The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Introduction and Foreword
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- A Capital Plan for a Stronger Ontario
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario Together
Section A: Building Ontario
- Introduction
- Building Ontario’s Economy for Today and Tomorrow
- Building Highways, Transit and Infrastructure
Section B: Working for You
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Introduction
- Recent Economic Performance
- Economic Outlook
- Global Economic Environment
- Financial Markets and Other External Factors
- Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Risks to the Outlook
- Economic Outlook Scenarios
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Key Changes in 2023–24 Since the 2023 Budget
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Progress on the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Overview
- Enhancing the Ontario Harmonized Sales Tax Rebate for Purpose-Built Rental Housing
- Extending the Temporary Gas Tax and Fuel Tax Cuts
- Entering into a Coordinated Vaping Product Taxation Agreement
- Enhancing the Ontario Focused Flow-Through Share Tax Credit
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
Consultations on Building a Strong Ontario Together
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2023 Budget Compared to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan — Details
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
- 2023–24 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario Together
- Table 1.1 Recently Completed Highway Projects
- Table 1.2 2023–24 Indigenous Transportation Initiatives
- Table 1.3 School Projects Opening for the 2023–24 School Year
- Table 1.4 Continuing To Get Shovels in the Ground To Build More Schools
- Table 1.5 Supporting Communities Through Projects Under the Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2023 Budget Compared to the 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Table 2.3 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.4 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
- Table 2.5 External Factors
- Table 2.6 Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.7 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.8 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.9 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 2023–24 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Key Changes to 2023–24 Revenue Projections
- Table 3.4 Key Changes to 2023–24 Total Expense Projections
- Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6 Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.7 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.8 Revenue
- Table 3.9 Total Expense
- Table 3.10 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.11 10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 2023–24 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2 Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
- Net Debt-to-GDP
- Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Chapter 1: Building a Strong Ontario Together
- Chart 1.1 Attracting More than $26 billion in Automotive, Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain and Clean Steel Investments to Ontario
- Chart 1.2 Record-Breaking Population Growth Continues in Ontario
- Chart 1.3 Infrastructure Banks Launched by Other Jurisdictions
- Chart 1.4 Highway 413 Project Route
- Chart 1.5 Bradford Bypass Project Route
- Chart 1.6 Highway Projects Underway in Southwestern Ontario
- Chart 1.7 Current Status of Highway 11/17 Four Lane Expansion Project — Thunder Bay to Nipigon
- Chart 1.8 Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Ontario Real GDP Outperforms Canada in the First Half of 2023
- Chart 2.2 Ontario Unemployment Rate Remains Low
- Chart 2.3 Ontario Consumer Price Inflation Down but Remains Elevated
- Chart 2.4 Ontario GDP Growth Projected to Normalize
- Chart 2.5 Global Real GDP Growth Projections
- Chart 2.6 World Trade Volumes Slowing
- Chart 2.7 Short-Term Interest Rate Projections Move Higher
- Chart 2.8 Ontario Real GDP and Employment Growth to Moderate
- Chart 2.9 Ontario Household Spending Growth Projected to Continue
- Chart 2.10 Inflation Projected to Ease, but Risks Remain
- Chart 2.11 Consumer Price Index Inflation Projection Revised Higher
- Chart 2.12 Recent Developments in the Ontario Housing Market
- Chart 2.13 Ontario Housing Market Expected to Rebound in 2024 and 2025
- Chart 2.14 Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Current Surplus/(Deficit) Outlook Compared to 2023 Budget
- Chart 3.2 Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
- Chart 3.3 Program Expense
- Chart 3.4 Composition of Revenue, 2023–24
- Chart 3.5 Composition of Total Expense, 2023–24
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 2023–24 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8 Interest on Debt Expense Lower than 2023 Budget Forecast
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.13 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
Updated: November 2, 2023
Published: November 2, 2023