The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance and President of the Treasury Board
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
- Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
- Protecting People’s Health
- Protecting Our Economy
- An Update on the Economic and Fiscal Situation
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly
- Alternative Economic Scenarios and Recovery Plans
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- Ontario’s Capital Plan
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protecting People’s Health and Our Economy
Section A: Protecting People’s Health
- Introduction
- Defeating COVID‑19
- Fixing Long-Term Care
- Caring for People
- Making Record Investments in Hospitals
- Addressing the Financial Stability of Public Hospitals
- Building, Expanding and Improving Hospitals
- Ensuring Patients Can Access Vital Blood Products
- Supporting Specialized Cancer Treatment Services
- Preventing and Controlling Infections
- Serving Children with Special Needs
- Making Record Investments to Address Mental Health and Addictions Challenges
- Building an Innovative and Responsive Health Care System
- Supporting Groundbreaking Research in Health Care
- Protecting Workers
- Keeping Schools Safe
- Increasing Access to Safe and Affordable Housing
- Supporting Vulnerable People
- Building Safer Communities
Section B: Protecting Our Economy
- Introduction
- Supporting Workers and Families
- Supporting Jobs
- Helping Small Businesses Survive COVID‑19
- Ontario’s Support Strategy for Tourism, Hospitality, Culture and Sports
- Attracting Business Investment through Invest Ontario
- Building Ontario’s Competitive Advantage
- Enhancing the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
- Making Key Infrastructure Investments
- Positioning Key Sectors for Growth
- Generating, Protecting and Commercializing Intellectual Property
- Supporting Jobs and Growth in Northern Ontario
- Protecting Ontario’s Environment
- Advancing Ontario’s Clean Energy Advantage
- Leading the Way in the Canadian Green Bond Market
- Increasing the Use of Environment, Social and Corporate Governance Disclosure Requirements
- Leading in Electric Vehicle Development
- Creating the Ontario Vehicle Innovation Network
- Developing Ontario’s First-Ever Critical Minerals Strategy
- Growing the Greenbelt
- Protecting Communities from Flooding
- Supporting Communities
- Doubling the Indigenous Community Capital Grants Program
- Supporting Ontario’s Francophone Communities
- Addressing the Unique Challenges of COVID‑19 on Women
- Helping Faith-Based and Cultural Organizations Reopen
- Delivering Historic Funding for All Municipalities
- Working with Municipalities to Review the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund
- Providing Property Tax Stability
- Building a Modern Government
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- 2020–21 Interim Fiscal Performance
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Green Bond Program
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
- Consolidated Financial Tables
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Enhancing the CARE Tax Credit for 2021
- Introducing the Temporary Ontario Jobs Training Tax Credit
- Enhancing the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
- Making Progress on Addressing Unregulated Tobacco
- Modernizing Anti-Avoidance Rules
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan – Details
- Ontario’s Recovery Plan – Details
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- 2020–21 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protecting People’s Health and Our Economy
- Table 1.1 Ontario’s Three-Phase Vaccine Distribution Plan
- Table 1.2 Communities Participating in the Paramedicine for Long-Term Care Program
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.3 External Factors
- Table 2.4 The Ontario Economy, 2019 to 2024
- Table 2.5 Impact of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.6 Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2020 Budget Compared with 2021 Budget
- Table 2.7 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.8 Ontario Economic Accounts Release Dates
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Fiscal Summary
- Table 3.2 2020–21 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Summary of Revenue Changes since the 2020 Budget
- Table 3.4 Summary of Expense Changes since the 2020 Budget
- Table 3.5 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.6 Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
- Table 3.7 Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- Table 3.8 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.9 Extraordinary Contingencies and COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Table 3.10 Selected Expense Sensitivities
- Table 3.11 Revenue
- Table 3.12 Total Expense
- Table 3.13 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.14 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 2020–21 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.2 Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- Table 4.3 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Minister’s Foreword and Introduction
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Program Expense Growth excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts
- Range of Ontario Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios
- Range of Ontario Recovery Plan Scenarios
- Range of Medium-Term Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Chapter 1: Ontario’s Action Plan: Protecting People’s Health and Our Economy
- Chart 1.1 COVID‑19 Digital Rapid Response
- Chart 1.2 Examples of Long-Term Care Development Projects Underway
- Chart 1.3 Investments to Achieve an Average of 4 Hours of Direct Care in Long-Term Care
- Chart 1.4 Examples of Health Projects under Construction or in Planning
- Chart 1.5 A Fair Federal Share versus the Status Quo
- Chart 1.6 Additional Child Care Support in 2021
- Chart 1.7 Additional Child Care Support for Families in 2021
- Chart 1.8 Ontario Jobs Training Tax Credit
- Chart 1.9 Examples of School Projects Underway
- Chart 1.10 Illustrative Relief for a Small Retail Store
- Chart 1.11 Illustrative Relief for a Restaurant
- Chart 1.12 Providing Support to Ontario Job Creators
- Chart 1.13 Northern Ontario: Regions Eligible for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
- Chart 1.14 Southern Ontario: Regions Eligible for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit
- Chart 1.15 Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit on a $250,000 Investment
- Chart 1.16 Total Planned New Broadband Connections Supported by Provincial Funding by Year
- Chart 1.17 Estimated Benefits of New Transit Investments in Toronto
- Chart 1.18 Examples of ICIP Projects Recently Approved
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Major Economies Remain below Pre-Pandemic Levels
- Chart 2.2 Rebound in Q3 Follows Large Declines in Q1 and Q2
- Chart 2.3 Ontario Labour Market
- Chart 2.4 Employment Impacts Vary across Industries
- Chart 2.5 Uneven Impact on the Labour Market
- Chart 2.6 Higher Household Net Savings
- Chart 2.7 Rebound in Key Economic Indicators
- Chart 2.8 High Range of Private-Sector Forecast Uncertainty
- Chart 2.9 Employment Projected to Recover
- Chart 2.10 Ontario Home Resale Market
- Chart 2.11 Range of Ontario Real GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Program Expense Growth excluding COVID‑19 Time-Limited Funding
- Chart 3.2 Composition of Revenue, 2021–22
- Chart 3.3 Composition of Total Expense, 2021–22
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Range of Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 2020–21 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario’s Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rates
- Chart 4.8 Interest on Debt Expense
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.13 Interest on Debt-to-Revenue
Updated: March 24, 2021
Published: March 24, 2021