Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

Introduction

Ontario conducts its borrowing program responsibly and prudently to manage interest on debt (IOD) costs.

Ontario completed $41.1 billion in long-term borrowing in 2021–22. This is $13.5 billion lower than anticipated in the 2021 Budget forecast, primarily due to lower deficits in fiscal years 2020–21 and 2021–22. The 2022–23 long-term public borrowing forecast is $41.5 billion, a further decrease of $17.6 billion from the 2021 Budget forecast.

Ontario is forecast to pay $13.0 billion in interest costs in 2021–22, and $13.5 billion in 2022–23, down from the 2021 Budget forecasts of $13.1 billion and $13.7 billion, respectively.

Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is now forecast to be 40.7 per cent in 2021–22, and 41.4 per cent in 2022–23, down 8.1 and 8.2 percentage points, respectively, from the forecasts of 48.8 per cent and 49.6 per cent in the 2021 Budget.

Ontario’s net debt-to-revenue is forecast to be 228 per cent in 2021–22 and 238 per cent in 2022–23, a decrease of 58 percentage points and 59 percentage points, respectively, from the 2021 Budget forecast.

Ontario’s interest on debt-to-revenue is forecast to be 7.5 per cent in 2021–22 and 2022–23, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, from the 2021 Budget forecast.

Borrowing Program

Ontario’s borrowing program is primarily used to fund deficits, refinance maturing debt and make investments in capital assets. Ontario will continue to finance most of its borrowing program in the long-term public markets in Canada and internationally.

Table 4.1
2021–22 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
($ Billions)
  2021–22 —
2021 Budget
2021–22 —
Change from 2021 Budget
2021–22 —
Interim1
2021–22
Medium-Term Outlook
2022–23
Medium-Term Outlook
2023–24
Medium-Term Outlook
2024–25
Deficit/(Surplus) 33.1 (19.6) 13.5 19.9 12.3 7.6
Investment in Capital Assets 11.8 1.0 12.9 13.4 13.6 14.8
Non-Cash Adjustments (9.5) 1.1 (8.4) (9.7) (9.6) (10.5)
Loans to Infrastructure Ontario 0.2 0.0 0.3 (0.1) 0.2 0.0
Other Net Loans/Investments 1.3 (1.4) (0.1) 0.7 (0.1) (0.9)
Debt Maturities/Redemptions 25.0 0.0 25.0 30.5 31.2 27.8
Total Funding Requirement 61.9 (18.9) 43.1 54.7 47.6 38.9
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (6.0) 6.0 (3.0) (3.0)
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents 4.0 4.0
Pre-borrowing in 2020–21 for 2021–22 (5.2) (10.9) (16.2)
Pre-borrowing for 2022–23 10.3 10.3 (10.3)
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing 54.7 (13.5) 41.1 41.5 44.6 38.9

Table 4.1 footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2022 Budget projection for the 2021–22 fiscal year.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Ontario’s long-term borrowing requirement for 2021–22 decreased by $13.5 billion from the 2021 Budget forecast. This is primarily due to a lower deficit forecast for 2021–22, combined with higher opening cash levels at the beginning of 2021–22 due to lower than planned deficit results for 2020–21. Ontario has completed its long-term public borrowing for 2021–22 of $41.1 billion, including $10.3 billion in pre-borrowing for 2022–23.

The 2021 Budget forecasted an increase of $6.0 billion in short-term borrowing for 2021–22. However, the lower deficits allowed Ontario to leave the amount outstanding in its short-term borrowing program unchanged in 2021–22, a $6.0 billion decrease from the original projection.

The total long-term borrowing requirements for 2021–22 through 2023–24 are now forecast to be a cumulative $41.7 billion lower than forecast in the medium-term outlook in the 2021 Budget. This includes a decrease of $17.6 billion for 2022–23 and $10.6 billion for 2023–24. The long-term borrowing requirement for 2024–25, which was not included in the 2021 Budget, is forecast at $38.9 billion, and would be the lowest long-term borrowing program since 2017–18.

The government will seek approval from the Legislature for borrowing authority to meet Ontario’s requirements.

In the event that alternative economic scenarios materialize, Ontario’s borrowing requirements in the next three years would also change. See Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief for more details and a description of the resulting alternative medium-term outlook scenarios. Under the Faster Growth scenario, long-term borrowing would decrease by a total of $22.4 billion over the three-year outlook period, while under the Slower Growth scenario, long-term borrowing would increase by $16.2 billion over the same period.

