2024 Ontario Budget: Building a Better Ontario

The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance

Table of Contents

Minister’s Foreword

• Delivering on Our Plan to Build Ontario
• Rebuilding Ontario’s Economy
• Building Infrastructure, Highways and Transit in Your Community
• Working for Workers
• Keeping Your Costs Down
• Better Services for You
• A Plan to Build Ontario

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

• Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
• Ontario’s Economic Outlook
  • Revisions to the Economic Outlook Since the 2023 Budget
• Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly
• Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
  • Revenue Outlook Over the Medium Term
  • Program Expense Outlook Over the Medium Term
  • Interest on Debt Outlook Over the Medium Term
  • Other Fiscal Plan Assumptions
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
• Borrowing and Debt Management
• A Capital Plan to Build a Better Ontario

Chapter 1: Building a Better Ontario

Section A: Building Ontario

• Rebuilding Ontario’s Economy
  • Strengthening Manufacturing and Attracting Investment
  • Leveraging Northern Ontario’s Natural Resources
  • Powering Ontario’s Growth
  • Supporting Innovation and Economic Growth Through Research and Technology
  • Keeping Costs Down for Ontario Businesses
• Building Infrastructure, Highways and Transit in Your Communities
  • Funding Infrastructure to Build More Homes
  • Building Stronger Communities for Future Generations
  • Building Highways
  • Building Transit

Section B: Working for You

• Working for Workers
  • Supporting Skills Development and Training
  • Helping Workers Plan for Retirement
• Keeping Costs Down
  • Putting Money Back in Your Pocket
  • Helping Ontario’s Most Vulnerable
  • Helping to Increase Housing Supply and Affordability
• Better Services for You
  • Making Health Care More Connected and Convenient
  • Building and Expanding Hospitals to Improve Care
  • Building Long-Term Care Homes
  • Getting Back to Basics in Education
  • Supporting Students with Special Education Needs
  • Building Schools and Child Care Spaces
  • Supporting Efficiency, Transparency and Accountability in the Postsecondary Education Sector
  • Reducing Red Tape
  • Strengthening Provincial Agencies
  • Expanding Protected Areas and Provincial Green Spaces
  • Protecting You and Your Family
  • Modernizing Financial Services and Capital Markets to Protect Consumers

Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

• Introduction
  • Revisions to the Outlook Since the 2023 Budget
• Recent Economic Performance
  • Real GDP Growth
  • Consumer Price Inflation
• Economic Outlook
  • Global Economic Environment
  • Financial Markets and Other External Factors
  • Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
  • Employment and Household Spending
  • Consumer Price Inflation
  • Housing Supply Progress
  • Housing Market
  • Risks to the Outlook
• Economic Outlook Scenarios
• Transparent Reporting on the Economy

Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook

• Introduction
• 2023–24 Interim Fiscal Performance
  • Revenue Update
  • Expense Update
  • Prudence in 2023–24
• Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
  • Key Changes Since the 2023 Budget
  • Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
  • Medium-Term Expense Outlook
  • Prudence Built into the Medium-Term Outlook
• Transparency and Risks
• Details of Ontario’s Finances

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Introduction
• Borrowing Program
• Sustainable Bond Program
• Cost of Debt
  • Term of Debt
• Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
• Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
• Consolidated Financial Tables

Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives

• Overview
• Simplifying the Ontario Computer Animation and Special Effects Tax Credit
• Extending the Temporary Gas Tax and Fuel Tax Rate Cuts
• Reviewing Ontario’s Tax System
• Property Assessment and Taxation Review
• Reviewing Alcohol Taxation and Fees
• Summary of Measures
• Technical Amendments

List of Tables

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

• Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
• Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions:
  2023 Budget Compared to the 2024 Budget
• Details of Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
• Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
• Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
• 2023–24 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
• Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
• Infrastructure Expenditures

Chapter 1: Building a Better Ontario

• Table 1.1 Examples of Recently Approved and Completed Projects Under the Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund
• Table 1.2 Recently Completed Highway Projects
• Table 1.3 School Projects Opening in the 2023–24 School Year
• Table 1.4 Continuing to Get Shovels in the Ground to Build More Schools

Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

• Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
• Table 2.2 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2023 Budget Compared to the 2024 Budget
• Table 2.3 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 2.4 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
• Table 2.5 External Factors
• Table 2.6 Ontario’s Economic Outlook
• Table 2.7 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
• Table 2.8 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
• Table 2.9 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
• Table 2.10 Ontario Economic Accounts Release Dates

Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook

• Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
• Table 3.2 2023–24 In-Year Fiscal Performance
• Table 3.3 Summary of 2023–24 Revenue Changes Since the 2023 Budget
• Table 3.4 Summary of 2023–24 Expense Changes Since the 2023 Budget
• Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
• Table 3.6 Selected Economic and Revenue Sensitivities
• Table 3.7 Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
• Table 3.8 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
• Table 3.9 Selected Expense Sensitivities
• Table 3.10 Total Revenue
• Table 3.11 Total Expense
• Table 3.12 Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 3.13 10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 4.1 2023–24 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
• Table 4.2 Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
• Table 4.3 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
• Table 4.4 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit

Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives

• Table A.1: Summary of Measures

List of Charts

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

• Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2023 Budget and 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
• Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios

Chapter 1: Building a Better Ontario

• Chart 1.1 Supporting Ontario Businesses
• Chart 1.2 Highway 413 Project Route
• Chart 1.3 Bradford Bypass Project Route
• Chart 1.4 Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
• Chart 1.5 Select Measures That Provide Relief to Families and Individuals
• Chart 1.6 Ontario’s Non-Resident Speculation Tax Timeline
• Chart 1.7 Ontario Parks Electrifying and Creating New Campsites

Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

• Chart 2.1 Ontario’s Strong Employment Growth
• Chart 2.2 Performance of Other Key Economic Indicators in 2023
• Chart 2.3 Ontario’s Real GDP Growth Moderated in 2023
• Chart 2.4 Ontario’s Consumer Price Inflation Moderating
• Chart 2.5 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Projected to Moderate
• Chart 2.6 Global Real GDP Growth Projections
• Chart 2.7 Global Supply Chain Pressures Have Eased
• Chart 2.8 Bank of Canada Raised Policy Interest Rate Significantly
• Chart 2.9 Ontario Unemployment Rate to Remain Below Historical Average
• Chart 2.10 Canadian Households Paying More Interest
• Chart 2.11 Inflation Projected to Ease
• Chart 2.12 Making Progress on Housing Supply
• Chart 2.13 Housing Affordability Impacted by Higher Mortgage Costs
• Chart 2.14 Housing Market Projected to Rebound
• Chart 2.15 Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts

Chapter 3: Continuing to Invest in the Plan to Build: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook

• Chart 3.1 Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2023 Budget and 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
• Chart 3.2 Sources of Revenue Changes Since the 2023 Budget
• Chart 3.3 Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
• Chart 3.4 Composition of Total Revenue, 2024–25
• Chart 3.5 Composition of Total Expense, 2024–25

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 4.1 Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
• Chart 4.2 2023–24 Borrowing
• Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
• Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
• Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
• Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
• Chart 4.7 Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rate Forecast
• Chart 4.8 Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast
• Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
• Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
• Chart 4.11 Net Debt-to-GDP
• Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-Revenue
• Chart 4.13 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue