education property taxes to be included in the taxation revenues; ii) reclassification of certain Government Business Enterprises to other government organizations; iii) reclassification of a number of tax measures that provide a financial benefit through the tax system to be reported as expenses; and iv) change in presentation of third-party revenue for hospitals, school boards and colleges to be reported as revenue.

[3] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $165 million in 2015–16, $159 million in 2016–17, $157 million in 2017–18, $175 million in 2018–19 and $475 million in 2019–20.

[4] Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2010­–11, the population on July 1, 2010 is shown).

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat.

Chart Descriptions

Chart 3.1: Composition of Revenue, 2019–20

This pie chart shows the composition of Ontario’s revenue in 2019–20, which totals $155.8 billion. The largest taxation revenue source is Personal Income Tax revenue at $37.1 billion, accounting for 23.8 per cent of total revenue. This is followed by Sales Tax at $28.1 billion, or 18.0 per cent of total revenue; and Corporations Tax at $16.1 billion, or 10.3 per cent of total revenue. Other components of taxation revenue include Education Property Tax at $6.2 billion, or 4.0 per cent of total revenue; Employer Health Tax at $6.8 billion, or 4.4 per cent; Gasoline and Fuel Taxes at $3.5 billion, or 2.3 per cent; the Ontario Health Premium at $4.0 billion, or 2.6 per cent; and Other Taxes at $5.9 billion, or 3.8 per cent of total revenue.

Total taxation revenue accounts for $107.7 billion, or 69.2 per cent of total revenue.

The other major non-taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers of $25.5 billion, or 16.3 per cent of total revenue; Income from Government Business Enterprises at $5.8 billion, or 3.7 per cent of total revenue; and various Other Non-Tax Revenue at $16.7 billion, or 10.7 per cent of total revenue.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Return to Chart 3.1

Chart 3.2: Composition of Total Expense, 2019–20

This pie chart shows the share of Ontario’s total expense and dollar amounts by sector in 2019–20.

Total expense in 2019–20 is $163.8 billion.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $63.8 billion, accounting for 39.0 per cent of total expense.

The remaining sectors of total expense include the Education Sector at $30.0 billion or 18.3 per cent; the Postsecondary Education and Training Sector at $11.4 billion or 6.9 per cent; the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $17.2 billion or 10.5 per cent; the Justice Sector at $4.2 billion or 2.6 per cent; and Other Programs at $24.2 billion or 14.8 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of Total Expense, is $12.9 billion or 7.9 per cent.

Note that the Education Sector excludes the Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Note that sectors are reported based on the 2019 Budget ministry structure. Impacts on sectors resulting from changes to ministry structures made since the 2019 Budget will be reflected in future updates.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Return to Chart 3.2

Updated: November 6, 2019
Published: November 6, 2019