Chart 4.1: Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Accessible description of Chart 4.1

Approximately 78 per cent of 2021–22 borrowing was completed in Canadian dollars primarily through 36 syndicated issues and two Green Bonds. This percentage is near the top end of Ontario’s target range for domestic borrowing of 65 to 80 per cent for the fiscal year. Based on the 2021–22 experience, Ontario plans to retain the same target range for 2022–23 but will adjust, if necessary, in response to evolving investor demand in the Canadian dollar and foreign currency markets.

Chart 4.2: 2021–22 Borrowing
Accessible description of Chart 4.2

Foreign currency borrowing helps reduce Ontario’s overall borrowing costs by continuing to diversify Ontario’s investor base. This diversification ensures the government will continue to have access to capital even if domestic market conditions become challenging. Approximately $9.2 billion, or 22 per cent of this year’s long-term borrowing, was completed in foreign currencies, primarily in U.S. dollars and euros.

Chart 4.3: Domestic and International Borrowing
Accessible description of Chart 4.3

Green Bond Program

Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program and are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather-resistant infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, totalling $12.5 billion issued since 2014–15, with $12.0 billion outstanding.

Chart 4.4: Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
Accessible description of Chart 4.4

On February 2, 2022, Ontario issued its second Green Bond in 2021–22, and eleventh Green Bond overall. This issue was for $1.75 billion and followed a $2.75 billion issue in July 2021. The total $4.5 billion issued in 2021–22 was the most in any single year since the inception of Ontario’s Green Bond program. Eight projects were selected to receive funding from the most recent Green Bond. This included six Clean Transportation projects, one Energy Efficiency and Conservation project and one project under the Climate Adaptation and Resilience framework category:

  • Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit (LRT);
  • GO Transit Expansion;
  • Finch West LRT;
  • Hurontario LRT;
  • Ontario Line Subway;
  • Scarborough Subway Extension;
  • West Park Healthcare Centre; and
  • Port Lands Flood Protection.

Ontario is considering updating its Green Bond Framework. The update may include better alignment of framework categories with the Green Bond Principles through standardized wording, as well as the possible expansion from green to sustainable to allow for a greater breadth of potential bond offerings in the future.

Ontario plans to continue its leadership in the Canadian dollar Green Bond market and, subject to market conditions, will issue multiple Green Bonds each fiscal year, including in 2022–23.

Chart 4.5: Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
Accessible description of Chart 4.5

Cost of Debt

The three-decade decline in interest rates is beginning to change, as central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have begun raising overnight interest rates. This will impact Ontario’s interest on debt (IOD) costs. Chart 4.6 shows the declining effective interest rate Ontario is paying on its total debt portfolio.

Chart 4.6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
Accessible description of Chart 4.6

The overall increase in interest rates has resulted in Ontario’s cost of borrowing in 2021–22 going up by 20 basis points from the 1.90 per cent forecast in the 2021 Budget. Ontario’s average cost of borrowing in 2022–23 is forecast to be 3.40 per cent, 100 basis points higher than the forecast for 2022–23 in the 2021 Budget. A one percentage point change in interest rates either up or down from the current forecast is estimated to have a corresponding change in Ontario’s interest costs by over $700 million in the first full year.

Chart 4.7 shows average borrowing rates on debt issued in 2021–22 and the forecast used to estimate the future cost of borrowing or IOD expense.

Chart 4.7: Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
Accessible description of Chart 4.7

Lower than forecast deficits and borrowing requirements have reduced Ontario’s IOD costs, in spite of rising interest rates. The IOD forecast for 2021–22 is $13.0 billion, down from the 2021 Budget forecast of $13.1 billion, and remains lower for each year of the medium-term outlook than the IOD forecast contained in the 2021 Budget, as shown in Chart 4.8. However, IOD remains Ontario’s fourth largest expense after health care, education, and children’s and social services. The rising cost of IOD could mean less resources would be available to be allocated to the priorities of the people of Ontario, reinforcing the importance of Ontario’s commitment to responsible fiscal management, including reducing the debt burden and balancing the budget.

Chart 4.8: Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast
Accessible description of Chart 4.8

Term of Debt

Ontario has continued to extend the term of its debt, when investor demand allowed, to reduce refinancing risk on maturing debt. This also continues to protect the IOD forecast against increases in interest rates. Ontario has issued $113.9 billion of bonds, or more than one-quarter of total debt, with maturities of 30 years or longer since 2010–11. This includes $10.4 billion in 2021–22.

With interest rates rising but still low compared to the period preceding the global financial crisis in 2007–08, and a large borrowing program and debt portfolio, the current plan is to maintain the term of Ontario’s debt at the level it has been at since 2014–15. The success Ontario has had in extending the term of its debt from the time of the global financial crisis leaves it with flexibility going forward, so the rise in long-term interest rates will be monitored to determine whether a modest change to Ontario’s debt term strategy is appropriate in 2022–23.

Chart 4.9: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
Accessible description of Chart 4.9

Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels

Ontario balances the objective of minimizing the cost of holding liquid reserves against the need to always have enough cash on hand to pay its bills, invest in capital assets, refinance maturing debt and pay interest.

Ontario has built larger cash reserves over the last two years, as depicted in Chart 4.10, in anticipation of the need to meet requirements for large cash outflows on a single day including when maturing benchmark bond issues in excess of $10 billion come due. Cash reserves also allow the government to quickly respond to any unforeseen borrowing market, economic or public health circumstances.

Chart 4.10: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
Accessible description of Chart 4.10

Debt Burden Reduction Strategy

The government remains committed to reducing the debt burden and putting Ontario’s finances back on a more sustainable path. In addition to a path to balance by 2027–28, two years earlier than projected in the 2021 Budget, Ontario has made positive progress towards each of the existing targets in its debt burden reduction strategy and added one new target.

Ontario’s 2021–22 net debt-to-GDP ratio is now forecast to be 40.7 per cent, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points from the forecasted 48.8 per cent at the time of the 2021 Budget. This was due to lower than previously projected deficits and higher nominal GDP growth. Ontario’s new target for the net debt-to-GDP ratio is to stay below 42.0 per cent over the medium-term outlook. This is down from the 2021 Budget target of 50.5 per cent, which reflected a high level of economic uncertainty as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Over the medium-term outlook, Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP in both 2022–23 and 2023–24 is now forecast to be 41.4 per cent, reducing to 41.3 per cent in 2024–25.

Chart 4.11: Net Debt-to-GDP
Accessible description of Chart 4.11

As of the 2021 Budget, in addition to net debt-to-GDP, the government began reporting on net debt-to-revenue and interest on debt-to-revenue as part of the overall debt burden reduction strategy.

The net debt-to-revenue ratio is projected to be 228 per cent in 2021–22, 58 percentage points below the 286 per cent forecast in the 2021 Budget. This ratio is an indicator of how many years it would take to eliminate the debt if the Ontario government were to spend all its annual revenue on debt repayment. Ontario’s objective in the 2021 Budget was to slow the rate of increase in the net debt-to-revenue ratio, supported by GDP growth. While this objective remains unchanged, it is now supported by a target for this ratio to stay below 250 per cent over the medium term. Over the medium–term outlook, this ratio is forecast to be 238 per cent in 2022–23, 239 per cent in 2023–24, and 238 per cent in 2024–25.

Chart 4.12: Net Debt-to-Revenue
Accessible description of Chart 4.12

The IOD-to-revenue ratio is forecast to be 7.5 per cent in 2021–22, 1.0 percentage point lower than the 8.5 per cent forecast in the 2021 Budget. This ratio represents how much Ontario needs to spend on interest for every revenue dollar received. Ontario’s objective in the 2021 Budget was to slow the rate of increase in the IOD-to-revenue ratio, supported by GDP growth. While this objective remains unchanged, it is now supported by a target for this ratio to stay below 8.0 per cent over the medium-term outlook. Despite increases in deficits and borrowing requirements caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, IOD-to-revenue over the medium term continues to remain lower than forecasted in the pre-pandemic 2019 Budget. It is also lower over the medium-term outlook when compared to the forecast in the 2021 Budget, demonstrating the continued relative affordability of Ontario’s debt. This ratio is forecast to remain lower than its level last seen in the early 1990s.

