The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
- Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
- The Right Plan in the Face of New Challenges
- Ontario’s Plan to Build
- Building Ontario’s Economy Together
- Working for Workers
- Keeping Costs Down
- Respecting Taxpayer Dollars, Today and in the Future
- Together, Let’s Build Ontario
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook — A Plan to Build in Uncertain Times
- A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- A Capital Plan for a Stronger Ontario
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Plan to Build: A Progress Update
Section A: Building Ontario Progress Report
- Introduction
- Building Ontario’s Economy — Progress Report
- Building Ontario’s Workforce — Progress Report
- Building Infrastructure — Progress Report
- Keeping Costs Down — Progress Report
Section B: Enhancing Ontario’s Plan to Build
- Building Ontario’s Economy
- Working for Workers
- Introduction
- Launching Skilled Trades Ontario
- Encouraging More Students to Enter the Trades
- Improving Assistance for People on the Ontario Disability Support Program
- Enhancing the Skills Development Fund to Address Challenges to Hiring, Training or Retraining Workers
- Implementing a Target Benefit Pension Plan Framework
- Keeping Costs Down
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Introduction
- Recent Economic Performance
- Economic Outlook
- Global Economic Environment
- Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Risks to the Outlook
- Economic Outlook Scenarios
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction — Ontario’s Plan to Eliminate Deficits and Invest in the Future
- Key Changes in 2022–23 Since the 2022 Budget
- Expense
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Progress on the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Overview
- Implementing 2022 Budget Tax Measures
- Supporting Small Business Growth
- Allowing Immediate Expensing to Encourage Business Investment
- Modernizing Ontario’s Cultural Media Tax Credits
- Extending the Temporary Gas Tax and Fuel Tax Cuts
- Increasing the Non-Resident Speculation Tax Rate
- Addressing Unregulated Tobacco
- Summary of Tax Measures
Consultations on Ontario’s Plan to Build
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2022 Budget Compared to the 2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan — Details
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
- 2022–23 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Plan to Build: A Progress Update
- Table 1.1: Recently Completed Highway Projects
- Table 1.2: Long-Term Care Projects Highlights
- Table 1.3: Examples of School Projects Underway
- Table 1.4: Examples of Recently Approved and Completed Projects Under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1: Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2022 Budget Compared to the 2022 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
- Table 2.3: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.4: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
- Table 2.5: External Factors
- Table 2.6: Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.7: Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.8: Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.9: Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1: Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2: 2022–23 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3: Key Changes to 2022–23 Revenue Projections
- Table 3.4: Key Changes to 2022–23 Total Expense Projections
- Table 3.5: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6: Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.7: Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.8: Revenue
- Table 3.9: Total Expense
- Table 3.10: Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.11: 10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1: 2022–23 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2: Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
- Net Debt-to GDP
- Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Plan to Build: A Progress Update
- Chart 1.1: Supporting Ontario Businesses
- Chart 1.2: Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
- Chart 1.3: Annual Ontario Tax Savings from Extending the Proposed Small Business Limit Phase-Out
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1: Quarterly Real GDP Growth in 2022
- Chart 2.2: Ontario’s Unemployment Rate Remains Low
- Chart 2.3: Consumer Price Inflation Elevated Across Jurisdictions
- Chart 2.4: Revised GDP Growth Projections for 2022
- Chart 2.5: 10-Year Canadian Bond Rate Projections
- Chart 2.6: Job Increases Projected to Moderate After Record Gains
- Chart 2.7: Inflation Expected to Moderate but Uncertainty Persists
- Chart 2.8: Ontario Home Resale Market
- Chart 2.9: Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: A Strong Foundation for the Next Generation: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1: Current Deficit Outlook Compared to 2022 Budget
- Chart 3.2: Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
- Chart 3.3: Program Expense Growth Excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Chart 3.4: Composition of Revenue, 2022–23
- Chart 3.5: Composition of Total Expense, 2022–23
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1: Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2: 2022–23 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3: Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4: Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5: Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7: Comparison of Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8: Comparison of Interest on Debt Expense Forecast
- Chart 4.9: Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10: Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11: Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.12: Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.13: Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.14: Debt Maturities-to-Net Debt
Updated: November 14, 2022
Published: November 14, 2022