The Honourable Victor Fedeli, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Foreword
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry
- Ontario’s Fiscal Outlook
- Inflated Non-Recurring Revenues
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Debt
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Plan for the People
Section A: Restoring Trust, Transparency and Accountability
- Introduction
- Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry
- The Current Fiscal Environment
- A New Direction
- Line-by-Line Review of Government Spending
- Transparency in Government Accounting
- Ontario Strengthening Relationship with Municipalities
- Improving Legislative Accountability
- Fixing the Hydro Mess
Section B: Making Ontario Open for Business
- Introduction
- Cancelling the Cap-and-Trade Carbon Tax
- Open for Business
- Creating and Protecting Jobs
- Energy
- Supporting Pipeline Construction
- Natural Gas
- Broadband Expansion
- Minister’s Agriculture Task Force
- Labour Market Improvements for Business
- Creating Efficiencies in the Pension Sector
- Building More Efficient Regulators
- Supporting the North
Section C: Respecting Consumers and Families
- Introduction
- The Low-Income Individuals and Families Tax (LIFT) Credit
- Environment and Energy
- Health Care Transformation
- Celebrating Special Hockey Day
- Transit and Transportation
- Housing Supply Action Plan
- Building More Efficient Regulators
- Education
- Social Assistance
- Pensions
- Secure Communities and Safer Streets
- Honouring Ontario’s Veterans
- Increasing Convenience for the People
- Cannabis Retail Implementation
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Introduction
- Ontario’s Recent Economic Performance
- Challenges
- Outlook
- Risks to Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Current Fiscal Outlook
- 2018–19 In-Year Revenue Changes
- 2018–19 In-Year Expense Changes
- Fiscal Prudence
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
Chapter 5: Pre-Budget Consultations
Annex: Details of Tax Measures
- Overview
- The Low-Income Individuals and Families Tax (LIFT) Credit
- Employer Health Tax
- Electricity Distribution Sector — Extension of Time-Limited Tax Relief
- Property Tax Exemption for Royal Canadian Legion
- 2018 Budget Announcements Not Being Implemented
- Technical Amendments
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry’s Adjustments to the 2018 Budget Surplus/(Deficit) Projection for 2018–19
- Fiscal Summary
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- 2018–19 Borrowing Program
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.3 Outlook for External Factors
- Table 2.4 Impacts of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.5 The Ontario Economy, 2016 to 2021
- Table 2.6 Changes in Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2018 Budget Compared with 2018 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (FES)
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 Independent Financial Commission of Inquiry’s Adjustments to the 2018 Budget Surplus/(Deficit) Projection for 2018–19
- Table 3.3 2018–19 In-Year Revenue Changes
- Table 3.4 2018–19 In-Year Expense Changes
- Table 3.5 Revenue
- Table 3.6 Total Expense
- Table 3.7 2018–19 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.8 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Plan for the People
- Chart 1.1 The Impact of Non-Recurring Revenues as a Share of Total Revenues
- Chart 1.2 Evolution of the 2018–19 Outlook
- Chart 1.3 Returning Money to Hardworking Business Owners
- Chart 1.4 Combined Corporate Income Tax Rates — Ontario vs. Great Lake States
- Chart 1.5 Marginal Effective Tax Rates (METRs) — Ontario and United States
- Chart 1.6 Tax Relief for LIFT Credit Recipients
- Chart 1.7 Jenny and George
- Chart 1.8 New Residential Construction Less Responsive to Changing Demand
- Chart 1.9 Low Rental Vacancy Rates
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Ontario Growth Outpaced Canada in Two of the Past 15 Years
- Chart 2.2 Employment Growth by Region, 2003 to 2017
- Chart 2.3 GDP Growth Has Varied by Sector, 2003 to 2017
- Chart 2.4 Ontario Real Business Investment
- Chart 2.5 Underutilized Labour in Ontario
- Chart 2.6 Industrial Capacity Utilization
- Chart 2.7 Corporate Tax Competitiveness
- Chart 2.8 Ontario Household Debt-to-Income Ratio
- Chart 2.9 Growth Rate of Working-Age Population (15 to 64)
- Chart 2.10 Ontario Business R&D Intensity
- Chart 2.11 World and U.S. GDP Growth
- Chart 2.12 Interest Rates Rising but Still Low
- Chart 2.13 Growth Projected to Moderate
- Chart 2.14 Strong Business Investment Growth Projected
- Chart 2.15 United States Is Ontario’s Largest Trading Partner, 2017
- Chart 2.16 Housing Costs Elevated Ontario CPI Inflation
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 2018–19 Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.4 Net Debt Per Capita
- Chart 4.5 Provincial Net Debt Per Capita 2017–18
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted-Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
Updated: November 15, 2018
Published: November 15, 2018