Chart 4.13: Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
Accessible description of Chart 4.13

In response to the Office of the Auditor General of Ontario’s annual follow-up on value-for-money audit recommendations,1 Ontario is now introducing an additional relevant measure of debt sustainability in Ontario’s debt burden reduction strategy: debt maturities-to-net debt. This ratio represents long-term debt (debt three years and longer) maturing in any year, as a percentage of net debt. The current forecast is 6.3 per cent in 2021–22. Ontario’s specific target for the debt maturities-to-net debt ratio is to stay below 10.0 per cent.

Chart 4.14: Debt Maturities-to-Net Debt
Accessible description of Chart 4.14

Consolidated Financial Tables

Table 4.3
Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
($ Millions)
Debt2 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Actual
2020–21
Interim1
2021–22
Plan
2022–23
Publicly Held Debt — Bonds3 315,247 334,940 349,088 382,169 400,259 411,237
Publicly Held Debt — Treasury Bills 17,528 17,546 19,175 24,097 23,425 26,425
Publicly Held Debt — U.S. Commercial Paper4 3,865 3,863 3,891 0 672 672
Publicly Held Debt — Infrastructure Ontario (IO)5 300 300 300 300 300 300
Publicly Held Debt — Other 287 292 264 250 231 217
Total Publicly Held Debt 337,227 356,941 372,718 406,816 424,887 438,851
Non-Public Debt 11,433 11,039 10,010 9,318 8,756 8,668
Total Debt 348,660 367,980 382,728 416,134 433,643 447,519
Less: Holdings of Ontario bonds and treasury bills (11,249) (13,716) (9,938) (11,122) (6,190) (1,052)
Revised Total Debt 337,411 354,264 372,790 405,012 427,453 446,467
Cash and Temporary Investments Excluding Broader Public Sector6 (20,097) (26,250) (25,140) (34,505) (41,343) (36,229)
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments 317,314 328,014 347,650 370,507 386,110 410,238
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities7 (6,791) (3,422) (8,217) (9,505) (2,656) 7,735
Broader Public Sector Net Debt 13,311 13,904 13,899 12,562 11,479 10,680
Net Debt 323,834 338,496 353,332 373,564 394,933 428,653
Non-Financial Assets8 (114,811) (121,854) (127,568) (134,270) (142,143) (152,277)
Accumulated Deficit 209,023 216,642 225,764 239,294 252,790 276,376

Table 4.3 footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2022 Budget projection for the 2021–22 fiscal year.

[2] Includes debt issued by Ontario and all government organizations, including the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC).

[3], [4] All balances are expressed in Canadian dollars. The balances above reflect the effect of related derivative contracts.

[5] IO’s debt is composed of Infrastructure Renewal Bonds ($300 million). IO’s debt is not guaranteed by Ontario.

[6] Cash and temporary investments excludes any holdings in Ontario bonds and T-bills.

[7] Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities include accounts receivable, loans receivable, advances and investments in Government Business Enterprises (GBEs) offset by accounts payable, accrued liabilities, deferred revenue and capital contributions, pensions and other employee future benefits, and other liabilities.

[8] Non-financial assets include the tangible capital assets of Ontario including the broader public sector.

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Table 4.4
Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
($ Millions)
  2022–23 2023–24 2024–25
Total Debt 447,519 464,355 475,477
Cash and Temporary Investments (37,281) (37,281) (37,281)
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments 410,238 427,074 438,196
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities 7,735 12,345 16,991
Broader Public Sector Net Debt 10,680 11,008 13,618
Net Debt 428,653 450,427 468,805
Non-Financial Assets (152,277) (161,719) (172,516)
Accumulated Deficit 276,376 288,708 296,289

Table 4.4 footnotes:

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Footnotes

[1] Office of the Auditor General of Ontario, Annual Follow-Up on Value-for-Money Audits Chapter 1, (2021), https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en21/1-10OFS_en21.pdf

Chart Descriptions

Chart 4.1: Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing

($ Billions)

Year 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25
Planning Projection $41.1 $41.5 $44.6 $38.9
Slower Growth Scenario $41.1 $44.8 $50.1 $46.3
Faster Growth Scenario $41.1 $36.6 $37.2 $28.8

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 4.1

Chart 4.2: 2021–22 Borrowing

Long-term public borrowing of $41.1 billion has been completed for fiscal year 2021–22. This consisted of $26.8 billion (65 per cent) of Canadian dollar syndicated bonds, $4.4 billion (11 per cent) of Canadian dollar Green Bond*, $0.8 billion (2 per cent) in Canadian dollar bond auction, $6.9 billion (17 per cent) of U.S. dollar bonds, $1.8 billion (4 per cent) of euro bonds, $0.3 billion (1 per cent) of Swiss franc bond, and $0.1 billion (<1 per cent) of Australian dollar bonds.

