The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance
Table of Contents
Minister’s Foreword
- A Plan to Protect Ontario
- Fortifying Ontario’s Industrial Base
- Building Ontario for Growth
- Respecting Taxpayers
- Our Plan to Protect Ontario in Action
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Respecting Taxpayer Dollars
- Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
- Borrowing and Debt Management
- Ontario’s Capital Plan
- Standing Up for the People of Ontario as Part of a United Team Canada
Chapter 1: A Plan to Protect Ontario
Section A: Protect Ontario: Fortify Ontario’s Industrial Base
- Defending Ontario’s Auto and Steel Industries
- Protecting Ontario’s Forest Sector
- Prioritizing Ontario Businesses with the Buy Ontario Act
- Supporting Tariff-Impacted Workers with POWER Centres
- Supporting Businesses Through the Protect Ontario Financing Program
- Investing in Ontario’s Future Economy with the Protect Ontario Account Investment Fund
- Helping Ontario Businesses Pivot and Expand to New Markets
- Helping Communities and Local Industries Respond to Trade Disruptions
Section B: Protect Ontario: Build Ontario for Growth
The Plan to Protect Ontario in Action
- Unleashing Ontario’s Critical Minerals Advantage
- Powering Ontario’s Economy
- Securing Canadian Energy Sovereignty
- Attracting Jobs of the Future in Artificial Intelligence
- Growing Ontario’s Defence Industry
- Reinforcing Ontario’s Leadership in the Life Sciences Sector
- Cultivating Growth in Ontario’s Agri-Food Sector
- Strengthening Ontario’s Tourism and Cultural Sectors
Enabling the Jobs of the Future
- Making Ontario More Competitive and More Productive Than Ever
- Building a Stronger, More Competitive Economy Through a Multi-Year Tax Action Plan
- Lowering Costs to Build a More Competitive Investment Environment
- Building New Trade Opportunities for Ontario
- Protecting the People of Ontario as Part of a United Team Canada
- Protecting Ontario’s Workforce
- Investing in New Opportunities to Drive Growth
- Supporting Entrepreneurs to Grow and Succeed
Protecting Ontario by Keeping Costs Down
- Supporting Families and Individuals
- Taking Action on Housing
- Saving on Energy Costs
- Lowering the Cost of Commuting
Improving Capital Markets and Financial Services
- Joining the Securities Passport System and Promoting Modern Regulatory Practices
- Protecting Consumers in the Life and Health Insurance Sector
Strengthening Ontario’s Pension Landscape
- Expanding the Jointly Sponsored Pension Plan Conversion Framework
- Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System Governance Review Implementation Update
Delivering an Expanded Alcohol Marketplace
Build Ontario for Growth
- Building Highways
- Building Transit
- Advancing Infrastructure Projects with the Building Ontario Fund
- Investing in the Community Sport and Recreation Infrastructure Fund
- Renewing Critical Public Infrastructure
Protect Ontario’s Borders and Communities
- Protecting Ontario’s Borders
- Expanding Capacity in Ontario Jails
- Building Safer Streets and Protecting Taxpayers
- Strengthening Cannabis Enforcement
- Expanding Homelessness and Addiction Recovery Treatment Hubs
- Strengthening Commercial Driver Training and Road Safety
- Advancing the Implementation of Ontario's Beneficial Ownership Registry
Protect Ontario's Public Services
- Connecting Everyone in Ontario to Primary Care
- Training and Retaining Health Care Providers Across Ontario
- Supporting Access to Over-the-Counter Hearing Aids
- Calling for Fair and Sustainable Federal Funding for Health Care
- Building and Expanding Hospitals
- Building Long-Term Care Homes
- Investing in Schools and Child Care Spaces
- Expanding Services for Children and Youth with Autism
- Respecting Taxpayer Dollars
- Reducing Error, Waste and Abuse
- Advancing Digital Credentials
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Introduction
- Key Changes in 2026–27 Since the 2026 Budget
- Medium-Term Fiscal Plan
- Transparency and Risks
- Details of Ontario’s Finances
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Introduction
- Borrowing Program
- Ontario Bond Frameworks
- Cost of Debt
- Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels
- Debt Burden Reduction Strategy
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
- Overview
- Lowering the Cost of Capital Investments in Ontario
- Enhancing Support Through Ontario’s Research and Development Tax Credits
- Providing Temporary Enhanced Harmonized Sales Tax Relief for New Homes
- Eliminating the Harmonized Sales Tax New Housing Rebate and New Residential Rental Property Rebate
- Streamlining Municipal Education Property Tax Remittances
- Providing Transparency Through a Centralized Online Property Assessment Roll
- Providing Assessment Stability
- Improving the Presentation of the Taxation Transparency Report
- Advancing Ontario’s Beneficial Ownership Registry
- Summary of Measures
- Technical Amendments
