The Honourable Rod Phillips, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Introduction
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- Ontario’s Capital Plan
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protect, Support, Recover
Section A: Protect — Urgent COVID‑19 Response
- Introduction
- Ontario’s Immediate COVID‑19 Health Response
- Protecting People’s Health during the Second Wave
- 1. Maintaining Strong Public Health Measures, including Continued Expansion of Testing and Case and Contact Management
- 2. Implementing the Largest Flu Immunization Campaign in Ontario's History
- 3. Identifying, Managing and Preventing COVID‑19 Outbreaks
- 4. Accelerating Efforts to Reduce Surgical Backlogs
- 5. Preparing for Surges in COVID‑19 Cases
- 6. Recruiting, Retaining, Training and Supporting Health Care Workers
- Protecting Our Loved Ones in Long-Term Care Homes
- Supporting People Suffering from Mental Health and Addictions Challenges
- Continuing the Commitment to a Strong Health Care System
- Protecting Workplaces
- Building an Emergency Volunteer Unit
Section B: Support — Support for People and Jobs
- Introduction
- Supporting People
- Helping Parents with COVID‑19 Costs
- Reopening Schools Safely
- Helping Elementary Students Learn Online
- Creating a Digital Learning Portal
- Building and Renovating Schools and Child Care Spaces
- Helping University and College Students Navigate COVID‑19
- Helping Seniors Make Their Homes Safer
- Delivering Meals, Medicine and Other Essentials to Vulnerable People
- Expanding the Seniors Active Living Centre Program
- Launching the Inclusive Community Grants Program
- Doubling Investment in the Black Youth Action Plan
- Investing in the Special Services at Home Program
- Supporting Agricultural and Horticultural Societies
- Ontario’s Community Building Fund
- Supporting Local Festivals and Events
- Assisting Ontario’s Arts Institutions
- Supporting Sports and Recreation
- Supporting Francophone Non-Profits
- Supporting People Facing a Mental Health Crisis
- Supporting Survivors of Domestic Violence and Human Trafficking
- Providing Electricity Cost Relief to Ontario Families
- Supporting Jobs
- Supporting Employers in COVID‑19 Hotspots
- Supporting Main Street Businesses
- Supporting Small Businesses with Rent
- Supporting Consumers, Hospitality Businesses and Alcohol Producers
- Ontario Together: Helping Businesses Retool to Fight against COVID‑19
- Protecting Workers, Volunteers, and Organizations Who Make Honest Efforts to Follow COVID‑19 Public Health Guidelines
- Improving the Business Climate for Indigenous Communities and Northern Municipalities
- Supporting Indigenous-Owned Businesses during COVID‑19
- Helping Northern Businesses
- Supporting the Commercial Fishing Industry
- Supporting Municipal Partners
Section C: Recover — Creating the Conditions for Growth
- Introduction
- A Comprehensive Plan to Reduce Job-Killing Electricity Prices
- Reducing Taxes on Jobs
- Retraining and Skilled Trades
- COVID‑19 Recovery Assistance Skills Plan
- Ontario’s Skilled Trades Strategy
- Supporting Workers to Acquire In-Demand Skills
- Redesigning Second Career
- Giving Workers New Pathways to Good Jobs
- Enhancing Canada-Ontario Workforce Development Agreements
- Building Pathways to Careers in Corrections
- Including Women in Ontario’s Economic Recovery
- Reducing Unnecessary Red Tape
- Supporting Ontario’s Sectors
- Tourism
- Modernizing Ontario’s Financial Services Sector
- Generating, Protecting and Commercializing Intellectual Property
- Invest Ontario
- Promoting Ontario Made Products
- Supporting Growth Through Interprovincial Trade
- Growing the Agri-Food Sector
- Helping Ontario’s Forestry Sector Reach its Full Potential
- Supporting Small Modular Reactors in Ontario
- Supporting the Environment, Parks and Conservation
- Building Infrastructure
- Modernizing Government
- Moving Ontario Onwards
- Consulting on Unregulated Tobacco
- Establishing a Market for Internet Gaming (iGaming) in Ontario
- Creating Opportunities through the Value Creation Task Force
- Supporting Sustainable Collective Bargaining Outcomes in the Public Sector
- Supporting the Sustainability and Affordability of Public-Sector Pension Plans
Chapter 2: Recent Economic Performance and Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Key 2020–21 Changes
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Net Debt-to-GDP
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Consolidated Financial Tables
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Introduction
- Reducing the Employer Health Tax
- Helping Seniors Stay Safely in Their Homes
- Maintaining Cultural Media Tax Credit Eligibility
- Supporting Research and Development
- Reducing Property Taxes for Employers
- Enabling Property Tax Relief for Small Businesses
- Reviewing Ontario’s Property Assessment and Taxation System
- Cancelling the Scheduled Wine Tax Increase and Freezing Beer Tax Rates
