Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

Introduction

As Ontario continues on its path to balance the budget, the borrowing program remains responsibly and prudently managed to minimize interest on debt (IOD).

Ontario has completed $41.8 billion in long-term borrowing in 2023–24. This is $14.3 billion higher than anticipated in the 2023 Budget, primarily as a result of non-cash and cash timing adjustments, a modestly higher deficit for 2023–24 and higher year-end cash levels to pre-borrow for future years’ funding needs. The 2024–25 and 2025–26 long-term public borrowing forecasts are $38.2 billion and $37.7 billion, an increase of $9.5 billion and $4.3 billion from the 2023 Budget forecast, respectively, but only $0.8 billion and $0.7 billion higher than the forecast in the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Long-term public borrowing for 2026–27 is forecast to be $32.8 billion.  

Ontario is forecast to pay $12.8 billion in interest costs in 2023–24, $13.9 billion in 2024–25 and $14.7 billion in 2025–26, down from the 2023 Budget forecast of $14.1 billion, $14.4 billion and $15.1 billion, respectively. These lower interest costs total a cumulative savings of more than $2 billion over the three years, due to lower than projected borrowing costs. Interest costs in 2026–27 are forecast to be $15.2 billion.

Ontario continues to make progress on its debt burden reduction strategy. The net debt-to-GDP ratio is now forecast to be 38.0 per cent in 202324, 39.2 per cent in 2024–25, 39.5 per cent in 2025–26 and 39.1 per cent in 2026–27.

Ontario’s net debt-to-revenue is forecast to be 203 per cent in 2023–24, 214 per cent in 2024–25, 211 per cent in 2025–26 and 209 per cent in 2026–27.

Ontario’s interest on debt-to-revenue is forecast to be 6.3 per cent in 2023–24, 6.8 per cent in 2024–25 and 2025–26, and 6.7 per cent in 2026–27.

Borrowing Program

Ontario’s borrowing program is primarily used to fund deficits, refinance maturing debt, and make investments in capital assets. Ontario will continue to finance most of its borrowing program in the long-term public markets in Canada and internationally.

Table 4.1
2023–24 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
($ Billions)
  2023–24
2023 Budget
2023–24
Change from 2023 Budget
2023–24
Interim1
2023–24
Medium-Term Outlook
2024–25
Medium-Term Outlook
2025–26
Medium-Term Outlook
2026–27
Deficit/(Surplus) 1.3 1.7 3.0 9.8 4.6 (0.5)
Investment in Capital Assets 13.6 1.2 14.7 17.7 20.2 20.4
Non-Cash and Cash Timing Adjustments (9.2) 7.6 (1.6) (11.0) (12.0) (13.9)
Net Loans and Investments 0.1 (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) 0.1
Debt Maturities and Redemptions 31.2 31.2 28.0 33.1 26.9
Total Funding Requirement 37.0 10.1 47.1 44.2 46.0 32.8
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (5.0)
Increase/(Decrease) in Year-End Cash and Cash Equivalents2 5.0 4.3 9.3 (1.0) (8.3)
Pre-borrowing in 2022–23 for 2023–24 (14.5) (14.5)
Total Long-Term Borrowing 27.5 14.3 41.8 38.2 37.7 32.8

Table 4.1 footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2024 Budget projection for the 2023–24 fiscal year.

[2] Starting in 2024–25, pre-borrowing will be reflected as part of the increase in year-end cash and cash equivalents

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Ontario has completed $41.8 billion in long-term borrowing in 2023–24. This is $14.3 billion higher than anticipated in the 2023 Budget, primarily as a result of non-cash and cash timing adjustments, a modestly higher deficit for 2023–24 and higher year-end cash levels to pre-borrow for future years’ funding needs. The 2024–25 and 2025–26 long-term public borrowing forecasts are $38.2 billion and $37.7 billion, an increase of $9.5 billion and $4.3 billion from the 2023 Budget forecast, respectively, but only $0.8 billion and $0.7 billion higher than the forecast in the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Long-term public borrowing for 2026–27 is forecast to be $32.8 billion.

Year-end cash and cash equivalents are forecast to decrease by $1.0 billion in 2024–25 and $8.3 billion in 2025–26. Starting in 2024–25, pre-borrowing will be reflected as part of the increase in year-end cash and cash equivalents, rather than having a separate line for pre-borrowing.

