The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Alternative Economic Scenarios and Fiscal Outlooks
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- Ontario’s Capital Plan
- Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario
Section A: Building Ontario
- Introduction
- Building Ontario’s Economy for Today and Tomorrow
- Building Highways, Transit and Infrastructure Projects
Section B: Working for You
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- 2022–23 Interim Fiscal Performance
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- New Accounting Standards
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
- Consolidated Financial Tables
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Details of Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
- 2022–23 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario
- Table 1.1 Recently Completed Highway Projects
- Table 1.2 Examples of School Projects Under Construction and Recently Opened
- Table 1.3 Examples of Recently Approved and Completed ICIP Projects
- Table 1.4 Examples of Recently Approved and Completed OCIF Projects
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2022 Budget Compared to the 2023 Budget
- Table 2.3 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.4 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
- Table 2.5 External Factors
- Table 2.6 Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.7 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.8 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.9 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.10 Ontario Economic Accounts Release Dates
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 2022–23 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Summary of 2022–23 Revenue Changes Since the 2022 Budget
- Table 3.4 Summary of 2022–23 Expense Changes Since the 2022 Budget
- Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6 Selected Economic and Revenue Sensitivities
- Table 3.7 Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.8 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.9 Selected Expense Sensitivities
- Table 3.10 Total Revenue
- Table 3.11 Total Expense
- Table 3.12 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.13 10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 2022–23 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2 Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
- Table 4.3 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- Table 4.4 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to 2022 Budget
- Program Expense Growth
- Ontario Medium-Term Outlook Based on Alternative Scenarios
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario
- Chart 1.1 Annual Ontario Corporate Income Tax Savings from Extending the Proposed Small Business Limit Phase-Out
- Chart 1.2 Highway 413 Project Route
- Chart 1.3 Bradford Bypass Project Route
- Chart 1.4 Widening Highway 401 from Mississauga to Milton
- Chart 1.5 Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
- Chart 1.6 Ontario Is Investing Every Dollar of New Federal Funding into Care and Significantly More
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Ontario’s Economy Continued To Grow
- Chart 2.2 Manufacturing Sales Growth Led Key Economic Indicators in 2022
- Chart 2.3 Strong Employment Recovery in Ontario
- Chart 2.4 Ontario’s Consumer Price Inflation
- Chart 2.5 Ontario GDP Growth Projected To Moderate
- Chart 2.6 Global Real GDP Growth Projections
- Chart 2.7 Bank of Canada Raised Policy Interest Rate Significantly
- Chart 2.8 Changing CPI Inflation Expectations
- Chart 2.9 Ontario Housing Market Outlook Slightly Improved Since Last Fall
- Chart 2.10 Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to 2022 Budget
- Chart 3.2 Ontario Medium-Term Outlook Based on Alternative Scenarios
- Chart 3.3 Program Expense Growth
- Chart 3.4 Additional Federal Health Funding to Ontario
- Chart 3.5 Composition of Total Revenue, 2023–24
- Chart 3.6 Composition of Total Expense, 2023–24
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 2022–23 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8 Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.13 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
Updated: March 23, 2023
Published: March 23, 2023