* Face value $4.5 billion

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.2

Chart 4.3: Domestic and International Borrowing

Ontario’s total long-term borrowing completed in 2021–22 is forecast to be $41.1 billion — $32.0 billion was borrowed in the Canadian dollar market and $9.2 billion was borrowed in foreign currencies.

Year Canadian Dollar ($ Billions) Foreign Currencies ($ Billions) Total ($ Billions)
2007–08 15.4 2.6 18.0
2008–09 19.0 9.7 28.7
2009–10 21.4 22.4 43.8
2010–11 23.5 16.4 39.9
2011–12 28.4 6.5 34.9
2012–13 26.4 10.2 36.6
2013–14 29.4 6.6 36.0
2014–15 31.4 8.4 39.9
2015–16 25.8 6.3 32.1
2016–17 19.9 7.1 27.0
2017–18 21.1 12.8 33.9
2018–19 30.6 9.0 39.6
2019–20 28.9 10.6 39.5
2020–21 39.1 20.7 59.8
2021–22 32.0 9.2 41.1

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.3

Chart 4.4: Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category

A total of $12.5 billion in Green Bond funding has provided funding for 28 projects. Eight of those projects are under the Clean Transportation framework category and have received 77 per cent of the funding. Nineteen projects are under the Energy Efficiency and Conservation category and have received 20 per cent of the funding. One project is under the Climate Adaptation and Resilience category and has received three per cent of the funding.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.4

Chart 4.5: Ontario’s Green Bond Issues

Since 2014, Ontario has issued Green Bonds totalling $12.5 billion.

Year 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22
Green Bond Issues ($) $500 million $750 million $800 million $1.0 billion $950 million $1.25 billion $2.75 billion $4.5 billion

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.5

Chart 4.6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt

As of March 31, 2022, the effective interest rate (calculated as a weighted average) for fiscal year-end is forecast to be 3.0 per cent on Ontario’s total debt.

Year Effective Interest Rate (%)
1990–91 10.9
1991–92 10.7
1992–93 10.1
1993–94 9.5
1994–95 9.8
1995–96 9.4
1996–97 9.0
1997–98 9.0
1998–99 8.6
1999–00 8.4
2000–01 8.2
2001–02 7.6
2002–03 7.2
2003–04 6.7
2004–05 6.4
2005–06 6.1
2006–07 6.0
2007–08 5.8
2008–09 5.2
2009–10 4.6
2010–11 4.5
2011–12 4.4
2012–13 4.1
2013–14 3.9
2014–15 3.7
2015–16 3.6
2016–17 3.5
2017–18 3.6
2018–19 3.6
2019–20 3.4
2020–21 3.0
2021–22 3.0

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2020–2021) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.6

Chart 4.7: Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates

Year 2021 Budget(%) 2022 Budget (%)
2021–22 1.90 2.10
2022–23 2.40 3.40
2023–24 3.20 3.60
2024–25 4.10

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.7

Chart 4.8: Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast

Year 2022 Budget ($ Billions) 2021 Budget ($ Billions)
2021–22 13.0 13.1
2022–23 13.5 13.7
2023–24 14.3 14.6
2024–25 14.9

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 4.8

Chart 4.9: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings

The average term of Ontario’s debt portfolio has been extended from 9.7 years in 2009–10 to 10.9 years in 2021–22. The weighted-average borrowing term for 2021–22 was 14.5 years as of March 31, 2022.

Year 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22
Weighted-Average Borrowing Term (Years) 8.1 12.8 13.0 12.4 13.6 14.1 14.2 13.9 12.1 12.9 14.5 12.0 14.5
Debt Portfolio Average Term (Years) 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.9

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.9

Chart 4.10: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels

Average unrestricted liquid reserve levels are forecast to be $47.2 billion as of March 31, 2022.