Ontario plans to increase short-term borrowing by $5.0 billion in 2024–25. This positions Ontario to respond to recent changes in market demand for short-term Ontario debt. It will also maintain the proportion of short-term debt as a percentage of total debt outstanding within the target range of five to seven per cent, as it has been over the past 10 years.

In the event that alternative economic scenarios materialize, Ontario’s borrowing requirements in the next three years would also change (see Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for more details, and a description of the resulting alternative medium-term outlook scenarios). Under the Faster Growth scenario, long-term borrowing would decrease by a total of $19.6 billion over the three-year outlook period, while under the Slower Growth scenario, long‑term borrowing would increase by $17.3 billion over the same period.

Chart 4.1: Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Accessible description of Chart 4.1

Approximately 86 per cent of 2023–24 long-term borrowing was completed in Canadian dollars, through 36 syndicated issues, one floating rate note and two Green Bonds. This percentage was within Ontario’s target range for domestic borrowing of 75 to 90 per cent for the 2023–24 fiscal year. Based on the combined experience of the last five fiscal years, Ontario’s target range for domestic borrowing will remain unchanged for 2024–25. This range will be adjusted, if necessary, in response to evolving investor demand in the Canadian dollar and foreign currency debt markets.

Chart 4.2: 2022–23 Borrowing
Accessible description of Chart 4.2

Foreign currency borrowing helps reduce Ontario’s overall borrowing costs by continuing to diversify Ontario’s investor base. This diversification ensures the province will continue to have access to capital even if domestic market conditions become challenging. Approximately $5.9 billion, or 14 per cent of this year’s long-term borrowing, was completed in foreign currencies, primarily in U.S. dollars and euros.

Chart 4.3:
Accessible description of Chart 4.3

Sustainable Bond Program

Green Bonds have been a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program since 2014. They are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather-resistant infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest and most frequent issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, with 15 issues totalling $18.0 billion since 2014–15 and $15.95 billion outstanding.

In January 2024, the government released the new Ontario Sustainable Bond Framework, replacing its Green Bond Framework from 2014. The new framework will allow for a broader range of potential bond offerings in the future, including emissions-free nuclear power.

Chart 4.4:
Accessible description of Chart 4.4

On February 29, 2024, Ontario issued a $1.5 billion Green Bond. This was the second Green Bond issued in 2023–24, fifteenth Green Bond overall, and Ontario’s first Green Bond issued under the new Ontario Sustainable Bond Framework. Five projects were selected to receive funding from the most recent Green Bond:

  • GO Transit Expansion;
  • Hazel McCallion Light Rail Transit;
  • Ontario Line Subway;
  • Scarborough Subway Extension; and
  • Electric Vehicle (EV) ChargeON.

Ontario plans to continue its leadership in the Canadian dollar Green Bond market and, subject to market conditions, will issue multiple Green Bonds each fiscal year, including in 2024–25.

Chart 4.5:
Accessible description of Chart 4.5

Cost of Debt

After a three-decade decline, interest rates have risen as central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have raised overnight interest rates since early 2022. Interest rates have remained elevated throughout 2023 and into 2024. Chart 4.6 shows that while the effective interest rate on Ontario’s debt has risen modestly, it remains low in historical terms due to the decision to lock in long-term rates to extend the term of debt.

Chart 4.6:
Accessible description of Chart 4.6

Ontario’s borrowing costs for 2023–24 are now estimated to be 4.2 per cent, 40 basis points lower than forecasted in the 2023 Budget, as shown in Chart 4.7. Borrowing costs in 2024–25 and 2025–26 are also projected to be lower than forecasted in the 2023 Budget by an even greater margin. A one percentage point change in interest rates, either up or down from the current interest rate forecast, is estimated to have a corresponding change in Ontario’s borrowing costs of approximately $0.7 billion in the first full year.

Chart 4.7:
Accessible description of Chart 4.7

Ontario is forecast to pay $12.8 billion in interest costs in 2023–24, $13.9 billion in 2024–25 and $14.7 billion in 2025–26, down from the 2023 Budget forecasts of $14.1 billion, $14.4 billion and $15.1 billion, respectively. These lower interest costs total a cumulative savings of more than $2 billion over three years, due to lower than projected borrowing costs.

Chart 4.8:
Accessible description of Chart 4.8

Term of Debt

Ontario has continued to extend the term of its debt, to reduce refinancing risk on maturing debt. This also protects the IOD forecast against further increases in interest rates in the long term. Ontario has issued $137.0 billion of bonds, or almost one‑third of total debt outstanding, with maturities of 30 years or longer since 2010–11. This includes $12.8 billion in 2023–24.