Consultations on A Plan to Build Ontario
List of Tables
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Economic Outlook in the 2026 Budget Compared to the 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (FES)
- Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan — Details
- Change in the Fiscal Outlook Since the 2026 Budget
- Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
- Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios
- 2026–27 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
- Infrastructure Expenditures
Chapter 1: A Plan to Protect Ontario
- Table 1.1 School Projects Opening for the 2026–27 School Year
- Table 1.2 Continuing to Get Shovels in the Ground to Build More Schools
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Table 2.1 Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2 Economic Outlook in the 2026 Budget Compared to the 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (FES)
- Table 2.3 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- Table 2.4 Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth
- Table 2.5 External Factors
- Table 2.6 Ontario’s Economic Outlook
- Table 2.7 Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios
- Table 2.8 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Table 3.1 Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan — Details
- Table 3.2 2026–27 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- Table 3.3 Key Changes to 2026–27 Revenue Projections
- Table 3.4 Key Changes to 2026–27 Total Expense Projections
- Table 3.5 Change in the Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook Since the 2026 Budget
- Table 3.6 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
- Table 3.7 Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Table 3.8 Total Revenue
- Table 3.9 Total Expense
- Table 3.10 Infrastructure Expenditures
- Table 3.11 10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Table 4.1 Key Debt Management Indicators
- Table 4.2 2026–27 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook
- Table 4.3 Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures
- Table 4.4 Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
List of Charts
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
- Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2026 Budget
- Comparative Cumulative Growth Rate of Public Sector Employees
- Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios
- Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
Chapter 1: A Plan to Protect Ontario
- Chart 1.1 Building Roads to the Ring of Fire
- Chart 1.2 Proposed Route for the Northern Shield Energy Corridor
- Chart 1.3 Enhancing Ontario’s Tax Competitiveness for Investment Attraction
- Chart 1.4 Supporting Ontario Businesses
- Chart 1.5 Select Measures That Provide Relief to Families and Individuals
- Chart 1.6 Provincial Support to Municipal Sector
- Chart 1.7 Highway 413 Project Route
- Chart 1.8 Highway 425: Bradford Bypass Project Route
- Chart 1.9 Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
- Chart 1.10 Progress to Date: More than Half a Million Ontarians Attached to Primary Care
- Chart 1.11 Growth in Ontario Health Sector Expense Compared to Federal Health Transfers
- Chart 1.12 Comparative Cumulative Growth Rate of Public Sector Employees
Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
- Chart 2.1 Ontario Quarterly Real GDP Growth
- Chart 2.2 Ontario Unemployment Rate
- Chart 2.3 Ontario Inflation is Lower than Canada’s
- Chart 2.4 Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Projected to Rise
- Chart 2.5 Global Real GDP Growth Projections
- Chart 2.6 Bank of Canada Maintains Policy Interest Rate
- Chart 2.7 Canada-United States Exchange Rate
- Chart 2.8 Labour Market Expected to Strengthen
- Chart 2.9 Ontario Inflation Forecast to Stabilize at Target
- Chart 2.10 Housing Market Projected to Recover
- Chart 2.11 Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- Chart 3.1 Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2026 Budget
- Chart 3.2 Composition of Total Revenue, 2026–27
- Chart 3.3 Composition of Total Expense, 2026–27
Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
- Chart 4.1 Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing
- Chart 4.2 2026–27 Borrowing
- Chart 4.3 Domestic and International Borrowing
- Chart 4.4 Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category
- Chart 4.5 Ontario Green Bond Issues
- Chart 4.6 Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
- Chart 4.7 Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rate Forecast
- Chart 4.8 Comparison of Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Forecast
- Chart 4.9 Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings
- Chart 4.10 Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels
- Chart 4.11 Ratio Definitions
- Chart 4.12 Net Debt-to-GDP
- Chart 4.13 Net Debt-to-Revenue
- Chart 4.14 Interest-to-Revenue
Updated: October 29, 2026
Published: October 29, 2026