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
2021 Budget Consultations
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Fiscal Updates by Jurisdiction
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Extraordinary Contingencies and Time-Limited Pandemic Response
- 2020–21 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protect, Support, Recover
Chapter 2: Recent Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.3 External Factors
- Table 2.4 The Ontario Economy, 2019 to 2023
- Table 2.5 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.6 Ontario’s Real GDP Growth Scenarios
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 2020–21 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Key Changes to 2020–21 Revenue Projections
- Table 3.4 Key Changes to 2020–21 Total Expense Projections
- Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6 Summary of Medium-Term Cannabis-Related Revenue
- Table 3.7 Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
- Table 3.8 Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.9 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.10 Extraordinary Contingencies and Time-Limited Pandemic Response
- Table 3.11 Selected Expense Sensitivities
- Table 3.12 Revenue
- Table 3.13 Total Expense
- Table 3.14 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.15 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 2020–21 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2 Evolution of Ontario Borrowing Rate Assumptions
- Table 4.3 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- Table 4.4 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Table A.1 Summary of Proposed Cultural Media Tax Credit Amendments
- Table A.2 Business Education Tax Cuts in 2021
- Table A.3 Summary of Measures
List of Charts
Introduction
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Employment Change Compared to Previous Major Downturns
- Unprecedented Private-Sector Forecast Uncertainty
- Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts
- Range of Ontario Deficit Outlook Scenarios
- Total Health Sector and COVID‑19 Response Funding
- Net Debt-to-GDP
- Range of Long-Term Borrowing Outlook Scenarios
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protect, Support, Recover
- Chart 1.1 Examples of Long-Term Care Development Projects Underway
- Chart 1.2 Examples of Health Facility Projects under Construction or in Planning
- Chart 1.3 Canada Health Transfer National Entitlement: A Fair Federal Share vs. the Status Quo
- Chart 1.4 Examples of School Projects Recently Approved
- Chart 1.5 Illustrative Relief for a Restaurant
- Chart 1.6 Electricity Prices for Commercial and Industrial Employers
- Chart 1.7 Lowering Electricity Bills – Illustrative Industrial Employer
- Chart 1.8 Lowering Electricity Bills – Illustrative Commercial Employer
- Chart 1.9 Providing Electricity Cost Savings for Industrial and Commercial Employers
- Chart 1.10 Improving Competitiveness: Average Electricity Pricing for Commercial and Industrial Employers
- Chart 1.11 Costs Shiftid to the Province are Forecast to Decline under the Government’s Plan
- Chart 1.12 Illustrative Savings for a Commercial Property in London
- Chart 1.13 Illustrative Savings for an Industrial Property in Windsor
- Chart 1.14 Illustrative Property Tax Savings for a Bakery Shop in Toronto
- Chart 1.15 Illustrative Tax Relief Before and After the Increase to the Employer Health Tax Exemption from $490,000 to $1 Million
- Chart 1.16 Examples of Highway Expansion Projects in Planning or Underway
- Chart 1.17 Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program – Public Transit Stream: Supporting Municipal Transit across the Province
Chapter 2: Recent Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Second Quarter 2020 Real GDP Declines are Widespread
- Chart 2.2 Ontario’s Unemployment Rate and Major Downturns
- Chart 2.3 Key Economic Indicators Showing Signs of Recovery
- Chart 2.4 Confidence Rebounding
- Chart 2.5 Unprecedented Private-Sector Forecast Uncertainty
- Chart 2.6 10-Year Canadian Bond Rate Projections
- Chart 2.7 Real GDP Forecast Comparison
- Chart 2.8 Unprecedented Private-Sector Forecast In-Year Change
- Chart 2.9 Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Range of Ontario Deficit Outlook Scenarios
- Chart 3.2 Total Health Sector and COVID‑19 Response Funding
- Chart 3.3 Composition of Revenue, 2020–21
- Chart 3.4 Composition of Total Expense, 2020–21
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Range of Long-Term Borrowing Outlook Scenarios
- Chart 4.2 2020–21 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.7 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted-Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.8 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue Ratio
- Chart 4.11 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
Updated: November 5, 2020
Published: November 5, 2020