The success Ontario has had in extending the term of its debt from the time of the Global Financial Crisis has created flexibility for managing its large borrowing program and debt portfolio. Due to the extension of the term of debt in recent years, the impact on IOD in the short term and medium term has been lessened. Given interest rates have risen to near historical averages, Ontario will monitor the market and adjust the debt term strategy in the future, if necessary, in response to further changes to interest rates and the yield curve.

Chart 4.9:
Accessible description of Chart 4.9

Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels

Ontario aims to maintain an optimal level of cash reserves that balances potential holding costs with the need to have adequate funds to meet its financial obligations in a timely manner, as well as to be able to respond promptly to unforeseen market events or economic shocks. With short-term interest rates higher than long-term rates through 2023–24, holding liquid reserves reduced IOD as short-term investments earned more income than Ontario’s cost of borrowing long-term debt.

Ontario’s cash reserves averaged $46.9 billion in 2023–24. As shown in Chart 4.10, this is higher than the average in the previous fiscal year, reflecting higher operating requirements, investments in infrastructure and debt maturities. 

Chart 4.10:
Accessible description of Chart 4.10

Debt Burden Reduction Strategy

The government remains committed to reducing the debt burden and putting Ontario’s finances back on a more sustainable path. As a result, Ontario has maintained the targets set in the 2023 Budget and continues to make progress towards achieving them over the medium-term outlook. In addition, Ontario’s path to balance by 2026–27 will further support progress towards its debt burden reduction strategy.

Table 4.2
Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
(Per Cent)
  2023 Budget
Target
2023 Budget
2023–23 Forecast
2023 FES
2023-24 Forecast
2024 Budget
2023–24 Forecast
2024 Budget
2024–25 Forecast
Net Debt-to-GDP <40.0 37.8 38.4 38.0 39.2
Net Debt-to-Revenue <200 199 206 203 214
Interest on Debt-to-Revenue <7.5 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.8

Table 4.2 footnotes:

Note: 2023 FES is defined as the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP is projected to be 38.0 per cent in 2023–24, 39.2 per cent in 2024–25 and 39.5 per cent in 2025–26. In comparison to the 2023 Budget, the ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively. The increase in this ratio over the medium-term outlook is primarily due to higher than projected deficits and investments in infrastructure. The ratio is forecast to be 39.1 per cent in 2026–27. This ratio measures the relationship between a government’s obligations and its ability to meet them, indicating the burden of government debt as a share of the economy.

When compared to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points in 2023–24, followed by increases of 0.1 percentage points in 2024–25 and 0.8 percentage points in 2025–26. However, when further compared to the 2022 Budget, the ratio decreased by 3.4 percentage points in 2023–24, 2.1 percentage points in 2024–25 and 1.5 percentage points in 2025–26. These trends indicate that although the net debt-to-GDP ratio increased in comparison to the 2023 Budget, it remains relatively consistent or lower than in other recently published forecasts.

Over the medium-term outlook, the net debt‑to‑GDP ratio is forecast to stay below the target of 40.0 per cent, demonstrating that Ontario continues to make positive progress towards reducing the debt burden, while remaining committed to the target originally set in the 2023 Budget.

Chart 4.11:
Accessible description of Chart 4.11

Ontario’s net debt-to-revenue is projected to be 203 per cent in 2023–24, 214 per cent in 2024–25 and 211 per cent in 2025–26. In comparison to the 2023 Budget, the ratio increased by 4 percentage points, 16 percentage points and 21 percentage points, respectively. The increase in this ratio over the medium‑term outlook is primarily due to reduced revenues as a result of lower projected economic growth, updated tax receipts information and investments in infrastructure. The ratio is forecast to be 209 per cent in 2026–27. This ratio is an indicator of how many years it would take to eliminate the debt if the Ontario government were to spend all its annual revenue on debt repayment.

When compared to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, the ratio decreased by 3 percentage points in 2023–24, followed by increases of 3  percentage points in 2024–25 and 7 percentage points in 2025–26. However, when further compared to the 2022 Budget, the ratio decreased by 36 percentage points in 2023–24 and 25 percentage points in 2024–25 and 2025–26. These trends indicate that although the net debt-to-revenue ratio increased in comparison to the 2023 Budget, it remains relatively consistent or lower than in other recently published forecasts.