Year Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels ($ billions)
2009–10 14.4
2010–11 19.4
2011–12 20.2
2012–13 23.3
2013–14 24.9
2014–15 23.6
2015–16 21.7
2016–17 21.1
2017–18 30.1
2018–19 32.7
2019–20 32.3
2020–21 46.2
2021–22 47.2

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.10

Chart 4.11: Net Debt-to-GDP

Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast at 41.4 per cent in 2022–23.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 13.4
1991–92 17.1
1992–93 21.1
1993–94 26.6
1994–95 28.3
1995–96 30.1
1996–97 31.2
1997–98 30.5
1998–99 29.4
1999–00 32.1
2000–01 29.3
2001–02 28.2
2002–03 26.8
2003–04 27.5
2004–05 26.8
2005–06 27.8
2006–07 27.1
2007–08 26.6
2008–09 27.8
2009–10 32.3
2010–11 34.5
2011–12 36.6
2012–13 38.2
2013–14 39.7
2014–15 40.5
2015–16 40.3
2016–17 39.7
2017–18 39.3
2018–19 39.4
2019–20 39.6
2020–21 43.1
2021–22 40.7
2022–23 41.4 39.8 42.5
2023–24 41.4 38.8 43.2
2024–25 41.3 37.8 43.9

Note: See Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth Scenarios.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 4.11

Chart 4.12: Net Debt-to-Revenue

Ontario’s net debt-to-revenue ratio is forecast to be 238 per cent in 2022–23.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 78
1991–92 104
1992–93 126
1993–94 157
1994–95 168
1995–96 176
1996–97 187
1997–98 184
1998–99 182
1999–00 189
2000–01 183
2001–02 183
2002–03 177
2003–04 188
2004–05 170
2005–06 162
2006–07 153
2007–08 146
2008–09 164
2009–10 189
2010–11 192
2011–12 208
2012–13 216
2013–14 225
2014–15 234
2015–16 225
2016–17 223
2017–18 215
2018–19 220
2019–20 226
2020–21 227
2021–22 228
2022–23 238 230 245
2023–24 239 224 251
2024–25 238 216 255

Note: See Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth Scenarios.

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2020–2021) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.12

Chart 4.13: Interest on Debt-to-Revenue

Ontario’s interest on debt-to-revenue ratio is forecast to be 7.5 per cent in 2022–23.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 7.7
1991–92 8.8
1992–93 10.8
1993–94 13.9
1994–95 14.5
1995–96 14.6
1996–97 14.8
1997–98 14.2
1998–99 14.3
1999–00 15.5
2000–01 15.0
2001–02 14.2
2002–03 12.9
2003–04 12.9
2004–05 11.1
2005–06 9.7
2006–07 8.9
2007–08 8.4
2008–09 8.7
2009–10 8.9
2010–11 8.8
2011–12 9.1
2012–13 9.0
2013–14 9.1
2014–15 8.9
2015–16 8.5
2016–17 8.3
2017–18 7.9
2018–19 8.1
2019–20 8.0
2020–21 7.4
2021–22 7.5
2022–23 7.5 7.3 7.7
2023–24 7.6 7.2 7.9
2024–25 7.5 6.9 8.1

Note: See Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth Scenarios.

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2020–2021) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.13

Chart 4.14: Debt Maturities-to-Net Debt

Ontario’s debt maturities-to-net debt ratio is forecast to be 7.1 per cent in 2022–23.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1991–92 1.3
1992–93 1.8
1993–94 1.7
1994–95 2.6
1995–96 2.1
1996–97 6.0
1997–98 6.4
1998–99 6.2
1999–00 6.8
2000–01 7.6
2001–02 7.7
2002–03 10.0
2003–04 8.1
2004–05 11.9
2005–06 13.8
2006–07 10.3
2007–08 9.9
2008–09 12.5
2009–10 7.7
2010–11 7.7
2011–12 5.8
2012–13 6.4
2013–14 9.0
2014–15 7.6
2015–16 7.1
2016–17 6.8
2017–18 5.5
2018–19 6.5
2019–20 7.8
2020–21 7.1
2021–22 6.3
2022–23 7.1 7.2 7.1
2023–24 6.9 7.1 6.8
2024–25 5.9 6.2 5.7

Note: See Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth Scenarios.

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2020–2021) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.14

Updated: April 28, 2022
Published: April 28, 2022