The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- Ontario’s Capital Plan
Chapter 1: Build Ontario
Section A: Protecting Our Progress
- Introduction
- Protecting People’s Health
- Protecting Seniors
- Protecting People
- Building on Mental Health and Addictions Investments
- Providing Additional Support to Retirement Homes
- Keeping Schools Safe
- Protecting the Most Vulnerable Populations from COVID‑19
- Supporting People through the Social Services Relief Fund
- Protecting People from Systemic Racism and Hate
- Investigating Indian Residential School Burial Sites
- Protecting the Environment for Future Generations
Section B: Building Ontario
- Introduction
- Building Transit and Transportation
- Building Highway 413
- Building the Bradford Bypass
- Building Highways
- Building Subways
- Building Transit for Hamilton
- Funding New Streetcars for the Toronto Transit Commission
- Building Transit-Oriented Communities
- Building Two-Way All-Day GO Transit
- Building the Kitchener GO Rail Expansion
- Expanding GO Train Service to London
- Improving Connections to Northern Ontario
- Building the Ring of Fire
- Building Community Infrastructure
- Building Better Long-Term Care Beds Faster
- Building New Hospital Infrastructure
- Building a Revitalized Ontario Place
- Building Schools and Child Care Spaces
- Building More Homes
- Building High-Speed Internet
- Building Stronger Supply Chains
- Transforming the Government’s Approach to Real Estate
Section C: Working for Workers
- Introduction
- Working for Workers
- Working for Skilled Workers
- Working for Economic Growth
- Lowering Employer Costs and Supporting Growth
- Supporting Entrepreneurship and Growth
- Creating a Single Window for Business
- Helping Small Businesses Go Digital
- Working for Tourism, Hospitality, Culture and Sports Workers
- Improving Administration of the Election Finances Act
- Investing in Research and Innovation
- Modernizing Financial Services
- Modernizing Ontario’s Capital Markets to Attract Investment and Create Jobs
- Working with the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario
- Working for Farmers
- Working for Manufacturing and Automotive Sector Workers
- Working for Workers in Every Region
- Working for Northern Ontario
- Encouraging Economic Growth in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario
- Working with Indigenous Partners
- Working for Ontario’s Francophone Community
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Key Changes in 2021–22 Since the 2021 Budget
- Expense
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Progress on the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Overview
- Introducing the Ontario Staycation Tax Credit
- Extending the Ontario Jobs Training Tax Credit
- Extending the Ontario Seniors’ Home Safety Tax Credit
- Fighting Financial Crimes and Tax Evasion
- Property Tax Stability and Competitiveness
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
A Plan Informed by the People
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan – Details
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- 2021–22 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.3 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
- Table 2.4 External Factors
- Table 2.5 The Ontario Economy, 2020 to 2024
- Table 2.6 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.7 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2021 Budget Compared with 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Table 2.8 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.9 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 2021–22 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Key Changes to 2021–22 Revenue Projections
- Table 3.4 Key Changes to 2021–22 Total Expense Projections
- Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6 Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.7 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.8 Extraordinary Contingencies and COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Table 3.9 Revenue
- Table 3.10 Total Expense
- Table 3.11 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.12 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Range of Ontario Deficit Outlooks
- Net Debt-to-GDP
- Range of Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Chapter 1: Build Ontario
- Chart 1.1 Building Up the Health Sector Workforce
- Chart 1.2 A Fair Federal Share versus the Status Quo
- Chart 1.3 Examples of Highway Expansion and Rehabilitation Projects
- Chart 1.4 Building Transit in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area
- Chart 1.5 Examples of Local Community Infrastructure Projects
- Chart 1.6 Building Long-Term Care Beds
- Chart 1.7 Building Health Care
- Chart 1.8 Supporting Workers with Their Training Expenses
- Chart 1.9 Supporting Ontario Tourism
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 2021 Q2 GDP Decline Follows Rebounds in Previous Three Quarters
- Chart 2.2 Ontario Labour Market
- Chart 2.3 Rebound in Key Economic Indicators
- Chart 2.4 Stronger Nominal GDP Growth Projected in 2021
- Chart 2.5 Revised GDP Growth Projections for 2021
- Chart 2.6 10-Year Canadian Bond Rate Projections
- Chart 2.7 Continued Job Gains Projected
- Chart 2.8 Private-Sector Forecasters Project Inflation to Moderate
- Chart 2.9 Ontario Home Resale Market
- Chart 2.10 Nominal GDP Forecast Comparison
- Chart 2.11 Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 2021 Budget Deficit Outlook Compared to Current Outlook
- Chart 3.2 Range of Ontario Deficit Outlooks
- Chart 3.3 Program Expense Growth Excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Chart 3.4 Composition of Revenue, 2021–22
- Chart 3.5 Composition of Total Expense, 2021–22
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Range of Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 2021–22 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8 Interest on Debt Expense Forecast
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.13 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
Updated: November 4, 2021
Published: November 4, 2021