Ontario’s target for the net debt-to-revenue ratio remains to be below 200 per cent. Based on the growth trend in net debt and revenue beyond the medium-term outlook, this ratio is expected to meet the target of 200 per cent by 2029–30, or as early as 2026–27 should the Faster Growth scenario materialize.

Chart 4.12:
Accessible description of Chart 4.12

Ontario’s IOD-to-revenue ratio is projected to be 6.3 per cent in 2023–24, 6.8 per cent in 2024–25 and 2025–26. In comparison to the 2023 Budget, the ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points in 2023–24, remained unchanged in 2024–25, and increased by 0.1 percentage points in 2025–26. The ratio is forecast to be 6.7 per cent in 2026–27. This ratio represents how much Ontario needs to spend on interest for every revenue dollar received. A lower IOD-to-revenue ratio frees up more resources for other priorities.

When comparing this ratio to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review and the 2022 Budget, for the years 2023–24 to 2025–26, the ratio improved by up to 1.3 percentage points. Ontario continues to show positive progress on the IOD-to-revenue ratio and is forecasting to meet the target and stay below 7.5 per cent over the medium-term outlook. This ratio remains close to the lowest levels it has been at since the 1980s.

Chart 4.13:
Accessible description of Chart 4.13

Consolidated Financial Tables

Table 4.3
Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
($ Millions)
Debt2 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 Actual
2022–23
Interim1
2023–24
Plan
2024–25
Publicly Held Debt — Bonds3 348,589 381,492 399,628 403,398 416,517 428,080
Publicly Held Debt — Treasury Bills 19,175 24,097 22,301 22,276 20,866 25,866
Publicly Held Debt — U.S. Commercial Paper4 3,891 0 1,735 460 1,694 1,694
Publicly Held Debt — Infrastructure Ontario (IO)5 300 300 300 300 300 300
Publicly Held Debt — Other 264 250 231 217 202 186
Total Publicly Held Debt 372,219 406,139 424,195 426,651 439,579 456,126
Non-Public Debt 10,010 9,318 8,766 8,678 7,953 6,776
Gross Debt 382,229 415,457 432,961 435,329 447,532 462,902
Less: Holdings of own Ontario Bonds and Treasury Bills6 (9,938) (11,122) (7,098) (10,154) (5,586)
Less: Unamortized Discounts, Premiums and Commissions7       (3,376) (4,495)
Total Debt 372,291 404,335 425,863 421,799 437,451 462,902
Other Net Financial (Assets)/Liabilities8 (33,808) (44,396) (54,729) (37,876) (34,669) (34,864)
Broader Public Sector Net Debt 13,899 12,562 11,708 16,561 12,032 11,018
Net Debt 352,382 372,501 382,842 400,484 414,814 439,056
Non-Financial Assets9 (127,568) (134,270) (144,682) (153,680) (165,033) (179,469)
Accumulated Deficit 224,814 238,231 238,160 246,804 249,781 259,587

Table 4.3 footnotes:

[1] Interim represents the 2024 Budget projection for the 2023–24 fiscal year.

[2] Includes debt issued by Ontario and all government organizations, including the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC).

[3], [4] All balances are expressed in Canadian dollars. The balances above reflect the effect of related derivative contracts.

[5] IO debt is composed of Infrastructure Renewal Bonds. IO debt is not guaranteed by Ontario.

[6] Ontario holds its own debt mainly to reduce the cash flow required to service large maturities, typically in June. For 2024–25, there are currently no significant holdings for maturities.

[7] Effective April 1, 2022, Ontario adopted new PSAS standard on Financial Instruments on a prospective basis. Unamortized discounts and premiums are now amortized on an effective interest basis. These amounts are not forecasted for 2024–25.

[8] Other Net Financial (Assets)/Liabilities include cash and temporary investments, accounts receivable, loans receivable, advances and investments in Government Business Enterprises (GBEs) offset by accounts payable, accrued liabilities, deferred revenue and capital contributions, pensions and other employee future benefits, and other liabilities.

[9] Non-financial assets include the tangible capital assets of Ontario, including the broader public sector.

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Table 4.4
Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
($ Millions)
  2024–25 2025–26 2026–27
Total Debt 462,902 467,489 473,348
Other Net Financial (Assets)/Liabilities (34,864) (18,148) (10,467)
Broader Public Sector Net Debt 11,018 10,426 11,596
Net Debt 439,056 459,767 474,477
Non-Financial Assets (179,469) (195,567) (210,757)
Accumulated Deficit 259,587 264,200 263,720

Table 4.4 footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Chart Descriptions

Chart 4.1: Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing

($ Billions)
Year 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27
Planning Projection $41.8 $38.2 $37.7 $32.8
Slower Growth Scenario $41.8 $41.7 $43.5 $40.8
Faster Growth Scenario $41.8 $34.5 $31.1 $23.5

Sources: Ontario Financing Authority andOntario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 4.1

Chart 4.2: 2023–24 Borrowing

Long-term public borrowing of $41.8 billion has been completed for fiscal year 2023–24. This consisted of $30.4 billion (73 per cent) of Canadian dollar syndicated bonds, $2.6 billion (6 per cent) of Canadian Dollar Floating Rate Note, $3.0 billion (7 per cent) of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, $4.0 billion (10 per cent) of U.S. dollar bond, $1.8 billion (4 per cent) of Euro bond, and $0.03 billion (<1 per cent) of Australian dollar bond.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.2

Chart 4.3: Domestic and International Borrowing

Ontario’s total long-term borrowing completed in 2023–24 is $41.8 billion — $35.9 billion was borrowed in the Canadian dollar market and $5.9 billion was borrowed in foreign currencies.

Year Canadian Dollar
($ Billions)
Foreign Currencies
($ Billions)
Total
($ Billions)
2007–08 15.4 2.6 18.0
2008–09 19.0 9.7 28.7
2009–10 21.4 22.4 43.8
2010–11 23.5 16.4 39.9
2011–12 28.4 6.5 34.9
2012–13 26.4 10.2 36.6
2013–14 29.4 6.6 36.0
2014–15 31.4 8.4 39.9
2015–16 25.8 6.3 32.1
2016–17 19.9 7.1 27.0
2017–18 21.1 12.8 33.9
2018–19 30.6 9.0 39.6
2019–20 28.9 10.6 39.5
2020–21 39.1 20.7 59.8
2021–22 32.0 9.2 41.1
2022–23 28.4 3.7 32.1
2023–24 35.9 5.9 41.8

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.3

Chart 4.4: Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category

A total of $18.0 billion in Green Bond funding has or will provide funding for 29 projects. Nine of those projects are under the Clean Transportation* framework category and have received 82 per cent of the funding. Nineteen projects are under the Energy Efficiency* category and have received 16 per cent of the funding. One project is under the Climate Change Adaptation* category and has received two per cent of the funding.

*Data include bonds issued under the 2014 Green Bond Framework; categories have been updated to align with those in the new 2024 Ontario Sustainable Bond Framework.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.4

Chart 4.5: Ontario’s Green Bond Issues

Since 2014, Ontario has issued Green Bonds totalling $18.0 billion.

Year 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24
Green Bond Issues ($)

$0.5 billion

$0.75 billion

$0.8 billion

$1.0 billion

$0.95 billion

$1.25
billion

$2.75 billion

$4.5 billion

$2.5 billion

$3.0 billion

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.5

Chart 4.6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt

As of March 31, 2024, the effective interest rate (calculated as a weighted average) for fiscal year-end is forecast to be 3.4 per cent on Ontario’s total debt.

Year Effective Interest Rate (%)
1990–91 10.9
1991–92 10.7
1992–93 10.1
1993–94 9.5
1994–95 9.8
1995–96 9.4
1996–97 9.0
1997–98 9.0
1998–99 8.6
1999–00 8.4
2000–01 8.2
2001–02 7.6
2002–03 7.2
2003–04 6.7
2004–05 6.4
2005–06 6.1
2006–07 6.0
2007–08 5.8
2008–09 5.2
2009–10 4.6
2010–11 4.5
2011–12 4.4
2012–13 4.1
2013–14 3.9
2014–15 3.7
2015–16 3.6
2016–17 3.5
2017–18 3.6
2018–19 3.6
2019–20 3.4
2020–21 3.0
2021–22 3.0
2022–23 3.2
2023–24 3.4

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2022–2023) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.6

Chart 4.7: Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rate Forecast

Year 2024 Budget (%) 2023 Budget (%)
2023–24 4.20 4.60
2024–25 4.00 4.60
2025–26 4.00 4.65
2026–27 4.00

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.7

Chart 4.8: Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast

Year 2024 Budget ($ Billions) 2023 Budget ($ Billions)
2023–24 12.8 14.1
2024–25 13.9 14.4
2025–26 14.7 15.1
2026–27 15.2

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.8

Chart 4.9: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings

The average term of Ontario’s debt portfolio has been extended from 9.7 years in 2009–10 to 11.4 years in 2023–24. The weighted-average borrowing term for 2023–24 was 15.2 years as of February 29, 2024.

Year 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24
Weighted-Average Borrowing Term (Years) 8.1 12.8 13.0 12.4 13.6 14.1 14.2 13.9 12.1 12.9 14.5 12.0 14.5 15.0 15.2
Debt Portfolio Average Term (Years) 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.4

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.9

Chart 4.10: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels

Average unrestricted liquid reserve levels are forecast to be $46.9 billion as of March 31, 2024.

Year Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels ($ Billions)
2009–10 14.4
2010–11 19.4
2011–12 20.2
2012–13 23.3
2013–14 24.9
2014–15 23.6
2015–16 21.7
2016–17 21.1
2017–18 30.1
2018–19 32.7
2019–20 32.3
2020–21 46.2
2021–22 47.2
2022–23 36.2
2023–24 46.9

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.10

Making Progress on the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy:

The targets, which remain unchanged from the 2023 Budget, are:

  • Net debt-to-GDP to stay below 40.0 per cent.
  • Net debt-to-revenue to be below 200 per cent.
  • IOD-to-revenue to stay below 7.5 per cent.

Return to Image

Chart 4.11: Net Debt-to-GDP

Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast at 38.0 per cent in 2023–24.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 13.4
1991–92 17.1
1992–93 21.1
1993–94 26.6
1994–95 28.3
1995–96 30.1
1996–97 31.2
1997–98 30.5
1998–99 29.4
1999–00 32.1
2000–01 29.3
2001–02 28.2
2002–03 26.8
2003–04 27.5
2004–05 26.8
2005–06 27.8
2006–07 27.1
2007–08 26.6
2008–09 27.8
2009–10 32.3
2010–11 34.5
2011–12 36.6
2012–13 38.2
2013–14 39.7
2014–15 40.5
2015–16 40.3
2016–17 39.7
2017–18 39.2
2018–19 39.3
2019–20 39.5
2020–21 42.6
2021–22 39.9
2022–23 38.2
2023–24 38.0
2024–25 39.2 38.2 40.1
2025–26 39.5 37.6 41.1
2026–27 39.1 36.3 41.5

Note: See Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Return to Chart 4.11

Chart 4.12: Net Debt-to-Revenue

Ontario’s net debt-to-revenue ratio is forecast to be 203 per cent in 2023–24.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 78
1991–92 104
1992–93 126
1993–94 157
1994–95 168
1995–96 176
1996–97 187
1997–98 184
1998–99 182
1999–00 189
2000–01 183
2001–02 183
2002–03 177
2003–04 188
2004–05 170
2005–06 162
2006–07 153
2007–08 146
2008–09 164
2009–10 189
2010–11 192
2011–12 208
2012–13 216
2013–14 225
2014–15 234
2015–16 225
2016–17 223
2017–18 214
2018–19 220
2019–20 226
2020–21 226
2021–22 207
2022–23 208
2023–24 203
2024–25 214 208 219
2025–26 211 201 221
2026–27 209 193 224

Note: See Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios.

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2022–2023) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.12

Chart 4.13: Interest on Debt-to-Revenue

Ontario’s interest on debt-to-revenue ratio is forecast to be 6.3 per cent in 2023–24.

Year Planning Projection (%) Faster Growth Scenario (%) Slower Growth Scenario (%)
1990–91 7.7
1991–92 8.8
1992–93 10.8
1993–94 13.9
1994–95 14.5
1995–96 14.6
1996–97 14.8
1997–98 14.2
1998–99 14.3
1999–00 15.5
2000–01 15.0
2001–02 14.2
2002–03 12.9
2003–04 12.9
2004–05 11.1
2005–06 9.7
2006–07 8.9
2007–08 8.4
2008–09 8.7
2009–10 8.9
2010–11 8.8
2011–12 9.1
2012–13 9.0
2013–14 9.1
2014–15 8.9
2015–16 8.5
2016–17 8.3
2017–18 7.9
2018–19 8.1
2019–20 8.0
2020–21 7.5
2021–22 6.8
2022–23 6.4
2023–24 6.3
2024–25 6.8 6.6 6.9
2025–26 6.8 6.4 7.1
2026–27 6.7 6.2 7.2

Note: See Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for details on the Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios.

Sources: Public Accounts of Ontario (1990–1991 to 2022–2023) and Ontario Financing Authority.

Return to Chart 4.13

Updated: March 26, 2024
Published: March 26, 2024